Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Marlon Vera
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-03 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Pedro Munhoz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Cory Sandhagen | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-13 | Dominick Cruz | W | KO (Kick) (R4, 2:17) |
Last 5 Fights - Aiemann Zahabi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Jose Aldo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Pedro Munhoz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Javid Basharat | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Aoriqileng | W | KO/TKO (Punch) (R1, 1:04) |
| 2022-07-09 | Ricky Turcios | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Blends output, accuracy, defense, and takedown/submission metrics.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and pacing balance across three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores for a holistic view of skill and sustainability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Big cage favors Zahabi's movement and counters early, while Vera uses kicks and clinch entries to bank minutes as the fight extends.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Zahabi owns the defensive striking edge (70% StrDef, low SApM) while Vera brings higher grappling pressure (TDs, submissions) and broader win paths.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Leg-kicks vs counters, takedown entries vs 84% TDD, and round-3 cardio. Vera thrives late; Zahabi excels at clean, low-damage minutes.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes vs moments: Vera's cardio and grappling edge lean a 3-round nod, while Zahabi's counter power and defense keep KO paths live.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 16% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Defense vs Pressure – Zahabi's elite defense may be undervalued against Vera's volume and grappling threats.
- • Round 3 cardio – Late-round tilt toward Vera not fully priced in a 3-round fight.
- • KO volatility – Zahabi's counter lanes increase variance early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marlon Vera
Minute-winning with clinch and control
Step-in counters and attritional damage
Front-headlock chains and RNCs
💥Outcome Distribution - Aiemann Zahabi
Counter lanes on entries
Low-damage round banking
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 – Broader paths for Vera; Zahabi defense adds variance
Confidence Level
Grappling and cardio edge vs elite defense
✅Supporting Factors
- • Vera: 24 UFC fights, higher submission rate
- • Zahabi: 70% StrDef keeps damage low
- • Vera: 73% TDD and 39% TDAcc mix well for control
- • Zahabi: 6-fight streak with clean decision wins
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Zahabi early counter KO lanes
- • Vera hittable (5.37 SApM) when pressuring
- • 3-round variance favors minute-winners
- • Name judging dynamics in close rounds
🏁Executive Summary
Vera holds broader winning routes through grappling pressure and late-round cardio, while Zahabi's elite defensive striking creates live counter threats and decision equity in a big cage.
Prediction: Vera by Decision or Submission. Live hedge: Zahabi KO R1.