Kyle Prepolec vs Drew Dober
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kyle Prepolec
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Benoit Saint Denis | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 2:35) |
| 2022-03-04 | Shane Campbell | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-11-19 | Michael Dufort | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-09-14 | Austin Hubbard | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-05-04 | Nordine Taleb | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Drew Dober
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Manuel Torres | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2024-07-13 | Jean Silva | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 1:28) |
| 2024-02-03 | Renato Moicano | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Ricky Glenn | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:36) |
| 2023-05-06 | Matt Frevola | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:08) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Drew Dober advantage: 61.9%Cardio Score
Drew Dober advantage: 30.9%Overall Rating
Drew Dober advantage: 44.3%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (45 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (38 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Drew Dober advantage: 66.7%Grappling Composite
Drew Dober advantage: 57.9%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Prepolec’s footwork and outside kicking lanes help early, but Dober’s pressure and compact entries typically swing minutes in close exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Dober owns the output and accuracy edge (4.36 SLpM vs 2.87; 40% vs 35% accuracy) with better TD insurance (0.66 per 15 min) against Prepolec’s 40% TDD.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Prepolec must manage distance and avoid pocket wars. Dober’s head‑body work and occasional TDs pressure the guard and cardio over 3 rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes and moments lean Dober. Projection: Dober by KO/TKO or decision; Prepolec’s best path is a measured low‑tempo decision.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Experience gap – Dober’s UFC sample and proven output vs Prepolec’s limited top‑level success.
- • Grappling insurance – TD threat vs 40% TDD is under‑priced if standing volume stalls.
- • Power dynamic – Dober’s KD pressure shapes live prices; early reads can snowball.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dober
Power edge and pressure entries
Minute control via volume and defense
Opportunistic grappling lanes late
💥Outcome Distribution - Prepolec
Best path via range control
Counter windows only
Low submission threat in UFC sample
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Dober
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest KO equity as pressure builds.
- • Body work: Mix head‑body to slow footwork.
- • Fence clinch: Create TD threats to bank minutes.
🎯Survival and Edges - Prepolec
- • Range management: Jabs, calf‑kicks, and resets.
- • Low‑risk counters: Avoid pocket trades.
- • Defensive grappling: Deny clinch control.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 9/10 — Volume, power, and durability favor Dober
Confidence Level
Strong statistical and experiential advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with comparable accuracy
- • Proven UFC sample (25 fights)
- • Better takedown insurance and defense
- • Strong finishing history
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Big cage favors evasion
- • Southpaw vs southpaw counters
- • Recent skid vs rising opponents
🏁Executive Summary
Dober owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile and more dangerous power. Over three rounds, the model leans 82–18 toward Dober with KO/TKO and decision as primary routes.
Prediction: Drew Dober by KO/TKO or Decision. Long shot hedge: Prepolec by Decision.