Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Melissa Croden
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-25 | Ashley Deen | W | TKO - Knees and Elbows (R2, 0:22) |
| 2023-10-06 | Katharina Lehner | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 3:20) |
| 2023-04-21 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-27 | Cornelia Holm | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 3:22) |
| 2022-01-15 | Jackie MacLean | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:59) |
Last 5 Fights - Tainara Lisboa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Luana Santos | L | Submission - Keylock (R2, 4:59) |
| 2023-10-14 | Ravena Oliveira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Jessica-Rose Clark | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 4:20) |
| 2022-04-08 | Conceicao Barros Oliveira | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 4:20) |
| 2021-09-04 | Gloria Natalia Vaz Amaral | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:48) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Tainara Lisboa advantage: 4.2%Cardio Score
Melissa Croden advantage: 2.6%Overall Rating
Tainara Lisboa advantage: 0.7%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Croden's striking power vs. Lisboa's verified grappling creates a close technical balance.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish rate. Lisboa sustains pace over longer fights; Croden wins fast.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores, reflecting well-rounded effectiveness across phases and fight pacing.
Striking Composite
Melissa Croden advantage: 21.4%Grappling Composite
Tainara Lisboa advantage: 33.3%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Croden's reach aids distance control, but Lisboa's pressure entries and top control trend the fight toward clinch and ground phases.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Croden offers power and length at range; Lisboa carries superior takedown volume and submission threat. Defensive wrestling is the hinge.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Entry denial vs. level changes; clinch breaks vs. fence wrestling; early striking bursts vs. late control time.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Lisboa's grappling; moments favor Croden's power. Projection: Lisboa by Submission or Decision; Croden KO live early.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 44% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappling leverage – Sub threat (44%) may be underpriced relative to debutant's TDD.
- • Octagon experience – Lisboa's 3 UFC fights vs Croden's debut often matters in minutes.
- • Entry exchanges – Early KO lanes for Croden balanced by superior top control for Lisboa.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Verified grappling edge vs debutant
Confidence Level
Strong model lean to Lisboa via subs/control
✅Supporting Factors
- • UFC experience advantage (3 fights)
- • Superior takedown volume and submission rate
- • Proven to win minutes via control time
- • Defensive metrics (TDDef 58%) suitable vs debutant
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Croden's early KO power and length
- • Debut volatility and unknowns
- • Potential cardio variance in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Lisboa owns the sustainable minute-winning profile through takedowns and submission chains, while Croden carries genuine early knockout danger from range.
Prediction: Lisboa by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Croden KO R1.