Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Erin Blanchfield
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | Rose Namajunas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Manon Fiorot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Taila Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Jessica Andrade | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:37) |
| 2022-11-12 | Molly McCann | W | Submission - Kimura (R1, 3:37) |
Last 5 Fights - Tracy Cortez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Viviane Araujo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Rose Namajunas | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-07 | Melissa Gatto | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-04-17 | Justine Kish | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Erin Blanchfield advantage: 10.6%Cardio Score
Erin Blanchfield advantage: 9.3%Overall Rating
Erin Blanchfield advantage: 9.9%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (72 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (85 vs 74). Reflects complete skillset balance between offensive output, accuracy, defense, and efficiency.
💪 Cardio Score
Derived from average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish rate. Blanchfield's higher finish rate and pace yield a small advantage over Cortez's decision-heavy tendency.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio scores. Represents combined quality of technique and endurance profiles.
Striking Composite
Erin Blanchfield advantage: 5.9%Grappling Composite
Erin Blanchfield advantage: 14.9%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted mix of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and SApM. Blanchfield's volume (5.24 SLpM) edges Cortez's precision (49% StrAcc) over three rounds.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Includes TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15. Blanchfield's 80% TDDef and 0.8 Sub/15 create decisive control and finishing pressure versus Cortez's 62% TDDef and 0.35 Sub/15.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Cortez has slight height and leg‑reach advantages that can help at range, but Blanchfield’s cage craft, clinch entries, and fence control typically neutralize distance quickly in a large cage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Volume vs precision: Blanchfield (5.24 SLpM) applies pace; Cortez (49% StrAcc, lower SApM) lands clean. Grappling is the separator—80% TDDef and 0.8 Sub/15 give Blanchfield sustained control and finish equity.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Underhooks vs level changes, fence escapes vs rides, and re‑entries after breaks. If Cortez resets space consistently, rounds stay close; if Blanchfield chains clinch‑to‑mat, control minutes accrue.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Blanchfield’s control and submission threat; Cortez’s best lane is a clean, range‑first decision. Projection: Blanchfield banks rounds via clinch‑to‑mat sequences with live sub threats.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: +150
FAIR VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: -150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 64% | Market: -180
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Erin Blanchfield
Minute-winning via control and pressure
Occasional ground-and-pound finishes
Primary finishing path via BJJ
💥Outcome Distribution - Tracy Cortez
Counter opportunities off failed entries
Range discipline and takedown denial
Low submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎯Progressive Dominance - Erin Blanchfield
- • Chain takedowns from clinch entries
- • Ride time and control to bank minutes
- • Hunt submissions when entries present
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tracy Cortez
- • Control range; jab and low kicks to reset
- • Counter level changes with uppercuts/knees
- • Prioritize underhooks; avoid fence traps
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Grappling control edge with decision-heavy opponent
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic edge for Blanchfield in control phases
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with strong TDDef (80%)
- • Proven submission pathways (0.8 Sub/15)
- • Control minutes favored over 3 rounds
- • Quality wins vs top opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cortez's takedown efficiency (48% TDAcc)
- • Decision variance in close rounds
- • Lower SApM could blunt volume edges
- • MSG big stage volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Blanchfield owns the control and submission threat profile while Cortez brings precise, decision-driven striking. Over three rounds, the model leans 75–25 toward Blanchfield with decision and submission as primary routes.
Prediction: Blanchfield by Decision or Submission. Live hedge: Cortez Decision.