Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Performance Overview
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Overview
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tom Nolan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Alex Reyes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Victor Martinez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:50) |
| 2024-01-13 | Nikolas Motta | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:03) |
| 2023-08-08 | Bogdan Grad | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:23) |
Last 5 Fights - Charlie Campbell
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Trevor Peek | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Alex Reyes | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head (R1, 3:38) |
| 2022-08-02 | Chris Duncan | L | KO/TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:43) |
| 2022-04-15 | Guilherme dos Santos | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:30) |
| 2021-10-19 | Nainoa Dung | W | TKO - Leg Kicks (R2, 1:42) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite for each fighter.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, pace (SLpM), takedown volume, and finishing profile. Higher suggests better endurance.
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of Technical and Cardio scores; provides a holistic snapshot of current form.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and StrAbs/Min. Balances output, precision, and defensive responsibility.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Combines TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15 to summarize overall wrestling and submission profile.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Tom Nolan Key Advantages
Long left straight, teeps and knees play well in space; big cage favors distance work and resets.
Volume at range with opportunistic knees/counters can bank minutes when entries are stalled.
Front-headlocks and back-takes off rushed shots; can punish over-pursuit on level changes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Campbell's 2.95 TD/15 at 40% with clinch cycling can blunt kicks and steal minutes.
Lower StrDef (~47%) and exits get tagged by Campbell's accurate right hand.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Southpaw long-guard, calf kicks and teeps; stuff first shots and counter knees up the middle.
🚀 Charlie Campbell Key Advantages
Cleaner mechanics and defense over 15 minutes win round minutes reliably.
Mixes level changes to control geography; insurance when range kickboxing stalls.
Dictates where exchanges happen; reduces Nolan's scramble-based sub looks.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Over-chasing long southpaw tools invites counters and knees through center line.
Running into southpaw counters or front-headlocks during level changes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab feints draw counters, step in behind right to body, clinch cycles and mat returns to bank control.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Efficiency vs Range Dynamics
Campbell's superior striking efficiency (54% accuracy, ~55% defense) and reliable wrestling lever (2.95 TD/15 at 40%) create consistent round-winning tools over 15 minutes. Nolan's best paths are distance management and intercept counters leveraging his 6'3" southpaw frame in the big cage.
🎯Key Battlegrounds
The decisive exchanges occur along the fence and in clinch cycles where Campbell can mute kicks and bank control time, versus open space where Nolan can maintain range, pick with long tools, and punish over-pursuit with knees and counters.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Nolan's win conditions: early intercept KO/TKO or clean range striking to decision. Campbell's win conditions: club-and-takedown GNP or accumulative boxing with mixed level changes to a decision. Overall model leans Campbell 63–37 on minute-winning and control leverage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market comparison (BetOnline odds preferred) and model fair prices
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 31%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 29%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Detailed outcome modeling based on fighter analytics
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tom Nolan
Range management path
Intercept counters/step knees
Front-headlock scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Charlie Campbell
Club-and-takedown or boxing accumulative
Minute-winning with control and defense
Low baseline; opportunistic only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Charlie Campbell
- • First 5–7 minutes: Best chance to land meaningful boxing sequences
- • Fence cycles: Level-change threats drain Nolan's long-tools game
- • Body work: Slow footwork to limit exits in big cage
🎯Range Leverage - Tom Nolan
- • Open space: Teeps, long lefts, and knees intercept entries
- • Sprawl-and-brawl: Keep it standing; punish overpursuit with counters
- • Discipline: Avoid pocket trades where defense lags
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
Multiple independent edges; sample-size and big-cage variance reduce certainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Campbell's superior accuracy/defense profile
- • Wrestling lever (2.95 TD/15 @ 40%) to bank control
- • Better Overall and Cardio composites
- • Nolan's lower StrDef and hittable exits
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Small UFC sample for Campbell (2 fights)
- • Big cage improves Nolan's distance tools
- • Nolan's intercept power early
- • Variance in 3-round pace dynamics
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup tilts toward Charlie Campbell on efficiency: cleaner striking (54% acc, ~55% def) and a reliable wrestling lever (2.95 TD/15 @ 40%) to control geography. Those edges add up across 15 minutes in the big cage.
Tom Nolan has clear routes—range kickboxing, intercept knees, and opportunistic front-headlocks—but his lower defensive metrics (~47% StrDef, ~5.0 SApM) raise volatility in pocket exchanges and fence sequences.
Prediction: Charlie Campbell by Decision or KO/TKO (63% combined). If Tom Nolan maintains distance and stuffs early chains, his decision path remains live; otherwise Campbell's pressure and accuracy should carry rounds.