Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jake Matthews
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Chidi Njokuani | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:09) |
| 2025-02-08 | Francisco Prado | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Philip Rowe | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Michael Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Darrius Flowers | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:37) |
Last 5 Fights - Neil Magny
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:39) |
| 2024-11-09 | Carlos Prates | L | KO - Punch (R1, 4:50) |
| 2024-08-24 | Michael Morales | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:39) |
| 2024-01-20 | Mike Malott | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:45) |
| 2023-08-19 | Ian Garry | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Balances offensive output, accuracy, and defensive efficiency with ground control and submission threat.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, pace (SLpM + TDs/15), and finish dynamics. Captures ability to sustain effort and win minutes through all rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores. Represents a holistic view of fight-readiness and minute-winning potential.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jake Matthews Key Advantages
Superior striking defense (61% vs 52%) and higher TDD (68% vs 54%) reduce Magny’s minute-winning tools.
0.55 subs/15 vs 0.25—opportunistic topside submissions can flip tight rounds.
Compact counters off level-change feints can create the round’s biggest moments.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
7" reach deficit demands layered entries; stranded at range, volume favors Magny.
Magny’s re-clinch, wrist rides, and trips can bleed clock and blunt momentum.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Double up the jab to level changes; finish on the fence to bank control segments.
Prioritize one clear damage moment each round to win optics against Magny’s volume.
🚀 Neil Magny Key Advantages
80" reach and 6'3" frame keep first-touch rights in a large cage; jab/teeps set the terms.
Consistent clinch cycling and longer average durations tilt 3-round optics to Magny.
Inside trips, wrist rides, and re-clinches bleed time and frustrate entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
54% TDD can be exploited by well-timed doubles at the fence, conceding top time.
Recent early finishes against him highlight vulnerabilities vs sharp counter punchers.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Control range with jab/teeps; clinch on entries, break, and re-clinch to manage clock.
Bank cage minutes late; avoid extended scrambles that elevate submission risk.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📐Range and Control
Magny’s 7" reach advantage in a large cage supports jab-first engagements and cage pinning cycles that reduce pocket time and force Matthews to layer entries. Matthews’ superior defense and TDD keep this competitive and increase damage-moment equity each round.
🤼♂️Wrestling & Submission Dynamics
Matthews’ higher TDD (68%) and submission rate (0.55/15) create credible round-stealing paths against Magny’s 54% TDD. However, Magny’s clinch re-entries can cap extended top time and drag rounds into his pace.
🕒Round-to-Round Outlook
Expect Magny to win more minutes across three, while Matthews holds the bigger moments. Judges’ optics often favor minute-winning unless the damage moments are decisive—key swing factor in Perth.
🏁Final Prediction
Slight lean to Neil Magny (58-42) by decision in a large-cage, range-managed fight. Matthews remains live for damage moments and opportunistic subs, especially off level changes near the fence.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 66% (3-round, large cage)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 4% pathway; high price compensates
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Range bias can overstate finish likelihood; model favors decision tilt.
- • Magny’s TDD leak priced inconsistently vs Matthews’ chain-wrestling window.
- • Damage vs volume optics drive variance—props around decisions more stable.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Matthews
Live guillotine/topside chains
Damage moments + defense
Compact counters in pocket
💥Outcome Distribution - Magny
Accumulation + clinch knees
Range + clinch control minutes
Lower submission rate historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Magny
- • First 7 minutes: Best range control and jab efficiency
- • Clinch cycling: Accumulate control time on fence
- • Touch-go volume: Bank rounds with activity
🎯Progressive Threat - Matthews
- • Late R2–R3: Damage moments flip optics if entries land clean
- • Chain wrestling: Fence finishes create control segments
- • Submission threat: Opportunistic topside sequences
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple small edges for Magny vs higher damage equity for Matthews
✅Supporting Factors
- • Magny’s 7" reach and clinch cycling for minute wins
- • Matthews’ superior defense (61% StrDef) and TDD (68%)
- • Large cage favors range-first engagements
- • Model favors decision-heavy distribution
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Matthews’ damage moments can flip close rounds
- • Magny’s TDD leak increases control segments against fence
- • Judge optics on damage vs volume create variance
- • Veteran experience vs athletic prime dynamics
🏁Executive Summary
A range-managed welterweight chess match. Magny’s reach, pace, and clinch cycling support round-winning tendencies, while Matthews’ defense, counter power, and submission threat sustain high-leverage moments. The model leans 58-42 toward Magny by decision, with live Matthews moments across entries and fence exchanges.
Prediction: Neil Magny by Decision. Close rounds decided by range control and clinch time; Matthews remains dangerous on counter entries and opportunistic grappling sequences.