Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Carlos Ulberg
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Jan Błachowicz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Volkan Oezdemir | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Alonzo Menifield | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:12) |
| 2023-09-10 | Jung Da-un | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 4:49) |
| 2023-05-13 | Ihor Potieria | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 2:09) |
Last 5 Fights - Dominick Reyes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Nikita Krylov | W | KO (punch) (R1, 2:24) |
| 2024-12-07 | Anthony Smith | W | TKO (elbows and punches) (R2, 4:46) |
| 2024-06-08 | Dustin Jacoby | W | KO (punches) (R1, 2:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Ryan Spann | L | KO (punches) (R1, 1:20) |
| 2021-05-01 | Jiří Procházka | L | KO (spinning back elbow) (R2, 4:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Carlos Ulberg advantage: 13.3%Cardio Score
Carlos Ulberg advantage: 0.4%Overall Rating
Carlos Ulberg advantage: 5.8%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (64.9 vs 59.5) and Grappling Composite (49.5 vs 41.6). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Carlos Ulberg advantage: 9.1%Grappling Composite
Carlos Ulberg advantage: 19.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Reyes' retreat‑and‑counter style flourishes, but Ulberg's jab‑kick volume and cage craft have recently banked rounds even against elite opposition.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Ulberg carries the sustained‑output edge with strong accuracy and top‑tier takedown defense, providing pace control when needed. Reyes remains the better moment fighter with one‑shot southpaw power and improved recent form.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Lead‑hand control, early counter reads from Reyes, and Ulberg's defensive responsibility after exchanges will decide critical moments. Over 5 rounds, Ulberg's clinch/wrestle insurance can slow tempo and bank extended minutes if needed.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Ulberg; moments favor Reyes. Over five rounds, the sustained volume and wrestling insurance tilt the contest to Ulberg unless Reyes lands early. Projection: Ulberg edges a decision or finds an early finish, with late rounds increasingly favoring his pace control.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs Moments – Books may overweight Reyes' KO streak while undervaluing Ulberg's round‑winning pace.
- • Defensive wrestling impact – High TDDef (86%) provides insurance that isn't fully priced.
- • Southpaw volatility – Early KO threat drives uncertainty; later rounds trend toward Ulberg.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ulberg
Primary path via volume and control
Clean entries create finishing chances
Occasional RNC threat when pace breaks
💥Outcome Distribution - Reyes
Main finishing method via rear‑left
Lower minute‑winning profile overall
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Reyes
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest KO equity before Ulberg's reads settle.
- • Intercept kicks: Counter calf‑kicks with straight lefts.
- • Keep space: Avoid prolonged clinch exchanges at the fence.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ulberg
- • Minute winning: Jab, inside low‑kicks, and check hooks rack up points.
- • Pace control: Use clinch/wrestle if stung to cool tempo.
- • Defense first: Exit the pocket after combinations to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7.5/10 for a 5-round matchup - Volume edge with live southpaw danger
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Ulberg in round‑winning with KO volatility from Reyes.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with similar accuracy
- • Superior takedown defense (86%)
- • Proven ability to bank rounds vs elite
- • Viable clinch/wrestle Plan B
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Southpaw counter lanes early
- • Ulberg hittable when over‑extending
- • Reyes' KO resurgence (3 straight)
- • Light heavyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Ulberg owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile and better defensive wrestling, while Reyes carries genuine early knockout danger. Over five rounds in a big cage, the model leans 62–38 toward Ulberg, with decision and early KO as primary routes and deeper rounds increasingly favoring his pace control.
Prediction: Ulberg by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Reyes KO R1.