Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tom Nolan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Alex Reyes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Victor Martinez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:50) |
| 2024-01-13 | Nikolas Motta | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:03) |
| 2023-08-08 | Bogdan Grad | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:23) |
Last 5 Fights - Evan Elder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Gauge Young | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Darrius Flowers | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R2, 1:46) |
| 2023-07-15 | Genaro Valdez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Nazim Sadykhov | L | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R3, 0:38) |
| 2022-04-23 | Preston Parsons | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Evan Elder advantage: 12.8%Cardio Score
Evan Elder advantage: 9.3%Overall Rating
Evan Elder advantage: 11.0%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54.4 vs 57.2) and Grappling Composite (44.0 vs 29.8). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Evan Elder advantage: 5.1%Grappling Composite
Tom Nolan advantage: 47.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Elder’s cleaner defense (57.4%) and accuracy (50.9%) support round-winning exchanges in open space, while Nolan’s height and length provide first contact but require sustained setups to trap.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Standup favors Elder through accuracy and defense edges; grappling danger leans Nolan via 1.59 Sub/15 and superior TDDef (66.7%) against Elder’s 40%.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Cleanliness of exchanges, scramble insurance, and jab/low-kick equity will steer rounds. Elder must deny clinch ties; Nolan should manufacture scrambles to activate submission equity.
🏁Final Prediction
Projection leans Elder by decision in a 3‑round fight if exchanges remain clean. Nolan’s live paths are early power or opportunistic submissions during scrambles.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 36% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 12% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Elder
Primary path via accuracy and defense
Counter lanes in clean exchanges
Occasional choke opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Nolan
Power at range creates danger
Volume and length when clean
Opportunistic grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Nolan
- • Early power lanes at range
- • Force clinch scrambles to activate submissions
- • Maintain length and combination bursts
🎯Progressive Dominance - Elder
- • Jab/low‑kick to bank minutes
- • Deny ties and break grips at fence
- • Counter over-extensions with straights
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 7/10 — Elder minute-winning edge with Nolan submission/KO volatility
Confidence Level
Large cage favors Elder’s clean exchanges; Nolan remains live with subs/power.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elder accuracy 50.9% and defense 57.4%
- • Nolan Sub/15 1.59 with 66.7% TDDef
- • Both low TD volume keeps fight standing
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Elder TDDef 40% can be tested in scrambles
- • Nolan hittable (46.3% StrDef) in clean exchanges
- • Lightweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Elder possesses the cleaner striking efficiency and defensive soundness to win rounds consistently, while Nolan carries genuine submission threat and early power danger. In a three-round fight in a large cage, the model leans 64–36 toward Elder, with decision and late-round dominance as primary routes, while Nolan's grappling upside remains live if he can force scrambles.
Prediction: Elder by Decision or late KO/TKO. Live hedge: Nolan by Submission.