Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara
UFC Perth • Perth, Australia
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Loma Lookboonmee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-05 | Bruna Brasil | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Denise Gomes | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Elise Reed | W | Submission (rear-naked choke) (R2, 0:44) |
| 2023-05-20 | Elise Reed | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-05 | Loopy Godinez | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last Fights - Alexia Thainara
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Molly McCann | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 4:32) |
| 2024-09-24 | Rose Conceição | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-17 | Thaiane Souza | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 4:09) |
| 2023-08-26 | Sabrina Oliveira | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Taynara Almeida | W | Submission (Armbar) (R1, 0:08) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Alexia Thainara advantage: 48.8%Cardio Score
Loma Lookboonmee advantage: 33.3%Overall Rating
Alexia Thainara advantage: 7.3%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54.2 vs 73.9) and Grappling Composite (55.6 vs 89.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown pace, and decision tendency. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Alexia Thainara advantage: 36.3%Grappling Composite
Alexia Thainara advantage: 61.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Loma Lookboonmee Key Advantages
Clean shot selection and low damage intake (2.47 SApM) allow her to bank minutes and win decisions.
Reliable takedown defense with usable inside trips to reverse and control from top when needed.
Low-kick cadence and lateral exits in a 30-ft cage help avoid body-lock chains and reset distance.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Accepting clinch pummeling can expose the back against Alexia's fast hooks and RNC chains.
Front-half grappling swings favor Alexia; must slow the first 7–8 minutes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Kick at range, frame off long entries, and use inside trips to blunt momentum and bank control time.
Prioritize control over damage once on top; avoid risky back-exposure scrambles.
🚀 Alexia Thainara Key Advantages
Fast back-take sequences from clinch or shots; constant RNC threats once hooks are in.
Aggressive clinch-to-mat returns; strong on body locks and mat control in early minutes.
Longer reach helps force defensive reactions and clinch entries against shorter striker.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio beyond 7–8 minutes in the UFC remains unproven; risks losing clinch battles and getting leg-kicked at range.
If pummeling stalls against the fence, momentum shifts to Loma's control and clean scoring.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Crowd behind long 1–2s, pin to fence, chain mat returns and hunt immediate hooks for RNCs.
Press early; her finishing equity is front-loaded before decision-winning minutes accumulate for Loma.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Pace Dynamics
Large-cage movement plus leg kicks favor Loma Lookboonmee over extended minutes. If Alexia Thainara wins early body-locks, her submission chains become the primary path to an upset.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Alexia Thainara owns a pronounced grappling edge (89.5 composite, 2.30 Sub/15), while Loma Lookboonmee carries superior striking efficiency (56% StrAcc) and better cardio profile. The first-contact wrestling exchanges likely determine momentum.
🎯Key Battle Areas
Early: clinch/back-take sequences for Alexia Thainara. Late: distance management, leg kicks, and top-control minutes for Loma Lookboonmee.
🏁Final Prediction
Alexia Thainara's danger is front-loaded and submission-centric; Loma Lookboonmee's path is control and accumulation. Over 15 minutes, we favor Loma Lookboonmee by decision in a competitive fight.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 23%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62%
⚠️Key Market Notes
- • No verified BetOnline prices at the moment; live odds boxes will show N/A until available.
- • Model favors a decision-heavy Lookboonmee win profile in large cage dynamics.
- • Thainara's early submission equity priced into model props but carries small-sample volatility.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Lookboonmee
Primary path to victory via control and defense
Less common finishing route
Occasional top-control openings
💥Outcome Distribution - Thainara
Less likely given style mix
Possible with sustained control
Primary finishing method via RNC chains
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Thainara
- • First 5–7 minutes: maximum submission danger
- • Distance compressions to fence critical for body-locks
- • Must avoid stalled clinch pummeling
🎯Progressive Dominance - Lookboonmee
- • Round 2–3: cardio and clean scoring pull away
- • Inside trips and top control blunt submission trees
- • Leg-kick accumulation impacts entries
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive stylistic clash
Confidence Level
Model confidence tempered by small-sample inflation on Thainara's UFC metrics.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Lookboonmee's striking efficiency and low damage intake
- • 74% takedown defense vs body-lock chains
- • Large-cage dynamics and late-round minute winning
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Thainara's front-loaded submission danger
- • Reach disadvantage for Lookboonmee (5.5")
- • Variance from small UFC sample for Thainara
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup hinges on first-contact wrestling. If Thainara secures the back early, her submission danger can flip rounds quickly. If Lookboonmee survives the early surge, her cardio, ringcraft, and clinch trips enable decision-winning control over fifteen minutes.
Prediction: Lookboonmee by Decision in a competitive bout that rewards minute-winning craft over early submission threats.