Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues
UFC Middleweight Division • UFC 317
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
24-8-0
🇸🇪 Sweden
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
16-6-0
🇧🇷 Brazil
Brazilian Power
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jack Hermansson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-10 | Joe Pyfer | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Roman Dolidze | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:09) |
| 2022-07-23 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-05 | Sean Strickland | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-05-22 | Edmen Shahbazyan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Gregory Rodrigues
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Jared Cannonier | L | KO/TKO (R4, 0:21) |
| 2024-07-27 | Christian Leroy Duncan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Brad Tavares | W | KO/TKO (R3, 0:55) |
| 2023-08-19 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:43) |
| 2023-01-21 | Brunno Ferreira | L | KO/TKO (R1, 4:13) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (76 vs 81) and Grappling Composite (78 vs 73). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🇸🇪 Jack Hermansson Key Advantages
Superior grappling composite score and 7 years more UFC experience
Longer reach and leg reach provide superior distance control and takedown leverage
Higher ELO rating indicates superior overall performance against top competition
🇧🇷 Gregory Rodrigues Key Advantages
Superior striking composite score (81 vs 76) with higher output and accuracy
Elite 89% takedown defense vs 81% - crucial against Hermansson's wrestling
Higher finish rate with explosive knockout power - most wins by KO/TKO
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Fight Summary
🥊Veteran vs Rising Power
This middleweight clash features the classic veteran skill versus rising power dynamic. Hermansson brings 7 years more UFC experience and a superior grappling game, while Rodrigues counters with explosive striking power and a 71.4% finish rate. The key battle will be whether Hermansson can implement his wrestling game against Rodrigues' elite 89% takedown defense.
⚔️Style Matchup Analysis
Hermansson's path to victory involves using his reach advantage to control distance, setting up takedowns, and leveraging his superior grappling experience. Rodrigues must keep the fight standing, utilize his height advantage and superior striking composite score to land the decisive blow. His 5 KO/TKO victories show he has the power to end fights quickly.
🔮Final Prediction
While both fighters bring compelling advantages, Hermansson's experience edge and proven ability to implement game plans against diverse opponents gives him a slight advantage. However, Rodrigues' explosive power and excellent takedown defense make this a competitive bout that could end suddenly. Expect an exciting clash between two well-rounded middleweights with the outcome likely determined by who can impose their preferred style most effectively.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 58% | Market: 36.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Estimated: ~+250
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 47.6% | Market: 46.5%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Rodrigues' recent form - Market doesn't account for level of competition
- • Undervalues Hermansson's experience - 17 UFC fights vs 8 for Rodrigues
- • Ignores grappling advantage - Hermansson's superior wrestling background
- • Recency bias - Rodrigues' recent KO wins overshadow technical matchup
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Hermansson
29.3% of his wins | Opportunistic finisher
48.3% of his wins | Wrestling control
22.4% of his wins | Grappling expertise
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodrigues
71.4% of his wins | Explosive power
28.6% of his wins | Limited cardio
No submission victories
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rodrigues
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum knockout danger
- • Round 1: 55.6% of his finishes occur here
- • Takedown defense: Elite 89% TD defense limits Hermansson's game
- • Striking power: Superior composite striking score (81 vs 76)
🎯Progressive Control - Hermansson
- • Round 2+: Experience and cardio show
- • Grappling control: Superior grappling composite (78 vs 73)
- • Adaptation: 17 UFC fights worth of experience
- • Late opportunity: Submission threat in round 3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high confidence with notable uncertainty factors
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear experience advantage (17 vs 8 UFC fights)
- • Superior grappling composite score
- • Better cardio and late-fight performance
- • Physical advantages (reach)
- • Significant market mispricing
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rodrigues' explosive knockout power
- • Elite takedown defense (89%)
- • Superior striking composite score
- • Hermansson's declining form
- • High finish rate matchup volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash presents a classic experience vs power matchup. While Rodrigues brings superior striking power and an elite takedown defense, Hermansson's overwhelming experience advantage (17 vs 8 UFC fights) and superior grappling skills create a compelling case for the underdog.
The betting market appears heavily influenced by Rodrigues' recent knockout power, creating exceptional value on Hermansson at +178. Our model indicates a 58% probability for Hermansson, significantly higher than the market's implied probability of 36.0%, representing a massive 22% edge.
Prediction: Hermansson's veteran experience and superior grappling game prove decisive. While Rodrigues presents early danger with his explosive power, Hermansson's ability to adapt and control the fight's pace in later rounds gives him the edge in this competitive middleweight bout.