Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jonathan Micallef
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Kevin Jousset | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-15 | Mohamed Ado | W | Technical Submission - Triangle Choke (R1, 3:01) |
| 2024-09-07 | Matt Vaile | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, N/A) |
| 2024-03-02 | Aldin Bates | L | TKO - Punches (R4, 3:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Joseph Luciano | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Oban Elliott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Seok Hyeon Ko | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Bassil Hafez | W | KO/TKO (R3, 0:40) |
| 2024-07-27 | Preston Parsons | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Valentine Woodburn | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-22 | Kaik Brito | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (55.5 vs 58.4) and Grappling Composite (37.0 vs 32.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jonathan Micallef Key Advantages
Long one-twos and body work from range; heavier knockdown rate enables momentum swings.
97% of sig. strikes come standing; excels in the 30-ft cage with space to set the jab.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Elliott attempts more takedowns (1.7 TD/15) and builds top control where Micallef’s TDD (50%) can be tested.
Higher SApM (4.00) leaves counters open if he over-commits pressuring into the pocket.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab the body to lower Elliott’s hands; punish entries with the straight right and circle off.
🚀 Oban Elliott Key Advantages
Superior strike avoidance and lower damage intake over three rounds.
Layered level-change threats to bank minutes and control location.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Micallef’s power and reach at center can flip rounds before wrestling layers establish.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab feints and calf kicks to stall stance, then double-legs finished on the fence to bank control.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30‑ft cage in Perth favors range striking and footwork. Micallef benefits at center with a five‑inch reach edge, while Elliott’s round‑winning toolkit relies on closing distance to mix jabs, calf kicks, and timely level changes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Elliott’s defensive profile (60% StrDef, 2.24 SApM) and 1.7 TD/15 underpin control over minutes 9–15, while Micallef’s 4.77 SLpM and knockdown threat give him the higher early‑moment swing. Grappling composites are close, but Elliott’s volume in attempts shifts optics on the cards.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early exchanges at range favor Micallef; long stretches and fence wrestling favor Elliott. If Elliott earns two clean finishes of the takedown cycle per round, he likely banks 10‑9s; if Micallef wins the jabs and punishes entries, the fight swings his way.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Micallef’s clearest route is a striking‑led decision or early KO. Elliott’s most common path is a decision via control and defense, with late attritional finish equity if the pace compounds.
🏁Final Prediction
Slight lean to Elliott (60–40) on the strength of defense, cardio, and takedown volume. Micallef’s power and reach keep the upset live—especially early—but over three rounds Elliott’s round‑winning consistency is the deciding factor more often.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: — | Market: —
GOOD VALUE
Model: — | Market: —
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: — | Market: —
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jonathan Micallef
Single‑moment power at range
Distance control and counters
Opportunistic if takedowns are sloppy
💥Outcome Distribution - Oban Elliott
Minute‑winning via cardio and control
Attritional and late‑round scenarios
Opportunistic choke on scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jonathan Micallef
- • First 5 minutes: Best chance to land clean counters
- • Sprawl + circle: Deny fence control and resets
- • Body work: Slow re‑shots with jabs/kicks
🎯Progressive Dominance - Oban Elliott
- • Rounds 2–3: Cardio edge compounds
- • On top: Half‑guard rides to score safely
- • Defensive optics: Keep damage low
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elliott’s defensive metrics (60% StrDef, 2.24 SApM)
- • Higher takedown volume (1.7 TD/15)
- • Cardio edge visible in late minutes
- • Proven minute‑winning decisions
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Micallef’s reach and knockdown threat
- • Low Elliott finishing danger early
- • Small sample on Micallef at UFC level
- • Variance of 3‑round pacing
🏁Executive Summary
Elliott’s round‑winning profile (defense, cardio, takedown volume) carries the edge across common scripts. The large cage softens clinch volatility but enhances range exchanges where Micallef’s reach and power keep upset equity live.
Prediction: Elliott decision most common; Micallef early KO live. Priced ~60/40 overall.