Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Danny Barlow
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Sam Patterson | L | KO - Punches (R1, 3:10) |
| 2024-08-10 | Nikolay Veretennikov | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Josh Quinlan | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 1:18) |
| 2023-09-26 | Raheam Forest | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:19) |
| 2023-07-14 | Jarious Gill | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:57) |
Last 5 Fights - Djorden Santos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Ozzy Diaz | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Will Currie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-24 | Filipe Moitinho | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-19 | Miguel Firmino | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-14 | Daniel Chicao | W | TKO - Punch (R2, 4:59) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Danny Barlow advantage: 5.9%Cardio Score
Djorden Santos advantage: 5.1%Overall Rating
Even advantage: 0.0%Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Balances offensive precision and defensive responsibility on the feet with takedown/submission capability to reflect complete technical skill.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking work-rate (SLpM), takedown rate, and finish tendencies. Measures sustained output, pace control, and ability to keep form across rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores to provide a holistic view combining skill proficiency and physical conditioning.
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Captures offensive output, precision, and defensive quality.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submissions per 15min. Evaluates complete grappling game across offense and defense.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the big cage, Barlow's 79" reach and straight‑line entries favor outside striking. Added exit space reduces forced clinch time, tilting early minutes to his jab and counters if he maintains distance discipline.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Barlow's precision/defense (51% Acc, lower SApM) plus 100% TDD matches well versus Santos' high volume (7.2 SLpM) and modest mixed‑level attempts. If shot selection beats pace, Barlow banks minutes; if pressure collapses range, Santos' activity becomes decisive.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Distance maintenance vs forward pressure; first‑contact accuracy vs pocket trades; denying fence time. Santos' best chances arise in the pocket or along the fence; Barlow's come from clean first contacts and disciplined exits.
🏁Final Prediction
Lean Barlow on precision and range control, with KO equity early and decision equity if pace stays measured. Santos remains live via pace/pressure swings. Projection: Barlow by Decision or late KO/TKO; Santos' path is sustained pressure and pocket exchanges.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Danny Barlow
Range management and accuracy
Clean entries create finishing chances
Occasional submission route
💥Outcome Distribution - Djorden Santos
Power in exchanges
Cardio and pressure path
Occasional submission path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 7/10 — Precision and range edge vs. volume and pressure risk
Confidence Level
Edge for Barlow in clean minute‑winning with live pressure volatility from Santos.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 79" reach and straighter entries at range
- • Higher accuracy and lower SApM profile
- • 100% takedown defense keeps fight standing
- • Big‑cage geometry benefits distance control
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Santos' volume and forward pressure
- • Weight move‑up dynamics for Barlow
- • Early pocket exchanges increase variance
- • Three‑round pace favors activity scoring
🏁Executive Summary
Barlow projects as the cleaner minute‑winner via precision, length, and TD denial in a large cage, with KO equity if he times entries. Santos remains live through pace and pocket pressure that can sway round optics. Overall lean 65–35 toward Barlow with decision and late‑finish routes most prominent.
Prediction: Barlow by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Santos round‑3 decision tilt if pressure holds.