Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Colby Thicknesse
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Aleksandre Topuria | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Marvin Malunes | W | TKO (Elbows) (R1, N/A) |
| 2024-10-27 | Norman Agcorpra | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 2:38) |
| 2024-07-21 | Jufri Gobel | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R1, 1:50) |
| 2024-03-02 | Michael Mannu | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Josias Musasa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Carlos Vera | L | Submission (rear naked choke) (R1, 3:16) |
| 2024-09-10 | Otari Tanzilovi | W | Decision (split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Marvin Malunes | W | TKO (Flying Knee) (R1, 2:28) |
| 2024-03-02 | Abdelghani Saber | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R1, 1:45) |
| 2024-02-09 | Mostafa El Azoumy | W | TKO (Strikes) (R1, 0:19) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Josias Musasa advantage: 55.3%Cardio Score
Colby Thicknesse advantage: 33.3%Overall Rating
Colby Thicknesse advantage: 0.7%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (42.4 vs 41.9) and Grappling Composite (12.5 vs 43.6). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on Avg Fight Time, striking pace, takedown activity and lower finish dependency; measures sustained output and endurance.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score for a holistic snapshot of capabilities.
Striking Composite
Colby Thicknesse advantage: 1.2%Grappling Composite
Josias Musasa advantage: 248.8%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted mix of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef and inverse SApM to capture total striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Built from TD/15, TD Accuracy, TD Defense and Sub Attempts/15 with sensible caps.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Colby Thicknesse Key Advantages
Lower SApM and responsible defense support minute-winning in later rounds.
Profile improves as pace normalizes; decision equity grows late.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Musasa’s early surges and accuracy can create knockdown danger.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Counter entries, ride the clinch, hunt the back in scrambles.
🚀 Josias Musasa Key Advantages
44% accuracy with long levers creates early command.
Adds takedown/sub attempts to diversify win conditions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
29% StrDef and 4.60 SApM invite counters.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Control range with jab/low kick, then step in with power flurries.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Stylistic Dynamics
Musasa’s length and offensive metrics tilt early minutes; Thicknesse’s defense and cardio improve his chances the longer it goes.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
5" reach edge, +1.0 SLpM and +14% accuracy for Musasa vs superior StrDef and lower SApM for Thicknesse. TD/15 and Sub/15 favor Musasa.
🏁Final Prediction
Lean Josias Musasa by early KO/TKO or competitive decision; Colby Thicknesse live by decision or scramble-driven submission.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Current market pricing from BetOnline compared to model estimates
📊Current Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
SPECULATIVE
Model: 12% | Market: ~12%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 55-60% | Market: varies
MARKET PRICED
Model ~58% | Market often similar
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Distribution of likely outcomes by method
🥋Outcome Distribution - Colby Thicknesse
Minute-winning late as pace normalizes
Opportunistic back takes in scrambles
Lower early power profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Josias Musasa
Primary finishing window early
Winning minutes at range
Occasional opportunistic looks
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive matchup with split edges
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to small UFC samples
✅Supporting Factors
- • Musasa early finishing threat with reach/accuracy
- • Thicknesse defensive metrics and lower SApM
- • Clear win paths for both sides
- • 3-round format increases variance but limits late fades
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Musasa defensive gaps (SApM 4.60, StrDef 29%)
- • Thicknesse low accuracy limits scoring ceiling
- • Limited UFC résumés elevate uncertainty
- • Early finish volatility at Bantamweight