Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan
UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jimmy Crute
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Marcin Prachnio | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 4:59) |
| 2025-02-08 | Rodolfo Bellato | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Alonzo Menifield | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:55) |
| 2023-02-11 | Alonzo Menifield | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-04 | Jamahal Hill | L | KO - Punch to Head (R1, 0:48) |
Last 5 Fights - Ivan Erslan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Navajo Stirling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Ion Cutelaba | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Bogdan Gnidko | W | KO - Punch (R1, 0:54) |
| 2023-10-14 | Rafal Haratyk | L | KO - Punches (R1, 4:26) |
| 2023-05-28 | Dirlei Broenstrup | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Jimmy Crute advantage: 88.6%Cardio Score
Ivan Erslan advantage: 58.2%Overall Rating
Jimmy Crute advantage: 5.2%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.9 vs 40.9) and Grappling Composite (63.8 vs 20.4). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish tendency. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace through 3 rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score to provide a holistic capability view.
Striking Composite
Jimmy Crute advantage: 26.9%Grappling Composite
Jimmy Crute advantage: 212.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Championship Dynamics
Three-round bout in a large cage. Crute's 4.20 TD/15 and 52% TD accuracy suggest he can dictate where the fight happens; Erslan must sprawl-and-brawl to extend defensive minutes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Crute owns clear edges in output (4.17 vs 2.50 SLpM), accuracy (52% vs 44%), and offensive grappling volume, plus a real submission threat (1.9 Sub/15). Erslan's better raw StrDef% (55%) is offset by a high 5.17 SApM.
⚡Key Battle Areas
First 7–10 minutes favor Crute's takedown chains and top pressure. Erslan's path requires stuffing first layers and creating resets in open space to chase a decision.
🏁Final Prediction
Projection leans Jimmy Crute by submission or decision; Ivan Erslan needs a clean, low‑wrestle kickboxing affair to flip the minutes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalued wrestling volume: Crute's 4.20 TD/15 often not fully priced.
- • Erslan defense optics: 55% StrDef looks good but 5.17 SApM tells a different story.
- • Submission threat: Crute's 1.9 Sub/15 creates live finishing equity that markets may discount.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jimmy Crute
Primary minute-winning path
Ground-and-pound or standing entries
Armbar/kimura chains live
💥Outcome Distribution - Ivan Erslan
One-shot power at range
Low-variance control of distance
Minimal historical sub threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ivan Erslan
- • First 5 minutes: Clean counters before takedown reads settle.
- • Stay off fence: Frames/overhooks to circle out.
- • Keep it long: Low-shot fight favors his decision equity.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jimmy Crute
- • Chain-wrestle: Singles to fence, mat returns.
- • Submission sequences: Arm isolations when Erslan posts.
- • Risk management: Strike-to-shot transitions to mute counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 7/10 — Multi-path edge (TDs + subs) vs decision-oriented opponent
Confidence Level
Stat-backed advantages across output and grappling.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 4.20 TD/15 with 52% accuracy
- • 1.9 Sub/15 active finishing game
- • Output and accuracy edges on feet
- • Fresh R1 submission momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Crute striking defense (42%) can leak counters
- • Erslan decision path in a big cage
- • Light heavyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Jimmy Crute holds multiple hard-edged statistical advantages (volume, accuracy, takedown rate/efficiency, submission threat). Ivan Erslan must generate long, clean stand-up minutes to reach a decision, but his high SApM and limited bottom offense are problematic if forced to grapple.
Prediction: Jimmy Crute by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Ivan Erslan Decision if early takedowns are stuffed.