Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Charles Jourdain
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | Victor Henry | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:43) |
| 2024-06-29 | Jean Silva | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 1:22) |
| 2024-01-20 | Sean Woodson | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Ricardo Ramos | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:12) |
| 2023-05-06 | Kron Gracie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Davey Grant
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Ramon Taveras | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Daniel Marcos | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Raphael Assuncao | W | Submission - Inverted Triangle Choke (R3, 4:43) |
| 2022-05-14 | Louis Smolka | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 0:49) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Charles Jourdain advantage: 3.3%Cardio Score
Davey Grant advantage: 5.1%Overall Rating
Davey Grant advantage: 4.5%Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large Vancouver Octagon, distance striking favors Jourdain's volume and switch stance. Grant's clinch entries and pace changes can slow exchanges to bank minutes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Jourdain holds the striking edge (SLpM 5.43, Acc 49%, Sub/15 0.59). Grant brings better wrestling metrics (TD15 1.14, TDAcc 40%, TDDef 61%) and lower strikes absorbed per minute.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early output and body/leg targeting from Jourdain vs. Grant's clinch-wrestle disruption. Opportunistic guillotines punish mistimed shots.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Grant's cardio/wrestling mix; moments favor Jourdain's striking/sub threats. Projection: Jourdain 65–35 with decision and KO/sub as primary routes.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 7% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs Control – Books may undervalue Grant's cardio/control paths while overweighting Jourdain's moments.
- • Grappling insurance – Grant's TD metrics offer minute-winning insurance that isn’t always priced.
- • Finish volatility – Early exchanges carry KO/sub threat that widens variance.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jourdain
Minute-winning at range
Clean entries create finishing chances
Opportunistic guillotines / front chokes
💥Outcome Distribution - Grant
Counter exchanges / late power
Control and cardio in later minutes
Lower submission attempt rate historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Grant
- • Late minutes: Build control with clinch-wrestle to swing judges.
- • Counter lanes: Intercept entries with hooks/overhands.
- • Mix levels: Keep Jourdain guessing to dampen volume.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jourdain
- • Minute winning: Jab, body/leg kicks, and stance switches.
- • Pace control: Threaten guillotines to deter level changes.
- • Defense first: Exit clean to avoid counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 for a 3-round matchup - Volume edge with live wrestling counters
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Jourdain with cardio/control paths for Grant.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM and accuracy (5.43, 49%)
- • Submission threat (0.59/15)
- • Youth and pace over 3 rounds
- • Grant absorbs fewer but throws less accurately
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Grant's wrestling metrics (TD15 1.14, TDAcc 40%)
- • Late-round control swings tight rounds
- • Jourdain's TDD 47% can be targeted
- • Bantamweight volatility in exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Jourdain owns the sustainable minute‑winning striking profile and carries real submission threat on shots. Grant brings cardio and wrestling insurance that can flip close rounds.
Prediction: Jourdain by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Grant Decision.