Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rob Font
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | Kyler Phillips | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-08 | Adrian Yanez | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:57) |
| 2022-04-30 | Marlon Vera | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-05 | Jose Aldo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Raul Rosas Jr.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Vince Morales | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Aori Qileng | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Ricky Turcios | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:22) |
| 2023-09-16 | Terrence Mitchell | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 0:54) |
| 2023-04-08 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (Font 55.6 vs Rosas 45.0) and Grappling Composite (Font 25.1 vs Rosas 52.6). Balances striking with grappling.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance across three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio scores for a holistic capability index.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Rob Font Key Advantages
Jab-first boxing maximizes large-cage space; punishes linear entries.
Output and accuracy edge to capture minutes at range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
TD defense (~42.6%) can be exploited by persistent entries.
📋 Likely Gameplan
First-layer defense and fast wall-walks; jab/low-kick rhythm to keep range.
🚀 Raul Rosas Jr. Key Advantages
Chains entries to body-locks, mat returns, and back takes.
Back control and RNC setups headline finishing paths.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low volume at distance can concede minutes to Font's jab.
📋 Likely Gameplan
2–3 TD attempts per minute in R1; pass to back and hunt the neck.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Matchup Dynamics
This bantamweight clash presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. Rob Font, the veteran boxer, relies on high volume and sharp technique, while Raul Rosas Jr., the young phenom, brings relentless wrestling and submission threats. The age and experience gap (38 vs 20) is significant, with Font having faced a higher caliber of competition over a longer career, while Rosas Jr. is still rapidly developing.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Font's striking composite (55.6) is superior to Rosas Jr.'s (45.0), driven by his elite SLpM (5.47 vs 2.67) and solid striking defense (55.7%). However, Rosas Jr. holds a massive grappling advantage, with a grappling composite of 52.6 compared to Font's 25.1. His TD/15 (7.11 vs 0.74) and Sub/15 (1.87 vs 0.31) are elite for the division, highlighting his primary path to victory. Font's historical TD defense (42.6%) is a clear vulnerability that Rosas Jr. will aim to exploit.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on who dictates the range. Font will seek to maintain distance with his 4.5" reach advantage and high-volume jab, punishing Rosas Jr.'s linear entries. Rosas Jr. will relentlessly pursue takedowns, aiming to secure top control and back takes to set up submissions. The scrambles, especially in the first minute of each round, will be crucial. If Font can quickly get back to his feet, he can negate Rosas Jr.'s grappling. If Rosas Jr. can consolidate control, he will dominate rounds. Both fighters show stable cardio for 3 rounds, but the effectiveness of control time versus striking volume will be key for judges.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Rosas Jr.'s path to victory is clear: secure takedowns, maintain positional control, and hunt for submissions. His high submission rate (32% of projected wins) and relentless pressure make him a constant threat on the ground. Font's path involves keeping the fight standing, utilizing his superior boxing to accumulate damage, and defending takedowns effectively. His ability to win by decision (20% of projected wins) or TKO (16%) relies on out-striking Rosas Jr. over three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
While Font's striking is technically superior and his reach is an advantage in a large octagon, Rosas Jr.'s overwhelming grappling volume and submission threat, combined with Font's historical vulnerability to takedowns, give the young prospect the edge. Rosas Jr.'s ability to chain wrestle and secure back control will likely be the decisive factor. Expect a competitive fight where Font has moments on the feet, but Rosas Jr. eventually imposes his will on the ground.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • No market odds available - Cannot compare directly, but model provides strong probabilities.
- • Model favors grappling dominance - Rosas Jr.'s TD/15 and Sub/15 are significant.
- • Font's TD defense vulnerability - A key factor in model's prediction.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Font
Primary path to victory via striking volume
Accumulated damage or clean shot
Least likely method
💥Outcome Distribution - Rosas Jr.
Primary threat weapon
Control time leads to scorecards
Less common but possible
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rosas Jr.
- • First 5 minutes: Maximize takedown attempts and secure early control.
- • Rounds 1-2: High finish rate in these rounds (4 R1, 3 R2 wins).
- • Chain wrestling: Overwhelm Font's TD defense with multiple attempts.
- • Back control: Primary setup for submissions.
🎯Window of Opportunity - Font
- • Maintain distance: Utilize reach and footwork to keep fight standing.
- • Defend early takedowns: Crucial to avoid being grounded.
- • Volume striking: Accumulate damage and out-point Rosas Jr.
- • Counter-wrestling: Exploit any mistakes in Rosas Jr.'s entries.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High-moderate confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Rosas Jr.'s overwhelming grappling volume (7.11 TD/15)
- • Elite submission threat (1.87 Sub/15)
- • Font's historically vulnerable TD defense (42.6%)
- • Rosas Jr.'s youth and rapid progression
- • Stylistic matchup favoring grappler in 3 rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Font's significant reach advantage (+4.5")
- • Font's high-volume, technical boxing
- • Large octagon favors striking and footwork
- • Rosas Jr.'s still-developing striking
- • Font's veteran experience
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight bout is a classic clash of styles: Rob Font's veteran boxing and volume striking against Raul Rosas Jr.'s relentless wrestling and submission prowess. While Font possesses a significant reach advantage and superior striking metrics (5.47 SLpM, 55.7% StrDef), Rosas Jr.'s grappling statistics are overwhelming (7.11 TD/15, 1.87 Sub/15), directly targeting Font's historical weakness in takedown defense (42.6%).
Our model predicts Rosas Jr. to win 62% of the time, primarily via submission (32%) or decision (26%), reflecting his ability to control the fight on the ground. Font's path to victory (38% probability) relies on keeping the fight standing and out-pointing his younger opponent.
Prediction: Rosas Jr.'s grappling dominance and Font's vulnerability to takedowns make this a favorable matchup for the young prospect. Despite Font's experience and striking advantages, Rosas Jr.'s relentless pressure and submission threat are expected to prevail, likely leading to a submission or a clear decision victory. The 7/10 confidence rating reflects the strong statistical backing for Rosas Jr.'s grappling, tempered by Font's veteran savvy and striking ability in a large octagon.