Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Azamat Bekoev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Ryan Loder | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 2:44) |
| 2025-01-18 | Zachary Reese | W | KO (punches) (R1, 3:04) |
| 2024-06-22 | Chauncey Foxworth | W | KO (punch) (R2, 4:32) |
| 2023-12-15 | Lucas Fernando | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-16 | Dylan Budka | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Yousri Belgaroui
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-10 | Taiga Iwasaki | W | TKO (punches) (R3, 2:34) |
| 2024-02-18 | Ahmed Sami | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-29 | Giorgi Kvelidze | W | TKO (knee to the body and punches) (R1, 4:59) |
| 2023-08-29 | Marco Tulio | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-24 | Stefan Pretorius | W | TKO (knee and punches) (R2, 0:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Azamat Bekoev advantage: 20.0%Cardio Score
Azamat Bekoev advantage: 18.1%Overall Rating
Azamat Bekoev advantage: 19.0%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (74 vs 55). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and the ability to maintain pace throughout three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Azamat Bekoev advantage: 9.3%Grappling Composite
Azamat Bekoev advantage: 34.5%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Big-cage movement favors the rangy striker, but Bekoev's pressure and wrestling entries force clinch/ground phases that erode distance advantages.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Bekoev carries a higher volume profile (7.59 SLpM) with decisive takedown threats (2.59 TD/15min). Belgaroui owns better strike defense (58%) with long-range weapons to stall entries.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Bekoev's level changes off feints vs. Belgaroui's jab/low-kick cadence. Clinch breaks, fence wrestling, and re-entries decide momentum in a 3-round sprint.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Bekoev through control and volume; moments favor Belgaroui in open space. Projection: Bekoev by KO/TKO or a control-heavy decision if takedown entries land.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Wrestling threat undervalued – Bekoev's TD and control equity isn't fully priced.
- • Range volatility – Belgaroui's early distance success can swing prices.
- • Small UFC samples – Data variance can widen true odds bands.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bekoev
Control-heavy minutes via takedowns & clinch
Ground-and-pound or counter entries
Rare sub attempts
💥Outcome Distribution - Belgaroui
Distance striking, opportunistic counters
Jab/leg-kick game keeps range
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Belgaroui
- • First 4–7 minutes: Best chance to establish distance striking.
- • Intercept kicks: Jab/low-kick to disrupt level changes.
- • Circle off fence: Avoid clinch ties and resets.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Bekoev
- • Minute winning: TDs, ride time, and clinch breaks.
- • Pace control: Chain wrestle when range striking stalls.
- • Defense first: Exit safely after combos to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Pressure wrestling and volume vs. range striking
Confidence Level
Strong stylistic edge for Bekoev; small sample risk acknowledged.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM (7.59 vs 4.43) with takedown threat
- • Dominant TD defense (100%) and control capability
- • Proven early finishing profile (R1 distribution)
- • Versatility across striking and grappling phases
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Belgaroui reach advantage (79" vs 72")
- • Range striking can stall entries in big cage
- • Small UFC sample size for both fighters
- • Middleweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Bekoev owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile via takedowns, clinch control, and higher output, while Belgaroui carries real distance striking danger. The model leans 75–25 toward Bekoev.
Prediction: Bekoev by KO/TKO or Decision. Live hedge: Belgaroui KO if range is maintained early.