Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kevin Holland
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Daniel Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Vicente Luque | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R2, 1:03) |
| 2025-03-22 | Gunnar Nelson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Reinier de Ridder | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-10-05 | Roman Dolidze | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mike Malott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Charles Radtke | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:26) |
| 2024-11-02 | Trevin Giles | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Neil Magny | L | KO/TKO - Ground and Pound (R3, 4:45) |
| 2023-06-10 | Adam Fugitt | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:06) |
| 2023-02-25 | Yohan Lainesse | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 4:15) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Kevin Holland advantage: 2.6%Cardio Score
Kevin Holland advantage: 10.8%Overall Rating
Kevin Holland advantage: 6.7%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Kevin Holland advantage: 5.3%Grappling Composite
Mike Malott advantage: 3.9%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Holland's 8" reach advantage amplifies his ability to win minutes at range, while Malott must close distance aggressively to press grappling exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Holland carries the sustained‑output edge with solid accuracy and dependable takedown defense. Malott brings superior offensive wrestling and a higher submission threat but with weaker TD defense.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Lead‑hand control, Holland's jab‑kick entries, and Malott's clinch chains will decide critical moments. Holland can bank rounds at distance; Malott must create grappling sequences.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Holland; moments favor Malott. Over three rounds, range, volume, and cardio edge tilt the contest to Holland unless Malott finds early takedown chains or a submission.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Holland
Primary path via range and volume
Clean entries create finishing chances
Opportunistic submissions
💥Outcome Distribution - Malott
Well-timed counters and pressure
Lower minute‑winning profile overall
Primary path via grappling chains
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Malott
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finish equity before Holland's reads settle.
- • Chain wrestling: Mix single/double attempts to force scrambles.
- • Back takes: Hunt RNC when Holland posts to stand.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Holland
- • Minute winning: Jab, inside low‑kicks, and check hooks rack up points.
- • Pace control: If clinched, frame and circle; deny mat time.
- • Defense first: Exit the pocket after combinations to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 for a 3-round matchup - Range edge with live submission danger from Malott
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Holland in round‑winning with early finish risk from Malott.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 8" reach advantage and higher SLpM
- • Reliable takedown defense vs. 3-round grappling approach
- • Better minute‑winning profile in big cage
- • UFC experience gap (27 vs 6)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Malott's submission chains if he establishes top control
- • Early KO volatility at welterweight
- • Holland's occasional defensive lapses in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Holland owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile and reach edge, while Malott carries genuine early submission danger. Over three rounds in a big cage, the model leans 65–35 toward Holland with decision and KO as primary routes.
Prediction: Holland by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Malott SUB R1/R2.