Bantamweight Division • 3 Rounds

Santiago Luna vs Quang Le

Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Noche

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Fighter • Odds source: BetOnline

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Pressure grappler

Fighter • Odds source: BetOnline

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Volume wrestler

Santiago Luna

"Borderboy"

6-0-0

Entram Gym (TIJ)

Age:

21Young

Height:

5'9"Taller

Reach:

——

Leg Reach:

——

Fighter Metrics

Total UFC Fights

UFC Record

0-0

Current Streak

Win Rate

100%

Finish Rate

100%

Avg Fight Time

7:18

Victory Methods

Win Round Distribution

Quang Le

"Bang"

9-2-0

The Academy MN

Age:

33Veteran

Height:

5'6"Shorter

Reach:

70"Advantage

Leg Reach:

——

Fighter Metrics

Total UFC Fights

UFC Record

1-2

Current Streak

Win Rate

81.8%

Finish Rate

66.7%

Avg Fight Time

11:07

Victory Methods

Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Santiago Luna

Date	Opponent	Result	Method
2025-05-22	Desmond Manabat	W	KO (Punch) (R1, 2:45)
2024-09-06	Magomed Bayduev	W	Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 4:41)
2024-04-07	Josimar Cuevas	W	TKO (Punches) (R3, 1:17)
2023-10-27	Emilio Galindo	W	Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:43)
2023-07-28	Gerardo Aguillón	W	Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:34)

Last 5 Fights - Quang Le

Date	Opponent	Result	Method
2025-05-03	Gaston Bolaños	W	Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:54)
2024-11-23	Long Xiao	L	KO/TKO (Punch) (R3, 1:28)
2024-08-10	Chris Gutiérrez	L	Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-01-12	Cody Peterson	W	Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:12)
2023-09-22	Sal Guerriero	W	TKO (Punches) (R2, 2:47)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

Santiago Luna advantage: 4.4%

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

💎Value Opportunities

HIGH VALUE

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (No) (-105)

Model: 65.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +13.8%

Rationale

Combined finish probability (Le 32% + Luna 33%) = 65%. Luna carries early KO/Sub bursts; Le adds submission and GNP equity if control sequences stick. Price still below fair.

MEDIUM VALUE

Quang Le Moneyline (+100)

Model: 61.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +11.0%

Rationale

Model leans Le via 3.15 TD/15, safer cardio and TDD. Big cage favors resets and round-winning control. Even-money line underrates the minute-winning path.

LOW VALUE

Either Fighter by Submission (+250)

Model: 35.0% | Market: 28.6% | Edge: +6.4%

Rationale

Le Sub ~20% (back takes off mat-returns) + Luna Sub ~15% (RNC-heavy regional record). Slightly positive vs market. Note correlation with No Distance; size positions accordingly.

50.0/10047.9/100

Cardio Score

Quang Le advantage: 46.6%

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

💎Value Opportunities

HIGH VALUE

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (No) (-105)

Model: 65.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +13.8%

Rationale

Combined finish probability (Le 32% + Luna 33%) = 65%. Luna carries early KO/Sub bursts; Le adds submission and GNP equity if control sequences stick. Price still below fair.

MEDIUM VALUE

Quang Le Moneyline (+100)

Model: 61.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +11.0%

Rationale

Model leans Le via 3.15 TD/15, safer cardio and TDD. Big cage favors resets and round-winning control. Even-money line underrates the minute-winning path.

LOW VALUE

Either Fighter by Submission (+250)

Model: 35.0% | Market: 28.6% | Edge: +6.4%

Rationale

Le Sub ~20% (back takes off mat-returns) + Luna Sub ~15% (RNC-heavy regional record). Slightly positive vs market. Note correlation with No Distance; size positions accordingly.

43.1/10063.2/100

Overall Rating

Quang Le advantage: 19.3%

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

💎Value Opportunities

HIGH VALUE

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (No) (-105)

Model: 65.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +13.8%

Rationale

Combined finish probability (Le 32% + Luna 33%) = 65%. Luna carries early KO/Sub bursts; Le adds submission and GNP equity if control sequences stick. Price still below fair.

MEDIUM VALUE

Quang Le Moneyline (+100)

Model: 61.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +11.0%

Rationale

Model leans Le via 3.15 TD/15, safer cardio and TDD. Big cage favors resets and round-winning control. Even-money line underrates the minute-winning path.

LOW VALUE

Either Fighter by Submission (+250)

Model: 35.0% | Market: 28.6% | Edge: +6.4%

Rationale

Le Sub ~20% (back takes off mat-returns) + Luna Sub ~15% (RNC-heavy regional record). Slightly positive vs market. Note correlation with No Distance; size positions accordingly.

46.5/10055.5/100

📊 Technical Score

Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Captures overall skill breadth.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, output rates, takedown work rate, and finish dependence.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores to summarize capabilities.

Striking Composite

Santiago Luna advantage: 24.8%

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

💎Value Opportunities

HIGH VALUE

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (No) (-105)

Model: 65.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +13.8%

Rationale

Combined finish probability (Le 32% + Luna 33%) = 65%. Luna carries early KO/Sub bursts; Le adds submission and GNP equity if control sequences stick. Price still below fair.

MEDIUM VALUE

Quang Le Moneyline (+100)

Model: 61.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +11.0%

Rationale

Model leans Le via 3.15 TD/15, safer cardio and TDD. Big cage favors resets and round-winning control. Even-money line underrates the minute-winning path.

LOW VALUE

Either Fighter by Submission (+250)

Model: 35.0% | Market: 28.6% | Edge: +6.4%

Rationale

Le Sub ~20% (back takes off mat-returns) + Luna Sub ~15% (RNC-heavy regional record). Slightly positive vs market. Note correlation with No Distance; size positions accordingly.

51.4/10041.2/100

Grappling Composite

Quang Le advantage: 12.6%

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

💎Value Opportunities

HIGH VALUE

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (No) (-105)

Model: 65.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +13.8%

Rationale

Combined finish probability (Le 32% + Luna 33%) = 65%. Luna carries early KO/Sub bursts; Le adds submission and GNP equity if control sequences stick. Price still below fair.

MEDIUM VALUE

Quang Le Moneyline (+100)

Model: 61.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +11.0%

Rationale

Model leans Le via 3.15 TD/15, safer cardio and TDD. Big cage favors resets and round-winning control. Even-money line underrates the minute-winning path.

LOW VALUE

Either Fighter by Submission (+250)

Model: 35.0% | Market: 28.6% | Edge: +6.4%

Rationale

Le Sub ~20% (back takes off mat-returns) + Luna Sub ~15% (RNC-heavy regional record). Slightly positive vs market. Note correlation with No Distance; size positions accordingly.

48.5/10054.6/100

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend

SLpM: Strikes/Min

StrAcc: Strike Accuracy

StrDef: Strike Defense

TD15: Takedowns/15min

TDAcc: TD Accuracy

TDDef: TD Defense

SubPer15: Subs/15min

Santiago Luna

Quang Le

Note: We do not have official UFC metrics for Santiago Luna (UFC debut). Visuals for Luna's rates are placeholders (0) and composites are estimates based on regional tape and results.

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0 per min2.7 per min

Quang

Difference: 2.70 per min

Striking Accuracy

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0%37%

Quang

Difference: 37.00%

Striking Defense

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0%47%

Quang

Difference: 47.00%

Strikes Absorbed/Min

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0 per min4.53 per min

Quang

Difference: 4.53 per min

Takedowns/15min

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0 per 15min3.15 per 15min

Quang

Difference: 3.15 per 15min

Takedown Accuracy

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0%35%

Quang

Difference: 35.00%

Takedown Defense

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0%100%

Quang

Difference: 100.00%

Submissions/15min

Advantage:Quang (+Infinity%)

0 per 15min0.5 per 15min

Quang

Difference: 0.50 per 15min

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis

39%

Santiago Luna Win Probability

Early submission/KO windows

61%

Quang Le Win Probability

Wrestling volume and control

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Cage & Geography

Large cage favors Le's resets and level changes, reducing extended fence clinch time for Luna.

🎯Technical Dynamics

Le's 3.15 TD/15 and perfect TDD in a small sample suggest phase control; Luna's submission hunting remains the high-leverage equalizer.

🧩Key Battlegrounds

First 7–8 minutes for Luna; if extended, Le's chain-wrestling and cardio bank minutes. Scramble discipline determines back-exposure risk.

🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities

📊Market Odds

Santiago LunaN/A

Implied Probability: N/A

Quang LeN/A

Implied Probability: N/A

🤖Analytical Model

Santiago Luna+156

Model Probability: 39%

Quang Le-156

Model Probability: 61%

🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)

100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data

🏆Outcome Distribution - Le

By Decision29%

Control time and ride positions

By KO/TKO12%

Accumulated damage, ground-and-pound

By Submission20%

Back takes off mat returns

💥Outcome Distribution - Luna

By KO/TKO18%

Power shots in entries/exits

By Decision6%

Banking minutes is rarer path

By Submission15%

Club-and-sub, back takes

⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)

Advantage: Luna

Early finish equity

Advantage: Even

Adjustments, scramble discipline

Advantage: Le

Pace and control time bank minutes

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Conviction level: 7.0/10 — Le's cardio/control vs Luna's early danger

7.0/10

Confidence Level

Reliable UFC data on Le; debut uncertainty on Luna

✅Supporting Factors

• Le: 3.15 TD/15 and proven control time
• Le: 100% TDD to date, safe scrambles
• Big cage aids resets and level changes
• Luna: real early finish threat but untested UFC TDD

⚠️Risk Factors

• Luna's 100% regional finish rate (R1/R3 bursts)
• Le's pocket defense (4.53 SApM, 47% StrDef)
• Debut variance and competition step up
• Bantamweight volatility

🏁Executive Summary

Model leans 61–39 toward Le on wrestling volume and safer round-winning profile in a big cage. Luna's clearest paths are early submissions or damage off entries; if Le survives the initial windows, his chaining and cardio typically secure minutes.

Prediction: Le by Decision or Submission. Live hedge: Luna early KO/Sub.

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