Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Punahele Soriano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Uros Medic | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 0:31) |
| 2024-06-08 | Miguel Baeza | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Dustin Stoltzfus | L | Submission - RNC (R2, 4:10) |
| 2023-01-14 | Roman Kopylov | L | KO/TKO - Body Kick (R2, 3:19) |
| 2022-07-16 | Dalcha Lungiambula | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:28) |
Last 5 Fights - Nikolay Veretennikov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Francisco Prado | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Austin Vanderford | L | KO/TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 4:13) |
| 2024-08-10 | Danny Barlow | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ashley Reece | W | KO/TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:45) |
| 2021-09-21 | Michael Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and the ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates the complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Punahele Soriano Key Advantages
Higher output and real one-shot power; creates damaging moments and sets round optics early.
Level-change threat disrupts rhythm and can steal close frames in a 3-round fight.
0:31 KO of Medic and a clean decision over Baeza support improved pacing and process at 170.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low-event distance striking could suppress his power leverage and give away close minutes.
Consistent calf/inside-low kicks can blunt entries and drag tempo toward Nikolay's game.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab-feint to left hand, rip body to slow footwork; mix doubles off overhands to keep reads honest.
Sprinkle takedowns late in rounds to bank optics when pace drops.
🚀 Nikolay Veretennikov Key Advantages
Selective, accurate outside boxing and kicks; wins long-range exchanges when pace is controlled.
Extra height and reach help maintain outside lanes and discourage blitz entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Near-zero TD offense; if taken down, has shown vulnerability under strong topside pressure.
Soriano's early power surges are the most dangerous phase; damage optics can decide rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep the fight long, punish entries with straight shots and calf kicks, avoid fence lines.
Deny level changes, force resets, and keep the pace selective where accuracy shines.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏁Round Optics & Initiative
Soriano's tempo (+2.0 SLpM) and power create decisive optics that often decide 10-9s at this weight. Nikolay's accuracy plays better in low-event stretches, but sustained outside fencing is difficult to maintain for 15 full minutes when entries are forced.
🤼Wrestling as a Lever
With 1.47 TD/15 at 56% acc, Soriano's level changes aren't volume-heavy but are timely. They break rhythm, bank optics, and offer a round-steal path that Nikolay's profile doesn't mirror.
📐Cage Geography
Big cage footwork helps Nikolay minimize danger; however, pressure chains and body work tend to erode that space over time in 3-round pacing. Net effect still tilts toward Soriano's initiative.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Fair ≈ +127
GOOD VALUE
Model: 19% | Fair ≈ +426
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Fair ≈ -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices Soriano's moment-winning power in early exchanges
- • Overweights long-range minutes relative to likely fence/entry dynamics
- • Minimal respect for TD kicker as a round-steal lever in close frames
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Aligned edges (pace, power, wrestling lever)
✅Supporting Factors
- • Soriano's pace and moment-winning power
- • Offensive wrestling kicker not mirrored by Nikolay
- • Recent WW form and process improvements
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Extended low-event outside fight favors Nikolay optics
- • Calf/inside-low kick disruptions on entries
- • Variance of 170-lb power dynamics in early exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Stylistically, this is pace and power with a credible wrestling lever (Soriano) versus selective outside accuracy and size (Veretennikov). Across metrics and tape, the 70/30 split reflects multiple aligned edges for Soriano with valid survival/decision pathways for Nikolay in low-event scenarios.
Prediction: Soriano by KO/TKO or a pressure-led Decision; Nikolay's clearest path is a controlled outside Decision if he consistently neutralizes entries and keeps the fight centered.