Rob Font vs David Martinez
UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rob Font
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Jean Matsumoto | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Kyler Phillips | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Cory Sandhagen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-08 | Adrian Yanez | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 2:57) |
Last 5 Fights - David Martinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Saimon Oliveira | W | KO - Knee and Punches (R1, 4:38) |
| 2024-10-01 | Xavier Franklin | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-28 | Jose Zarauz | W | KO - Spinning Wheel Kick (R4, 4:17) |
| 2022-10-07 | Axel Osuna | W | TKO - Punches (R4, 4:14) |
| 2022-05-27 | Arturo Vergara | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:08) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Rob Font advantage: 10.5%Cardio Score
Rob Font advantage: 200.0%Overall Rating
Rob Font advantage: 75.9%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (30.0 vs 70.0) and Grappling Composite (75.0 vs 25.0). Balances striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects endurance and ability to maintain pace through rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
David Martinez advantage: 133.3%Grappling Composite
Rob Font advantage: 200.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submissions per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The larger octagon amplifies distance management and favors a veteran who can win minutes behind a structured jab. Font’s double‑jab into step‑off routinely freezes entries and buys time to re‑center, denying the pocket that Martinez needs to convert power. The fence becomes a key variable: when Font exits clean on angles, exchanges are elongated on his terms; when Martinez corrals the cage line, he creates the short lanes required for knees and right‑hand counters. Early initiative therefore hinges on who dictates the first step after resets—Font’s lateral footwork or Martinez’s lane cuts.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Martinez brings crisp counter selection and high defensive reads in a limited UFC sample—tight guard, shoulder rolls and quick pull counters. Font offsets with proven layered processes: jab variety, high‑low feints, and clinch/wrestle looks that stall momentum and bank control optics. Over three rounds, Font’s cardio and pacing profile is more reliable; he can switch to short clinch interludes or level‑change threats to cool exchanges, whereas Martinez relies more onmoment creation. If Font avoids clean center‑line counters, his minute‑winning scales round to round.
🧩Key Battle Areas
1) Lead‑hand duel: if Font’s jab wins, he controls rhythm and distance; if Martinez times the jab, momentum flips. 2) Cage exits vs pursuit: Font must beat lane cuts with angles; trapped sequences should default to clinch resets, not trades. 3) Tempo management: targeted clinch rides and occasional level changes keep the fight on Font’s schedule and blunt burst sequences from Martinez.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Font; moments favor Martinez. If Martinez converts an early read into a clean counter or knee through the center, he can flip rounds quickly; otherwise Font’s accumulation, clinch management and defensive resets should stitch together two of three rounds in a high‑level, pace‑controlled bout.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52.0% | Market: 29.0% | Edge: +23.0%
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 55.0% | Market: 32.3% | Edge: +22.7%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 52.0% | Market: 29.9% | Edge: +22.1%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 26.0% | Market: 16.7% | Edge: +9.3%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 26.0% | Market: 16.7% | Edge: +9.3%
SMALL VALUE
Model: 64.0% | Market: 58.3% | Edge: +5.7%
⚠️Overpriced / Fades (per model)
- • Over 2.5 (−300) — Market 75.0% vs Model 48.0% (−27.0%)
- • Goes the Distance: Yes (−270) — Market 73.0% vs Model 45.0% (−28.0%)
- • Rob Font by Points (+110) — Market 47.6% vs Model 36.0% (−11.6%)
- • David Martinez by Points (+210) — Market 32.3% vs Model 9.0% (−23.3%)
- • Either Fighter by Submission (+1000) — Market 9.1% vs Model 3.0% (−6.1%)
- • Win Inside Distance (No Action) −115 (both) — Market ~53.5% vs Model ≤28–26% (overpriced)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
🏆Outcome Distribution - Rob Font
Base path via jab and range control
Accumulated damage sequences
Opportunistic guillotine/front-headlock
💥Outcome Distribution - David Martinez
Counter right and step-in knees
Must consistently win exchanges
Minimal submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Veteran minute-winning vs live counter power
Confidence Level
Font's reach, experience, and cardio in big cage vs one-fight UFC sample
✅Supporting Factors
- • Reach advantage (+4") and proven jab game
- • Grappling insurance: occasional clinch/takedowns
- • Strong schedule and 19 UFC fights
- • Cardio/pace over three rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Martinez KO threat early
- • Superior defensive/accuracy metrics (small sample)
- • Font hittable on jab entries when extended
- • Age curve vs young power puncher
🏁Executive Summary
The model leans 64–36 toward Font on the strength of repeatable minute‑winning tools—jab variety, resets, and clinch management—augmented by superior pacing over three rounds. Martinez brings the higher finish volatility with clean pull counters and step‑in knees when he compresses space, but his success window narrows if he’s forced to follow angles rather than cut them. The matchup is best framed asprocess vs moments: if Font keeps entries honest and denies set‑feet counters, he aggregates damage and optics; if Martinez solves the jab early, the fight swings on singular momentum shifts.
Prediction: Font by Decision most often; secondary path Font late KO via accumulation. Live hedge remains Martinez KO R1 in case early reads materialize.