Louie Sutherland vs Justin Tafa
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Louie Sutherland
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Dylan Newland | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:45) |
| 2025-04-01 | Pedro Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-16 | Luis Carlos de Brito | W | KO - Punch (R1, 1:30) |
| 2024-12-01 | Lucas Rangel | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-17 | Slim Trabelsi | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Justin Tafa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Tallison Teixeira | L | KO - Elbow to Head (R1, 0:35) |
| 2024-03-23 | Karl Williams | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-09 | Austen Lane | W | KO - Punch to Head (R1, 1:22) |
| 2023-06-24 | Austen Lane | NC | Could Not Continue - Eye Injury (R1, 0:29) |
| 2023-02-11 | Parker Porter | W | KO - Punch to Head (R1, 1:06) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Louie Sutherland advantage: 59.4%Cardio Score
Louie Sutherland advantage: 44.4%Overall Rating
Louie Sutherland advantage: 50.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 51) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 13).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score to provide a holistic view of fighter capabilities.
Striking Composite
Louie Sutherland advantage: 21.6%Grappling Composite
Louie Sutherland advantage: 207.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the 30-foot cage, Sutherland's height and 2" reach advantage support a jab-and-straight game that limits pocket time where Tafa is most dangerous.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Tafa brings verified UFC power and accuracy (SLpM 4.05, StrAcc 54%), but defensive gaps (StrDef 47%, 5.11 SApM) leave counter lanes for Sutherland's straight right.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Managing pocket entries, leg-kick exchanges, and early left-hand traps defines momentum. If Sutherland survives the first 7–8 minutes, he trends ahead.
🏁Final Prediction
Sutherland by KO/TKO most often, with decision equity if he controls range throughout. Tafa's early left remains a live equalizer.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 67% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Defensive gaps for Tafa (StrDef 47%, SApM 5.11) vs straight rights at range.
- • Big-cage dynamics support Sutherland's jab/kick game over pocket trades.
- • Market may overrate early KO volatility relative to sustained minute-winning.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Sutherland
Range control and pace
Clean entries vs defensive gaps
Minimal submission threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Tafa
Early-left volatility
Lower minute-winning profile
Minimal submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tafa
- • First 5 minutes: peak KO equity.
- • Left hand over Sutherland's jab; body then up top.
- • Trap along fence to force pocket trades.
🎯Progressive Edge - Sutherland
- • Jab, calf kicks, and straight rights at range.
- • Pivot away from left hand; avoid planted trades.
- • Bank minutes if chaos settles.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 6.5/10 - Range tools vs early southpaw danger
Confidence Level
Slight favorite: distance management and durability trends
✅Supporting Factors
- • Height and reach advantages in big cage
- • Recent W4 with two R1 KOs
- • Defensive gaps on Tafa's side (StrDef 47%)
- • No grappling tax from Tafa (TD15 0.0)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut volatility for Sutherland
- • Tafa's genuine one-shot KO power
- • Heavyweight variance in pocket exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
In a striker vs striker matchup with no real wrestling layer, the large cage and reach edge give Sutherland minute-winning tools while Tafa remains live early.
Prediction: Sutherland by KO/TKO or Decision; hedge consideration: Tafa KO R1.