Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Navajo Stirling
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-11 | Ivan Erslan | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-15 | Tuco Tokkos | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-10 | Phillip Latu | W | KO/TKO (punch) (R2, 2:21) |
| 2024-06-14 | Sam Kei | W | TKO (strikes) (R3, 1:48) |
| 2024-05-04 | Stuart Dare | W | KO (knee & punches) (R1, 3:46) |
Last 5 Fights - Rodolfo Bellato
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Paul Craig | NC | Illegal upkick (R1, 4:59) |
| 2025-02-08 | Jimmy Crute | D | Majority draw (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Ihor Potieria | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 4:17) |
| 2023-10-03 | Murtaza Talha | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 4:46) |
| 2023-05-27 | Acácio dos Santos | W | Decision (unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Rodolfo Bellato advantage: 3.8%Cardio Score
Navajo Stirling advantage: 23.3%Overall Rating
Navajo Stirling advantage: 9.8%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65.9 vs 57.0) and Grappling Composite (43.4 vs 56.4). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish profile. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and performance.
Striking Composite
Navajo Stirling advantage: 15.6%Grappling Composite
Rodolfo Bellato advantage: 30.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and SApM to measure overall striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15 to evaluate the complete grappling game.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Navajo Stirling Key Advantages
Low SApM with strong StrDef wins distance minutes.
Jab-first approach and counter timing limit exchanges.
Clean counters create swing moments.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bellato's top control can swing rounds.
High-variance brawls reduce distance edge.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feints, jab, calf kicks, keep center.
Win minutes; avoid unnecessary risks.
🚀 Rodolfo Bellato Key Advantages
Accuracy-first pressure during exchanges.
Slight TD/15 and TDAcc edges; sub attempts live.
KO/TKO majority with club-and-sub threat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lower StrDef vs counters leads to losing optics.
Walking onto counters raises KD risk.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Compress cage, level-change, ride positions.
Damage creates openings for submissions.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Large cage favors range strikers with strong defensive metrics. Stirling's 61% StrDef and 2.49 SApM match that profile; Bellato's 46% StrDef and 6.00 SApM introduce volatility. The additional real estate amplifies Stirling's footwork, jab, and counter timing while reducing Bellato's ability to corral him into fence sequences. If Stirling keeps exchanges initiated in the center and forces quick breaks on clinch entries, round optics and strike differential accrue in his favor.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Stirling grades higher in distance striking and damage control; Bellato brings slight wrestling edges and a high finishing rate. Outcome hinges on phase control. Stirling's defensive reliability and lower SApM historically translate to cleaner scoring, while Bellato's success depends on compressing space, creating mat returns, and stacking ride time. Leg kicks and counter traps will determine whether entries arrive on Stirling's terms or Bellato's pressure windows.
🎯Key Battle Areas
Early clinch/wrestling attempts vs Stirling's sprawl-and-brawl; mid-round distance optics; closing discipline for round banking. First engagements matter—defend initial level changes, deny inside ties, and force resets. If Bellato establishes fence pins or back-body locks, submission chains and ground-and-pound become live; if not, Stirling's clean reads and jab-kick rhythm bank minutes.
🏁Final Prediction
Stirling 67% via distance control; Bellato 33% via finishing/grappling leverage. Competitive 3-rounder leaning to decision for Stirling. Expect Stirling to prioritize center control, jab-first entries, and counter hooks off level-change feints. Bellato's upset equity clusters in fence traps, club-and-sub swing moments, or late top-control sequences that flip close rounds.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Navajo Stirling
Primary path
Counter finishes
Low
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodolfo Bellato
One-shot power
Less likely
Live if top control
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7.5/10 - Clear stylistic lean with live variance
Confidence Level
Range striker edge; finish variance present.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Defensive gap (StrDef/SApM)
- • KD threat with counters
- • Big cage favors range
- • Better 15-min pacing
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Small UFC samples
- • Bellato's finishing rate
- • Grappling sequences
- • Pocket exchange variance
🏁Executive Summary
The stylistic lean favors Navajo Stirling through distance control, shot selection, and damage mitigation. In a large cage, Stirling's jab-first entries, counter timing, and 61% StrDef with 2.49 SApM typically bank clean minutes. Rodolfo Bellato remains dangerous via power transitions and fence-to-mat sequences, but he must consistently compress space to unlock top control and submission chains.
Key swing variables include: early takedown entry success for Rodolfo Bellato, leg-kick tolerance for Navajo Stirling, and referee separation cadence in clinch phases. If Stirling defends first attempts and keeps the center, the striking optics should stack; if Bellato establishes rides, back takes, or damage off cage pins, round narratives flip quickly.
Final call: Navajo Stirling by decision most often, with Rodolfo Bellato live as a volatility underdog through finishing and grappling leverage. Model holds 67-33 overall with elevated variance in sequences initiated along the fence.