Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Perth
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kelvin Gastelum
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Joe Pyfer | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Daniel Rodriguez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Sean Brady | L | Submission - Kimura (R3, 1:43) |
| 2023-04-08 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-21 | Jared Cannonier | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Dustin Stoltzfus
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Nursulton Ruziboev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Marc-Andre Barriault | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 4:28) |
| 2024-06-08 | Brunno Ferreira | L | KO/TKO - Spinning Back Elbow (R1, 4:51) |
| 2023-12-02 | Punahele Soriano | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:10) |
| 2022-09-03 | Abus Magomedov | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 0:19) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Dustin Stoltzfus advantage: 1.6%Cardio Score
Kelvin Gastelum advantage: 21.0%Overall Rating
Kelvin Gastelum advantage: 9.7%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (50 vs 65). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Kelvin Gastelum advantage: 24.1%Grappling Composite
Dustin Stoltzfus advantage: 30.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a big cage, Gastelum's lateral movement helps keep the fight at boxing range. Stoltzfus' length can enforce distance early, but Kelvin's pocket craft typically banks minutes once entries are timed.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Gastelum owns the striking-defense edge (57% vs 47%) with higher SLpM, while Stoltzfus brings larger takedown and submission volume (2.26 TD/15, 1.29 Sub/15). First-layer TDD and scramble recoveries determine minute control.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Kelvin's straight left and counter hooks versus Dustin's level changes; wrist control in mat returns; and cage exits that deny extended clinch time are decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes tend to favor Gastelum; moments favor Stoltzfus' grappling threats. Projection: Gastelum edges a decision or finds KO lanes late if Dustin's entries slow.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 15.0% | Market: 11.8% | Edge: +3.2% | Fair: +567
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 48.0% | Market: 44.4% | Edge: +3.6% | Fair: +108
LOW VALUE
Model: 35.0% | Market: 32.3% | Edge: +2.7% | Fair: +186
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Over 2.5 (−180, 64.3%) vs model ~56% — rich at current price.
- • Goes the Distance (−155, 60.8%) vs model ~52% — inflated.
- • Kelvin Wins Inside Distance (+175, 36.4%) vs model ~27% — short; avoid chasing.
- • Kelvin by Points (+150, 40.0%) vs model 38% — near fair; minimal edge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Gastelum
Primary path via defense and boxing
Clean lanes when level changes are timed
Rare but possible in transitions
💥Outcome Distribution - Stoltzfus
Primary finishing route via chains
If extended clinch/top time accrues
Less common route at this level
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Stoltzfus
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest sub equity off mat returns.
- • Kick entries: Set up level changes behind kicks and long jabs.
- • Back exposure: Prioritize wrist rides and RNC chains.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gastelum
- • Minute winning: Jab-left hand, check hooks, and exits.
- • Pace control: Stuff or scramble and reset.
- • Clean optics: Land the last shot in exchanges.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 – Defensive edge and experience vs live sub threats
Confidence Level
Gastelum favored on optics over 15 minutes; early sub danger live.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher striking defense and similar output
- • Big-cage lateral exits limit clinch time
- • Strength of schedule and experience
- • Durable, rarely finished
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Stoltzfus' early chaining to back-takes
- • Kelvin hittable when over-committing
- • Grappling-first opponents historically tricky
🏁Executive Summary
Gastelum holds the consistent round-winning profile built on defense and compact boxing. Stoltzfus remains dangerous via early takedown chains into submission attempts. Over 15 minutes, the model leans 65–35 toward Kelvin with decision as the most common outcome.
Prediction: Gastelum by Decision or KO/TKO. Upset equity: Stoltzfus by Submission.