Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van
UFC Men's Flyweight • UFC 317
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-7-0
⭐ Slight Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Joshua Van
14-2-0
⭐ Slight Underdog
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Brandon Royval
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Tatsuro Taira | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Brandon Moreno | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Matheus Nicolau | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:09) |
| 2022-05-07 | Matt Schnell | W | Submission (R1, 2:14) |
Last 5 Fights - Joshua Van
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Bruno Silva | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:01) |
| 2025-03-08 | Rei Tsuruya | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Cody Durden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Édgar Cháirez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Charles Johnson | L | KO/TKO (R3, 0:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊Technical Score Methodology
Royval: 68/100 | Van: 72/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (71 vs 66). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Royval: 74/100 | Van: 81/100
Based on average fight duration (Royval: 2.6 rounds vs Van: 2.9 rounds), striking rate per minute (4.46 vs 8.2), takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯Overall Rating Methodology
Royval: 71.0/100 | Van: 76.5/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance. Both composite scores are weighted equally to balance technical ability with physical attributes.
🥊Striking Composite Analysis
Royval: 65/100 | Van: 78/100
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability. Van's significant advantage in accuracy (55% vs 40%) drives his superior composite score.
🤼Grappling Composite Analysis
Royval: 71/100 | Van: 66/100
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat. Royval's elite submission rate (1.25/15min) gives him the grappling edge.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
🔥 Van Key Advantages
🎯 Striking Volume & Accuracy
Superior Output8.2 sig strikes/min at 55% accuracy vs Royval's 4.46 at 40%. Van's ability to outland Royval nearly 2:1 while maintaining superior precision gives him a clear path to victory over 15 minutes.
🛡️ Defensive Wrestling
Elite TDD81% takedown defense neutralizes Royval's best path to victory. Van's ability to keep fights standing plays directly into his striking advantages and high-volume game.
⚡ Youth & Momentum
4-Fight Win StreakAt 23 with a 4-fight win streak, Van is entering his prime while improving with each performance. His wins over Durden and Silva show increasing confidence and finishing ability.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Royval's submission threat and grappling experience could overwhelm Van in scrambles
Royval's championship experience and pressure fighting could expose Van's relatively limited UFC exposure
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain distance with superior footwork and use elite takedown defense to avoid grappling
Overwhelm with superior striking volume and accuracy to accumulate damage over 15 minutes
⭐ Royval Key Advantages
🤼 Submission Threat
Elite Ground Game1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes with 3 UFC submission wins. His guillotine against Schnell and opportunistic submissions create constant danger whenever fights hit the ground.
👑 Elite Competition Experience
Title Fight VeteranRecent wins over Moreno and Taira prove Royval can rise to elite level. His championship experience and pressure fighting could overwhelm Van's relatively limited UFC exposure.
📏 Physical Advantages
Size & Reach4" height and 3" reach advantages provide natural distance control and leverage. These physical advantages become magnified in scrambles and clinch exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Van's superior striking volume and elite takedown defense could keep Royval at disadvantageous range
Van's 84% higher striking output could overwhelm and accumulate damage over 15 minutes
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance aggressively and force scrambles where his submission threat becomes dangerous
Press for early submission opportunities before Van can establish striking rhythm and distance control
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: 55%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: ~40.8%
AVOID
Model: 61.5% | Market: 69.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Van's striking dominance - 84% volume advantage not reflected in odds
- • Overvalues Royval's submission threat - Market fixated on grappling despite TDD disparity
- • Distance betting mispriced - Over 2.5 rounds heavily overpriced at -225
- • Method props undervalued - Van by decision offers excellent value at +145
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Van
Superior volume + accuracy dominance
Accumulating damage through volume
No historical submission threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Royval
Elite submission threat in scrambles
Less likely due to striking disadvantage
Opportunistic power in exchanges
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Royval
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum submission danger before striking volume takes over
- • Scramble situations: Elite opportunistic grappling (1.25 subs/15min)
- • Pressure phases: Force clinch work and takedown attempts
- • Van's defensive lapses: Capitalize on striking defense gaps (59%)
- • Early aggression: Disrupt Van's rhythm before volume builds
🎯Progressive Dominance - Van
- • Volume supremacy: 84% striking advantage (8.2 vs 4.46/min) accumulates
- • Distance control: Use footwork and timing to avoid grappling
- • Defensive wrestling: Elite 81% TDD vs Royval's 75% TDA
- • Accuracy advantage: 55% vs 40% creates consistent damage
- • Late round cardio: Youth advantage at 23 vs 32 years old
📊Round-by-Round Probability Breakdown
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on Van's quantifiable statistical dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume advantage (84% higher output)
- • Superior accuracy creating consistent damage (55% vs 40%)
- • Elite takedown defense neutralizes primary threat (81%)
- • Youth and physical prime advantage (23 vs 32)
- • Market inefficiency offers exceptional value (-122 vs -165)
- • Statistical composite scores favor Van decisively
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Royval's elite submission threat (1.25 attempts/15min)
- • Van's relatively limited UFC sample size
- • Scrambles and transitions favor Raw Dawg's experience
- • Flyweight division's inherent volatility
- • Single submission attempt can end fight instantly
- • Royval's championship-level opposition experience
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight contender clash represents a textbook striker vs grappler dynamic, with Van's technical striking dominance creating the most compelling statistical narrative. The numbers tell a decisive story: Van's 84% striking volume advantage (8.2 vs 4.46/min), superior accuracy (55% vs 40%), and elite takedown defense (81%) form an almost impenetrable foundation for victory.
The betting market appears to significantly undervalue Van's advantages, creating exceptional value at -122 when our analytical model suggests fair odds closer to -165. The market's 55% implied probability for Van substantially underestimates his 62% true probability, representing a 7% edge that translates to significant long-term value for informed bettors.
While Royval's submission threat (1.25 attempts per 15 minutes) remains the primary risk factor, Van's takedown defense statistics suggest this threat is significantly mitigated. The age gap (23 vs 32) and Van's composite striking score advantage (78 vs 65) provide additional layers of confidence in the prediction.
Final Prediction: Van's technical superiority, youth advantage, and defensive wrestling prove decisive over 15 minutes. While Royval creates early submission danger, Van's relentless striking volume and superior accuracy accumulate decisive advantages, leading to a clear unanimous decision victory after controlling the majority of exchanges through superior speed, timing, and output.