Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
Madison Square Garden • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
Rising Contender
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Pound-for-Pound Elite
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jack Della Maddalena
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Belal Muhammad | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Gilbert Burns | W | KO/TKO - Knee and Elbows (R3, 3:43) |
| 2023-09-16 | Kevin Holland | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Bassil Hafez | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-11 | Randy Brown | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:13) |
Last 5 Fights - Islam Makhachev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Renato Moicano | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R1, 4:05) |
| 2024-06-01 | Dustin Poirier | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R5, 2:42) |
| 2023-10-21 | Alexander Volkanovski | W | KO/TKO - Head Kick (R1, 3:06) |
| 2023-02-11 | Alexander Volkanovski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | Charles Oliveira | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 3:16) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (38 vs 88). Balances overall striking effectiveness with complete grappling dominance to measure core technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace through five rounds in a large 30-foot Octagon.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of each fighter combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jack Della Maddalena Key Advantages
6.84 vs 2.63 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy and strong 64% defense.
Larger 30-foot Octagon and 73" reach enable distance striking lanes and lateral exits.
Career 67% KO/TKO rate and multi-shot combinations punish failed entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
0.16 TD/15 and 0.16 Sub/15 offer little deterrence versus Makhachev's chain wrestling.
Clinch entries into inside trips nullify space, forcing defensive grappling exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain distance with jabs and body/leg work, sprawl first layer of shots, punish entries.
Front-load volume to build lead and force desperate shots in a large cage.
🚀 Islam Makhachev Key Advantages
54% takedown accuracy and 91% defense enable control against all archetypes.
Extremely low strikes absorbed per minute protects cardio and preserves dominance late.
Feints into level changes, cage pins, trips, and rides that accumulate control and attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
2.63 SLpM is at risk of being outpaced if level changes are consistently stuffed.
Mistimed shots into counters can create momentum swings against a high-power boxer.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint to draw counters, level change under, finish singles/doubles, ride to attempts.
Keep risk profile low on feet; selective strikes to set up next grappling layer.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Physical Dynamics
The large 30-foot Octagon at Madison Square Garden marginally favors range strikers. Jack's 73" reach and high pace can leverage the space, while Islam's compact build and explosive entries have historically overcome distance through chain wrestling and clinch rides.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striker vs grappler dynamics are stark in the data. Jack owns major volume advantages on the feet (6.84 SLpM), while Islam's wrestling (3.2 TD/15 at 54% with 1.13 Sub/15) is a decisive lever. Islam's 91% TDD also limits reversal threats, making control-to-submission paths robust across rounds.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early rounds test takedown defense layers and range control. If Jack can stuff initial entries and maintain center, his volume can bank rounds. If Islam secures top positions and mat returns, attrition and submission chains skew the rest of the fight heavily in his favor.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Jack's path: keep it standing, sprawl-and-brawl, and build damage with combinations to force a stoppage. Islam's path: force clinches, convert takedowns, ride positions, and progress to chokes or late-control decisions.
🏁Final Prediction
Model leans to Islam (70-30) due to dominant grappling metrics and elite damage control. Jack's volume and power remain his strongest equalizers, particularly early and in space. Prediction: Makhachev by Submission (Rounds 2-4) or clear Decision.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
Market Props (reference)
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: implied ~60% (monitor for better than -150)
GOOD VALUE
Model: -233 | BetOnline: fluctuates; value if ≤ -200
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: balanced but skewed by sub threat
⚠️Key Market Notes
- • Moneyline elasticity - Expect wide moves as limits rise; target best price.
- • Submission clustering - Islam sub props often steam; act early.
- • Jack KO long number - Monitor for outsized prices given early power.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jack Della Maddalena
Volume and accuracy create stopping windows
Volume outworks if TDs denied
Rare counter-sub scenarios
💥Outcome Distribution - Islam Makhachev
Primary path via control and pressure
Sustained control with limited damage taken
Ground strikes or opportunistic counters
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Jack volume edge; Islam reads entries (20% finish window combined)
- • 5-10 minutes: Islam TD chains start sticking; control time grows (25%)
- • 10-15 minutes: Momentum hinge; submission attempts increase (25%)
- • 15-25 minutes: Islam experience and control decide outcomes (30%)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong confidence given grappling edges; weight move introduces modest uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • 3.2 TD/15 with 54% accuracy and 1.13 Sub/15
- • 91% takedown defense and elite control retention
- • 1.55 SApM keeps damage minimal across five rounds
- • Recent wins over elite wrestlers and strikers
- • Proven championship rounds experience
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Jack's early volume and power with reach in large cage
- • Weight class transition dynamics
- • Potential variance in judging if control without damage
- • Early defensive reads required to avoid counters
🏁Executive Summary
A classic striker vs grappler clash where the numbers sharply favor Makhachev's positional control and submission threat. Della Maddalena's volume and precision remain live early, especially in the large cage, but control sequences are projected to decide a majority of outcomes.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by Submission (Round 2-4) or Decision. Live entry opportunities on Islam sub props; watch Jack KO pricing for outsized numbers.