Reinier de Ridder vs Anthony Hernandez
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Vancouver
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Reinier de Ridder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Robert Whittaker | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-03 | Bo Nickal | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:53) |
| 2025-01-18 | Kevin Holland | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-11-09 | Gerald Meerschaert | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R3, 1:44) |
| 2024-07-27 | Magomed Muradov | W | TKO (knee and punches) (R3, 2:10) |
Last 5 Fights - Anthony Hernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Roman Dolidze | W | Submission (R4, 3:16) |
| 2025-02-22 | Brendan Allen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Michel Pereira | W | TKO (elbows on ground) (R5, 2:22) |
| 2024-02-17 | Roman Kopylov | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:23) |
| 2023-05-20 | Edmen Shahbazyan | W | TKO (elbows from mount) (R3, 1:01) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Anthony Hernandez advantage: 12.9%Cardio Score
Anthony Hernandez advantage: 14.7%Overall Rating
Anthony Hernandez advantage: 13.8%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite derived from UFC rate metrics. Reflects overall technical capability in striking and grappling phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, output rates, and finish profile to approximate endurance and pace maintenance across rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score to provide a holistic snapshot of performance level.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Larger octagon favors range management. de Ridder's height and reach support outside striking and clinch entries, while Hernandez's pressure style closes distance to force exchanges and wrestling sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Hernandez owns the volume and accuracy edges (SLpM 4.5 vs 3.25; StrAcc 64% vs 61%) with greater takedown volume and conversion. de Ridder carries knockout/submission upside with strong finishing profile.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Distance closing vs frame leverage; clinch control at the fence; ground exchanges where Hernandez's pace and ground strikes contrast with de Ridder's submission setups and top control.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Hernandez; de Ridder's finishing equity remains live. Over five rounds, Hernandez's pace and wrestling advantage project a decision or late stoppage unless de Ridder lands early or locks a submission during scrambles.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Pace vs Power – Market may underrate Hernandez's minute-winning pace vs de Ridder's finish equity.
- • Cardio durability – Five-round projection leans Hernandez; late rounds not fully priced.
- • Submission volatility – de Ridder's early submission threat introduces variance in pricing.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Anthony Hernandez
Minute-winning via pressure and control
Accumulated damage and ground-and-pound
Submission routes from sustained control
💥Outcome Distribution - Reinier de Ridder
Counter or opportunistic moments
Lower minute-winning profile overall
Primary finishing method historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Reinier de Ridder
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest finish equity before pressure builds.
- • Clinch wraps: Front‑headlock and back‑takes off shots.
- • Long entries: Use jab and kicks to set reactive shots.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Anthony Hernandez
- • Minute winning: Jab, low‑kicks, level‑changes rack up control.
- • Pace control: Mix clinch and ground to sap explosiveness.
- • Defensive awareness: Avoid extended front‑headlock sequences.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 for a 5-round matchup
Confidence Level
Clear minute-winning edge with live finish danger both ways.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with similar or better accuracy
- • Superior takedown volume and conversion
- • Proven late-round resilience and pressure game
- • Versatile finishing routes (KO/TKO/Sub)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • de Ridder's early submission/KO threat
- • Potential scramble reversals off takedowns
- • Cardio tax if pace mismanaged early
- • Middleweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Hernandez holds the sustainable minute-winning profile and grappling pace, while de Ridder brings potent finishing danger. Over five rounds, the projection leans 70–30 toward Hernandez.
Prediction: Hernandez by Decision or late KO/TKO. Live hedge: de Ridder SUB R1–R2.