Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola
UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Performance Snapshot
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Snapshot
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kyle Nelson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Steve Garcia | L | KO/TKO - Elbows and Punches (R1, 3:59) |
| 2024-03-30 | Bill Algeo | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Fernando Padilla | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Blake Bilder | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-04 | Doo Ho Choi | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Matt Frevola
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | Fares Ziam | L | KO/TKO - Knee (R3, 2:59) |
| 2023-11-11 | Benoit Saint Denis | L | KO/TKO - Head Kick (R1, 1:31) |
| 2023-05-06 | Drew Dober | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:08) |
| 2022-11-12 | Ottman Azaitar | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 2:30) |
| 2022-01-22 | Genaro Valdez | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:15) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite; gauges complete technical toolkit.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight time, striking pace, takedown pace, and finish rate across UFC bouts.
🎯 Overall Rating
Mean of Technical and Cardio scores; a quick, holistic quality gauge.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kyle Nelson
Outside striking game in large cage
Counter windows in entries
Opportunistic grappling if Frevola over-commits
💥Outcome Distribution - Matt Frevola
Pocket pressure and ground strikes
Damage differential and control
Occasional club-and-sub sequences
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Peak Frevola danger—pressure and power surges (finish-heavy).
- • 5-10 minutes: Momentum swing window—range vs entries.
- • 10-15 minutes: Nelson's best scoring stretch if discipline holds at range.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Stylistic Dynamics
Classic range striker vs pressure brawler-wrestler in a 30-ft cage. Nelson's distance tools and first-layer TDD try to keep it long; Frevola's pressure bends distance to pocket exchanges and opportunistic control.
🎯Key Metrics
- Defense & damage: Frevola 3.69 SApM / 57% StrDef vs Nelson 4.72 / 51% → net mitigation for Frevola.
- Power threat: Frevola knockdowns ~1.12 vs Nelson 0.00 → genuine finishing gravity for Frevola.
- Wrestling pressure: Frevola 2.39 TD/15 @ 39% vs Nelson 1.06 @ 20% → location control despite Nelson's solid TDD.
🏁Final Prediction
Lean to Frevola (65-35). In 100 sims, he forces pocket enough to generate damage swings and control; Nelson's range minutes are real but volatile once distance is bent. Prediction: Frevola by TKO in R1–R2, with Nelson's best path a disciplined decision at range.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Aligned with 44% method probability
GOOD VALUE
58% finishing profile within 2.5 rounds
SLIGHT VALUE
16% method probability, big-cage path
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Frevola power not fully priced against Nelson's elevated SApM.
- • Large cage dynamics may slightly compress early finish odds vs market perception.
- • Nelson decision equity higher than casual narrative in a disciplined range fight.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Pressure-and-power profile aligns with matchup dynamics
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking defense and knockdown threat
- • Chain wrestling volume and control potential
- • Nelson's higher SApM vs pocket pressure
- • Model favors Frevola 70-30 overall
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Large cage can enable Nelson's range game
- • First-wave swarm fails → momentum swings late
- • Single-shot counters during entries
- • Nelson's resilient three-round cardio
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup tilts toward Matt Frevola due to pressure striking, knockdown equity, and takedown chains that historically trouble range-first lightweights. Kyle Nelson retains a live decision path in a disciplined outside fight, especially as rounds progress.
Verdict: Matt Frevola by TKO (R1-2). Nelson's best alternative outcome is a competitive decision via range control and late-round volume.