Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Stephanie Luciano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Sam Hughes | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-10 | Talita Alencar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-19 | Talita Alencar | D | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-18 | Aline Oliveira | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 1:17) |
| 2022-01-30 | Andressa Romero | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Ravena Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-14 | Tainara Lisboa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-12 | Simone da Silva | W | TKO - Punch (R3, 4:16) |
| 2023-07-15 | Sara Raquel Braga de Andrade | W | TKO - Punch (R1, 0:27) |
| 2022-01-29 | Sheila Santos Amaral | W | Submission (R3, 1:38) |
| 2021-12-18 | Gabriele Santana | W | TKO (R1, 3:58) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Stephanie Luciano advantage: 12.5%Cardio Score
Stephanie Luciano advantage: 21.4%Overall Rating
Stephanie Luciano advantage: 17.2%📊 Technical Score
Calculated from Striking and Grappling composites. Balances offensive output, precision, defensive metrics, and wrestling control.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and sustained pace indicators.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores to present an at-a-glance capability rating.
Striking Composite
Stephanie Luciano advantage: 41.8%Grappling Composite
Ravena Oliveira advantage: 10.8%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large 30-foot Octagon, Luciano’s striking volume (5.36 SLpM) and defense (61%) allow her to dictate range and tempo, often landing 70+ significant strikes while limiting damage (3.38 SApM). Her reach (66.5") and jab-first approach exploit Oliveira’s lower striking defense (48%), pressing a distance fight unless clean entries are forced.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Luciano’s high-output, 41% accuracy striking plus elite 80% TDD set a minute‑winning baseline. Oliveira brings the grappling lever with a 2.00 TD/15 rate and a stronger grappling composite (72) that can flip rounds with chain-wrestling and top control. On the feet, Oliveira’s 48% accuracy enables counters if Luciano over-extends, but sustained volume still favors Luciano.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early distance management, Luciano’s first-layer TDD vs Oliveira’s level changes, and clinch entries off feints. If Oliveira secures takedowns (she landed 2 vs Lisboa), top time can stall volume and tilt optics. If Luciano keeps first contact clean, her pace and accuracy snowball at range.
🏁Final Prediction
Model lean: Luciano 65% vs Oliveira 35%. Luciano’s volume edge, defense, and 80% TDD project sustained minute‑winning in a big cage, while Oliveira’s path centers on chaining takedowns and holding position. If TDs don’t stick, Luciano outlands ~2:1 and banks rounds.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 67% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs Control – Market may undervalue Luciano's minute-winning output.
- • Takedown defense impact – 80% TDD reduces Oliveira's primary path.
- • Finish translation – Oliveira's regional finishes haven't translated in UFC sample.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luciano
Primary path via volume and control
Accumulation, standing riffs
Minimal submission threat historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Oliveira
Counter lanes and GNP if top
Control wins if TDs stick
Lower sub threat in UFC sample
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Oliveira
- • First 5 minutes: Highest TD success before reads.
- • Chain wrestle: Mix feints to force cage.
- • Counter entries: Time overextensions with straight shots.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Luciano
- • Minute winning: Jab, volume, exits after combos.
- • Pace control: Stuff early TDs (80% TDD) to sap chain wrestling.
- • Defense first: Maintain range; punish predictable shots.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 – Volume edge vs grappling paths
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Luciano in minute-winning; TD defense mitigates risk.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM (5.36 vs 1.00) with better StrDef (61%).
- • Strong TDD (80%) vs Oliveira's TDDef (62%).
- • UFC experience and consistent 15-min pacing.
- • Reach/height edges in a big cage.
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early TD chains from Oliveira can swing close rounds.
- • Low sample size for Oliveira at UFC level (variance).
- • Luciano hittable at times when extending combos.
🏁Executive Summary
Luciano brings superior volume and defense with sturdy takedown prevention, while Oliveira offers grappling-driven paths and regional finishing pedigree. Over three rounds in the 30-foot Octagon, sustained output and range control tilt the probabilities toward Luciano.
Prediction: Luciano by Decision most likely, with KO/TKO as secondary. Live hedge: Oliveira decision if early TDs stick.