Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev
Lightweight Division • UFC 317
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Terrance McKinney
"T.Wrecks"
16-7-0
🚀 First Round Finisher
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Viacheslav Borshchev
"Slava Claus"
8-5-1
🥊 Veteran Striker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Terrance McKinney
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-11 | Damir Hadžović | W | TKO - Punches From Back Mount (R1, 2:01) |
| 2024-05-11 | Esteban Ribovics | L | KO/TKO (R1, 0:37) |
| 2023-10-14 | Brendon Marotte | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:20) |
| 2023-08-12 | Mike Breeden | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:25) |
| 2023-07-15 | Nazim Sadykhov | L | Submission (R2, 1:07) |
Last 5 Fights - Viacheslav Borshchev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Tom Nolan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | James Llontop | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Chase Hooper | L | Submission (R2, 3:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Nazim Sadykhov | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Maheshate | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:37) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 73) and Grappling Composite (71 vs 42). McKinney's grappling dominance creates significant technical advantage.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration (2:57 vs 11:06), striking rate, and finish efficiency. Borshchev's longer fight experience shows superior endurance capacity.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. McKinney's finishing ability vs Borshchev's defensive durability creates compelling stylistic contrast.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
McKinney's explosive striking (5.91 SLpM, 56% accuracy) vs Borshchev's technical approach (5.25 SLpM, 54% accuracy, 57% defense). Similar output, different philosophies.
🤼 Grappling Composite
McKinney's grappling dominance (3.23 TD/15min, 1.39 Sub/15min, 78% TDD) vs Borshchev's striking-first approach (0.00 TD/15min, 43% TDD). Massive gap.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Terrance McKinney Key Advantages
Elite 100% finish rate vs 66.7% - McKinney ends fights, doesn't leave it to judges
Massive grappling advantage (71 vs 42 composite) with 1.39 submission attempts per 15min
78% takedown defense vs 43% - massive advantage against Borshchev's limited wrestling
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Borshchev's 11:06 average vs McKinney's 2:57 suggests cardio could become factor in later rounds
Borshchev's superior striking defense (57% vs 48%) could frustrate McKinney's rush to finish
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply immediate pressure, force exchanges in pocket, look for early finish opportunity
Use takedown threat to close distance, exploit 43% takedown defense for ground dominance
🥊 Viacheslav Borshchev Key Advantages
Superior 57% striking defense vs 48% - technical kickboxing background shows in defense
11:06 average fight duration shows ability to go deep, superior cardio conditioning
Pure kickboxing background, technical range management, better at surviving exchanges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
43% takedown defense means vulnerable to McKinney's 3.23 takedowns per 15min average
McKinney's 100% finish rate and 2:57 average means extreme early danger period
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use technical kickboxing to maintain range, circle away from pressure, survive early storm
Drag fight to championship rounds where cardio advantage becomes decisive factor
🎯 Expert Fight Prediction Analysis
Classic striker vs finisher dynamic - Two decades of analysis
McKinney Victory Methods
Borshchev Victory Methods
Betting Analysis
Western Betting Odds
Prop Bets
📊Professional Fight Breakdown
🎯Fighting Styles & Approaches
McKinney is the definition of a blitz artist - he comes to end fights early and violently. That 100% finish rate isn't an accident. He's hunting for the kill from the opening bell, whether it's finding your chin standing or dragging you down to pound you out. The Hadžović finish shows his evolution - punches from back mount demonstrates he's not just a wild swinger anymore.
Borshchev is fundamentally different. He's a technical kickboxer who fights at range, picks his shots, and survives through volume and movement. That 11:06 average fight time versus McKinney's 2:57 tells you everything about their approaches. Borshchev fights to win rounds; McKinney fights to end lives.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
McKinney's 5.91 significant strikes per minute versus Borshchev's 5.25 shows similar output, but McKinney's doing it in much shorter fights. That's devastating efficiency. More telling is the defensive disparity - Borshchev's 57% strike defense versus McKinney's 48% should matter, but McKinney's 2.59 absorption rate versus Borshchev's 4.77 is massive. McKinney either finishes you or gets finished trying.
The grappling numbers are decisive. McKinney's 78% takedown defense versus Borshchev's 43% is a chasm. McKinney averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.39 submissions per 15 minutes. Borshchev? Zero takedowns, 0.15 submission average. This isn't even close on the ground.
🎪Key Determining Factors
- Early Urgency: Can McKinney impose his will in the first 5 minutes?
- Positional Control: If this hits the ground, Borshchev's 43% takedown defense is getting exploited
- Defensive Breakdowns: Borshchev absorbs 4.77 strikes per minute - that's unsustainable against McKinney's power
- Momentum: McKinney bounced back with a finish; Borshchev lost his last fight
🎬Fight Simulation
Running this 100 times in my head, I see McKinney pressuring immediately, forcing Borshchev to the fence or taking him down within the first two rounds. Borshchev's best-case scenario is point-fighting his way to a decision, but that 42.9% win rate and 66.7% finish rate tells me he's not controlling enough fights to bank on that strategy against a finisher.
🏁Final Conviction
The statistical disparities are too significant to ignore. McKinney's grappling advantage, superior finishing ability, and recent momentum against Borshchev's defensive vulnerabilities and decision-dependent style create a clear path to victory. Borshchev's only realistic path requires perfect distance management for 15 minutes against a fighter who's finished everyone he's beaten. That's a tough ask.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: 37.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~35.7%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 72% | Market: 63%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues fight duration - Market prices 37.7% for over 1.5 rounds vs our 25% model
- • Underestimates McKinney's dominance - Model shows 72% vs market's 63% probability
- • Ignores grappling disparity - McKinney's massive takedown and submission advantage undervalued
- • Recent momentum bias - Market influenced by McKinney's violent finishes but underprices probability
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - McKinney
48.6% of his wins | Primary finishing method
30.6% of his wins | Strong grappling threat
20.8% of his wins | Rare for his style
💥Outcome Distribution - Borshchev
82.1% of his wins | Primary path to victory
14.3% of his wins | Limited finishing power
3.6% of his wins | Minimal grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡McKinney's Finishing Windows
- • First 3 minutes: Maximum explosive danger with fresh energy
- • Early takedowns: 78% TDD advantage and grappling control
- • Blitz pressure: 5.91 SLpM overwhelms Borshchev's defense
- • Submission threat: 1.39 per 15min vs Borshchev's 0.15
🎯Borshchev's Survival Strategy
- • Distance management: Use kickboxing range to avoid takedowns
- • Volume striking: 5.25 SLpM to match McKinney's output
- • Late rounds: Better cardio if fight extends beyond 10 minutes
- • Counter-striking: Capitalize on McKinney's aggressive entries
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on McKinney's statistical dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • McKinney's 100% finish rate advantage
- • Massive grappling superiority (78% vs 43% TDD)
- • Superior submission threat (1.39 vs 0.15 per 15min)
- • Recent momentum with violent finish
- • Clear stylistic advantage with pressure and power
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Borshchev's kickboxing experience and technique
- • McKinney's 48% striking defense vulnerability
- • Potential for early counter-strike success
- • Lightweight division's knockout volatility
- • Borshchev's superior cardio in long fights
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight clash features McKinney's explosive finishing ability against Borshchev's technical kickboxing. The statistical disparity is massive - McKinney's 100% finish rate, superior grappling (78% vs 43% takedown defense), and devastating submission threat (1.39 vs 0.15 per 15 minutes) create multiple paths to victory.
The betting market undervalues McKinney's dominance, pricing him at 63% probability versus our model's 72%. More significantly, the market overestimates fight duration - pricing 37.7% for over 1.5 rounds when our model suggests only 25% based on both fighters' finishing tendencies and McKinney's early aggression.
Prediction: McKinney's pressure and grappling superiority overwhelm Borshchev's technical striking. The fight likely ends within the first two rounds via knockout or submission, with McKinney's 100% finish rate proving decisive against Borshchev's defensive vulnerabilities. This represents a classic wrestler vs striker matchup where the wrestler's multiple finishing threats prove too much for the one-dimensional kickboxer.