Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexander Hernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Chase Hooper | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:58) |
| 2025-03-15 | Kurt Holobaugh | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Austin Hubbard | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Damon Jackson | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Bill Algeo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Diego Ferreira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Grant Dawson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Mateusz Rębecki | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:51) |
| 2023-05-20 | Michael Johnson | W | KO - Punch (R2, 1:50) |
| 2021-12-18 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | TKO - Knee to Body (R2, 3:26) |
| 2021-05-08 | Gregor Gillespie | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Diego Ferreira advantage: 2.4%Cardio Score
Alexander Hernandez advantage: 5.7%Overall Rating
Alexander Hernandez advantage: 2.1%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53.5 vs 58.7) and Grappling Composite (39.6 vs 36.5).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish avoidance. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace across three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score, offering a holistic view of skill and conditioning for a three-round bout.
Striking Composite
Diego Ferreira advantage: 9.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted blend of SLpM, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense and inverse SApM to capture output, efficiency and damage mitigation.
Grappling Composite
Alexander Hernandez advantage: 8.5%🤼 Grappling Composite
Weighted combination of TD/15, TD Accuracy, TD Defense, and Sub/15 to represent offensive/defensive wrestling and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The 30‑ft cage expands exit lanes and rewards footwork-first gameplans. Hernandez leverages lateral movement and first‑layer TDD (72%) to keep phases in open space, where his burst entries and jab‑low‑kick rhythm score. Ferreira benefits from the +2" reach tracking at mid‑range and can still accumulate damage if exchanges lengthen, but geography broadly favors the defender.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Ferreira edges striking efficiency via higher SLpM and lower SApM, translating to better round‑to‑round durability in boxing minutes. Hernandez owns the clearest categorical gap with TDD (72% vs 58%), which historically suppresses Ferreira’s best win conditions (prolonged control, scramble‑driven submissions). Net: small technical tilt even, geography/defense tilt Hernandez.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Hernandez’s burst entries/speed vs Ferreira’s straight boxing pressure and club‑and‑sub sequences. Hernandez should mix surprise level changes (finish to optics, exit quickly) to bank optics without risk. Ferreira must convert fence holds into mat returns and scrambles to unlock submission equity.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Hernandez; moments favor Ferreira. Projection: Hernandez edges a decision in a range‑controlled fight (two clear rounds, one competitive), with live early KO chances on entries. Ferreira remains dangerous for a late momentum swing in extended boxing exchanges or a transition‑based submission if clinch chains take hold.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Hernandez
Range control, minute-winning
Burst entries, early finishing lanes
Low sub threat historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Ferreira
Accumulated pressure into damage
Volume boxing wins minutes
Live club-and-sub threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ferreira
- • Early counters: Catch entries, force pocket exchanges
- • Chain grappling: Single to body lock; hunt transitions
- • Scrambles: Spike sub threat in movement
🎯Progressive Dominance - Hernandez
- • Minute winning: Jab, low-kicks, quick exits
- • Pace control: Opportunistic TDs for optics then break
- • Risk management: Avoid extended combos in pocket
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7.0/10 — TDD gap + space + momentum
Confidence Level
Hernandez 61% edge with live Ferreira volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • 72% TDD vs 58% — clearest category gap
- • Big-cage geometry favors the defender
- • Recent momentum (3W) with improved pacing
- • Ferreira aging curve, decision loss last out
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hernandez hittable in pocket (SApM 4.62)
- • Ferreira volume and counters in prolonged exchanges
- • Live submission risk in scrambles
- • Lightweight volatility in short bursts
🏁Executive Summary
Hernandez profiles as the steadier minute‑winner given his takedown defense, footwork, and ability to reset exchanges in space. Ferreira’s path concentrates in sustained boxing pressure and scramble‑enabled submissions; his durability and output keep rounds competitive, but geography and defensive metrics slightly constrain his highest‑equity sequences.
With a three‑round horizon, pacing and early optics matter more than deep‑water attrition. Hernandez’s recent form (3‑fight streak including a late R1 KO) suggests reliable tempo over 15, while Ferreira’s finishing surges (R2–R3) remain the primary volatility source if he can extend clinch chains.
Prediction: Hernandez by Decision most often; KO/TKO live early. Live hedge: Ferreira Submission in scramble‑heavy sequences.