Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jamie Mullarkey
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Mauricio Ruffy | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:42) |
| 2023-12-09 | Nasrat Haqparast | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:44) |
| 2023-09-09 | John Makdessi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-03 | Muhammadjon Naimov | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:59) |
| 2023-02-11 | Francisco Prado | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rolando Bedoya
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-03 | Jai Herbert | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Song Kenan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-06 | Khaos Williams | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-10 | Pablo Dhorta | W | Submission - Brabo Choke (R2, 3:26) |
| 2021-07-17 | Mauricio Otalora | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 2:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jamie Mullarkey Key Advantages
Clear offensive wrestling edge versus Bedoya's 33% TDD and 0.00 TD offense.
Better defensive profile (TDD 79%, StrDef 54%) diminishes Bedoya’s volume advantage.
Proven KO/TKO wins; counter opportunities vs Bedoya’s 6.38 SApM.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bedoya’s 7.29 SLpM and accuracy can steal rounds if the fight stays open-mat.
Recent TKO losses highlight volatility in early exchanges if he forgoes wrestling.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain wrestling to fence, top control and ground-and-pound to bank minutes.
Avoid long exchanges early; prioritize control over brawls.
🚀 Rolando Bedoya Key Advantages
Volume and accuracy can pressure scorecards when kept at distance.
Longer legs aid calf kicks and knees to manage distance in open space.
Has gone the distance in all UFC bouts; can sustain output for three rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
33% TDD vs 2.31 TD/15 presents a difficult defensive matchup along the fence.
Limited get-ups can lead to long control stretches and lost rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Control center, sprawl-and-brawl, pick with combinations and low kicks.
Immediate circles and frames to avoid prolonged clinch or mat exchanges.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Experience and Control
Mullarkey brings a broader UFC résumé (11 bouts) and a clear wrestling/control route to manage fight geography. Bedoya’s output is dangerous in space, but his 33% takedown defense remains a pivotal liability against a willing wrestler.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Statistical contrasts define the matchup: Mullarkey owns the grappling composite edge (51.0 vs 10.3) while Bedoya leads in striking composite (66.0 vs 56.5). The swing factor is whether Mullarkey’s takedown entries (2.31/15 at 34% accuracy) consistently beat Bedoya’s defense at the fence.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early minutes favor Bedoya’s volume if kept at range; prolonged clinch/wrestling sequences flip the advantage to Mullarkey. Leg-kick lanes exist for Bedoya, but mat returns and top time are the best scoring path for Mullarkey.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Mullarkey’s most common win is by decision through control and damage from top; KO/TKO emerges when counters catch entries from Bedoya. Bedoya’s path is a disciplined, high-output kickboxing effort with clean resets and leg work.
🏁Final Prediction
Slight but consistent lean to Mullarkey (62-38) based on the wrestling vs TDD gap and UFC experience. Bedoya’s volume keeps the standup competitive, but control time is likely to decide rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Additional Markets
🤖Analytical Model
Model Totals
💎Value Opportunities
MODEL PICK
Model probability 36% (fair +178)
SECONDARY
Model: 66%
LEVERAGED
Model: 62%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mullarkey
Primary path via control and defense
Counter shots or attritional GNP
Occasional opportunistic subs
💥Outcome Distribution - Bedoya
High output, range control
Less common but live if clean entries
Low submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic lever but some standup volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • Wrestling vs 33% TDD mismatch
- • Superior defensive metrics (TDD 79%, StrDef 54%)
- • UFC experience edge (11 vs 3 fights)
- • Bedoya tends to go distance; control time banks rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Recent TKO losses for Mullarkey (early-round volatility)
- • Bedoya’s volume can sway optics if wrestling stalls
- • Big-cage movement favors distance striking
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup pits Bedoya’s high-volume kickboxing against Mullarkey’s wrestling and control game. Data indicates Mullarkey can dictate location often enough to win minutes, while Bedoya’s path requires consistent range management and clean output.
Prediction: Mullarkey by Decision most often, with KO/TKO live in scrambles. Bedoya’s upset path is a disciplined distance fight landing at 2:1 ratios.