Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Erin Blanchfield
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Tracy Cortez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Erin Blanchfield
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | Rose Namajunas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Manon Fiorot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Taila Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Jessica Andrade | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:37) |
| 2022-11-12 | Molly McCann | W | Submission - Kimura (R1, 3:37) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tracy Cortez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Viviane Araujo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Rose Namajunas | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-07 | Melissa Gatto | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-04-17 | Justine Kish | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (72 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (85 vs 74). Reflects complete skillset balance between offensive output, accuracy, defense, and efficiency.
💪Cardio Score
Derived from average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish rate. Blanchfield's higher finish rate and pace yield a small advantage over Cortez's decision-heavy tendency.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio scores. Represents combined quality of technique and endurance profiles.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted mix of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and SApM. Blanchfield's volume (5.24 SLpM) edges Cortez's precision (49% StrAcc) over three rounds.
🤼Grappling Composite
Includes TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15. Blanchfield's 80% TDDef and 0.8 Sub/15 create decisive control and finishing pressure versus Cortez's 62% TDDef and 0.35 Sub/15.
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Cortez has slight height and leg‑reach advantages that can help at range, but Blanchfield's cage craft, clinch entries, and fence control typically neutralize distance quickly in a large cage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Volume vs precision: Blanchfield (5.24 SLpM) applies pace; Cortez (49% StrAcc, lower SApM) lands clean. Grappling is the separator—80% TDDef and 0.8 Sub/15 give Blanchfield sustained control and finish equity.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Underhooks vs level changes, fence escapes vs rides, and re‑entries after breaks. If Cortez resets space consistently, rounds stay close; if Blanchfield chains clinch‑to‑mat, control minutes accrue.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Blanchfield's control and submission threat; Cortez's best lane is a clean, range‑first decision. Projection: Blanchfield banks rounds via clinch‑to‑mat sequences with live sub threats.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: +150
FAIR VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: -150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 64% | Market: -180
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Erin Blanchfield
Minute-winning via control and pressure
Occasional ground-and-pound finishes
Primary finishing path via BJJ
💥Outcome Distribution - Tracy Cortez
Counter opportunities off failed entries
Range discipline and takedown denial
Low submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎯Progressive Dominance - Erin Blanchfield
- • Chain takedowns from clinch entries
- • Ride time and control to bank minutes
- • Hunt submissions when entries present
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tracy Cortez
- • Control range; jab and low kicks to reset
- • Counter level changes with uppercuts/knees
- • Prioritize underhooks; avoid fence traps
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Grappling control edge with decision-heavy opponent
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic edge for Blanchfield in control phases
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with strong TDDef (80%)
- • Proven submission pathways (0.8 Sub/15)
- • Control minutes favored over 3 rounds
- • Quality wins vs top opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cortez's takedown efficiency (48% TDAcc)
- • Decision variance in close rounds
- • Lower SApM could blunt volume edges
- • MSG big stage volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Blanchfield owns the control and submission threat profile while Cortez brings precise, decision-driven striking. Over three rounds, the model leans 75–25 toward Blanchfield with decision and submission as primary routes.
Prediction: Blanchfield by Decision or Submission. Live hedge: Cortez Decision.