Junior Tafa vs Ibo Aslan
UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Measured Striker
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Finisher Profile
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Junior Tafa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Tuco Tokkos | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 4:25) |
| 2024-10-12 | Sean Sharaf | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:15) |
| 2024-08-17 | Valter Walker | L | Technical Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 4:56) |
| 2024-02-17 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | L | TKO - Leg Kick and Punches (R2, 1:14) |
| 2023-08-26 | Parker Porter | W | KO - Punch (R1, 1:24) |
Last 5 Fights - Ibo Aslan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Billy Elekana | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Ion Cutelaba | L | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 2:51) |
| 2024-10-26 | Rafael Cerqueira | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:51) |
| 2024-03-30 | Anton Turkalj | W | KO - Punch to Head (R3, 1:32) |
| 2023-08-15 | Paulo Renato Jr. | W | TKO - Punches (R1, N/A) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Junior Tafa Key Advantages
Compact counters from the pocket can end exchanges abruptly.
Lower absorption through measured pace and counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Aslan’s pace can force unfavorable trade density.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Trigger counters on first straight; reset often.
🚀 Ibo Aslan Key Advantages
Volume with cleaner reads wins entries/exits.
Reach supports jab/straight control and clean exits.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Must manage entries to avoid pocket counters.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab/straight pressure, force resets, avoid extended clinch.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Match Dynamics & Stylistic Clash
This matchup represents a classic striker vs. striker encounter where pace and volume clash with precision and power. Ibo Aslan's high-output, pressure-based approach (7.84 SLpM) creates a constant threat that forces Junior Tafa into defensive positions and counter-striking opportunities.
The fight dynamics heavily favor Ibo Aslan in sustained exchanges, as his volume advantage translates to approximately +68 significant strikes over a 15-minute period at equal accuracy. This creates a scoring advantage that becomes increasingly difficult for Junior Tafa to overcome, especially in later rounds.
However, Junior Tafa's measured approach (3.36 SLpM) and lower absorption rate (2.84 SApM vs 4.43) suggest he can weather storms and capitalize on defensive lapses, making this a battle between volume efficiency and power precision.
🎯Technical Breakdown & Statistical Edge
The statistical analysis reveals a comprehensive advantage for Ibo Aslan across multiple key metrics. His striking output edge (7.84 vs 3.36 SLpM) represents a 133% increase in volume, which directly translates to higher round-winning probability and knockout equity.
Defensively, Ibo Aslan's superior strike defense (63% vs 52%) means he not only throws more but gets hit less per attempt. This 11-percentage-point advantage compounds over time, as Junior Tafa must land significantly more strikes to achieve similar scoring impact.
Physical advantages further bolster Ibo Aslan's case: his +2" reach advantage (77" vs 75") provides better range control and cleaner entries/exits, while his knockdown rate (1.70 vs 0.43) suggests superior power that can end exchanges abruptly.
The combination of volume, defense, and physical advantages creates a statistical profile that heavily favors Ibo Aslan in a pure striking contest.
⚡Key Battle Areas & Strategic Considerations
Three critical phases will determine the outcome of this fight. First, the entry/exit efficiency battle where Ibo Aslan's jab-straight combinations and reach advantage create cleaner entries, while Junior Tafa must rely on timing and counter-striking to create scoring opportunities.
Second, the pace management phase where Ibo Aslan's volume pressure can overwhelm Junior Tafa's measured approach. The 133% output advantage means Junior Tafa must maintain exceptional accuracy and power to offset the volume deficit, particularly in rounds 2-3 where Ibo Aslan's conditioning and pressure become most effective.
Third, the finishing sequence phase where both fighters' 100% KO/TKO finish rates in victories create constant danger. Ibo Aslan's higher knockdown rate and volume suggest he's more likely to create finishing opportunities, while Junior Tafa's power remains a constant threat if he can land clean counters.
The strategic key for Junior Tafa lies in maintaining distance, avoiding sustained exchanges, and capitalizing on Ibo Aslan's over-commitment moments with powerful counters.
🏁Final Prediction & Victory Scenarios
Primary Pick: Ibo Aslan by KO/TKO or Decision. The statistical advantages in volume, defense, and physical attributes create a comprehensive edge that should translate to victory across multiple victory paths.
Ibo Aslan's most likely path to victory involves utilizing his volume and reach advantages to control the pace and range of exchanges. His 7.84 SLpM output, combined with 63% strike defense, allows him to win rounds through consistent pressure and cleaner striking exchanges. The +2" reach advantage supports his jab-straight combinations and creates opportunities for clean exits without absorbing counter damage.
Junior Tafa remains dangerous throughout, particularly in early rounds where his power and timing can catch Ibo Aslan over-committing. His 100% KO/TKO finish rate in victories demonstrates the knockout threat he poses, especially if he can land clean counters during Ibo Aslan's aggressive entries.
The fight likely plays out as a high-paced striking contest where Ibo Aslan's volume and technical advantages gradually overwhelm Junior Tafa's power-based approach, leading to either a mid-to-late round stoppage or a clear decision victory based on significant strike differentials.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Additional Markets
🤖Analytical Model
Model Totals
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Target plus-money relative to ~49% finish equity.
GOOD VALUE
Two KO-oriented strikers; model favors ITD.
SLIGHT VALUE
Counter-shot longshot—only at strong plus-money.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Junior Tafa
Counter finish path
Efficiency over volume
Minimal likelihood
💥Outcome Distribution - Ibo Aslan
Primary finishing route
Minute-winning pace
Club-and-sub scenarios
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Stacked edges for Ibo Aslan; early KO variance persists.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Major volume edge (7.84 vs 3.36 SLpM)
- • Better strike defense (63% vs 52%)
- • +2" reach for range control
- • Negligible offensive wrestling on both sides
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Junior Tafa's early counter power
- • KO variance in striker vs striker fights
- • Over-commitment entries from Ibo Aslan
🏁Executive Summary
Fight Overview: This Light Heavyweight clash between Junior Tafa (6-4) and Ibo Aslan (14-3) represents a compelling striker vs. striker matchup where volume and pressure clash with precision and power. Set for three rounds in the large 30-foot Octagon at UFC Perth, the fight dynamics heavily favor Ibo Aslan based on comprehensive statistical analysis.
Statistical Dominance: Ibo Aslan enters with overwhelming advantages across key metrics: 133% higher striking output (7.84 vs 3.36 SLpM), superior defense (63% vs 52%), +2" reach advantage (77" vs 75"), and higher knockdown rate (1.70 vs 0.43). These advantages compound over time, creating a scoring profile that becomes increasingly difficult to overcome.
Victory Paths: Ibo Aslan possesses multiple paths to victory. His volume and reach advantages support a pressure-based approach that can overwhelm Junior Tafa's measured style. The statistical edge translates to approximately +68 significant strikes over 15 minutes, providing both knockout equity and decision-winning potential. His superior defense means he can maintain this output while minimizing damage.
Risk Assessment: While Ibo Aslan holds clear advantages, Junior Tafa remains dangerous throughout, particularly in early rounds. His 100% KO/TKO finish rate in victories and lower absorption rate (2.84 SApM) demonstrate his ability to capitalize on defensive lapses and land fight-ending counters. The knockout variance inherent in striker vs. striker matchups creates constant danger.
Strategic Implications: The fight will likely play out as a high-paced striking contest where Ibo Aslan's technical advantages gradually overwhelm Junior Tafa's power-based approach. Ibo Aslan should utilize his reach and volume to control exchanges, while Junior Tafa must maintain distance and capitalize on over-commitment moments with powerful counters.
Final Verdict: Ibo Aslan by KO/TKO or Decision. His comprehensive statistical advantages in volume, defense, and physical attributes create a clear edge that should translate to victory across multiple paths. However, Junior Tafa's knockout power and counter-striking ability ensure he remains live throughout, particularly in early exchanges where his timing and power can catch Ibo Aslan over-committing.
Confidence Level: 7.5/10. The stacked statistical advantages for Ibo Aslan provide high confidence in the prediction, though the knockout variance inherent in striker vs. striker matchups and Junior Tafa's proven finishing ability maintain a degree of uncertainty that prevents maximum confidence.