Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Reinier de Ridder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Robert Whittaker | W | Decision (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-03 | Bo Nickal | W | TKO (Knee to the Body) (R2, 1:53) |
| 2025-01-18 | Kevin Holland | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-11-09 | Gerald Meerschaert | W | Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) (R3, 1:44) |
| 2024-07-16 | Magomedmurad Khasaev | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:24) |
Last 5 Fights - Brendan Allen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Paul Craig | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R3, 0:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Reinier de Ridder advantage: 25.9%Cardio Score
Brendan Allen advantage: 4.0%Overall Rating
Reinier de Ridder advantage: 12.2%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (54.2 vs 52.6) and Grappling Composite (61.3 vs 39.3). Measures complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking pace, takedown rate, with slight penalty for pure finishers. Endurance and sustained pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores to provide a holistic capability view.
Striking Composite
Reinier de Ridder advantage: 3.0%Grappling Composite
Reinier de Ridder advantage: 56.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Accuracy, Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute to measure striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Combines Takedowns per 15, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense, and Submissions per 15 to evaluate grappling.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a 30‑ft cage, Allen gains a touch of lateral room to make de Ridder chase entries. However, de Ridder's southpaw counters into step‑in clinches and body‑lock chains are less fence‑dependent, so the cage size advantage is marginal rather than decisive.
🎯Technical Breakdown
De Ridder owns the wrestling volume and control (+3.21 TDs/15), higher accuracy and lower damage intake (SApM). Allen's best weapons are scramble‑borne submissions (Sub/15 nearly level) and proven 5‑round durability, especially if he can force more stand‑ups than mat time in the early half of the fight.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First‑layer takedown defense for Allen (57% historically), Allen's survival and reset mechanics after conceding takedowns, and shot selection from de Ridder (open‑space body‑locks over risky singles). Pace on the feet matters: Allen can bank optics with safe volume when he keeps entries honest.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor de Ridder; moments favor Allen. With superior control of location and lower defensive liability, de Ridder projects ahead over 5 rounds unless Allen consistently scrambles free and wins optics. Projection: de Ridder by Submission or a control‑heavy Decision; live hedge: Allen Decision.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - de Ridder
When rides don't convert to finishes
Attritional TKO from top pressure
Arm-triangle/back takes convert often
💥Outcome Distribution - Allen
Striking bursts catch entries
Minutes banked with clinch control
Scramble-borne neck/back takes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
🎯Progressive Dominance - de Ridder
- • Minute-winning clinch to mat
- • Body-lock chains and head-and-arm threats
- • Risk-managed entries to avoid guillotines
⚡Window of Opportunity - Allen
- • Scramble submissions when rides extend
- • Long jab and teep to slow entries
- • Late-round output surges for judges
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7.5/10 - Size, accuracy/defense gap, and TD volume vs TD defense
Confidence Level
Aligned edges with scrambly risk
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher accuracy with lower SApM
- • Massive TD volume edge (4.74 vs 1.53)
- • Size and reach leverage in clinch
- • Proven submission conversions
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Allen scramble submissions
- • 30-ft cage adds lateral space
- • 5 rounds increase variance
🏁Executive Summary
The model leans 64–36 toward de Ridder: location control via clinch-to-mat entries, accuracy/defense edge, and lower SApM. Allen's decision and submission paths remain live through scrambles and late-round optics.
Prediction: de Ridder by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Allen Decision.