Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
UFC Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Regional Résumé
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alessandro Costa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Kevin Borjas | W | TKO - Ground Strikes (R2, 1:35) |
| 2023-11-11 | Steve Erceg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Jimmy Flick | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 1:03) |
| 2022-12-17 | Amir Albazi | L | TKO - Uppercut to Ground Punches (R3, 2:13) |
| 2022-07-26 | Andres Luna Martinetti | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Alden Coria
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-25 | German Orpineda Ponce | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 3:21) |
| 2025-01-12 | Paris Moran | NC | Overturned (originally TKO - Punches) (R1, 3:12) |
| 2024-11-03 | Chris Ocon | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:22) |
| 2024-06-16 | Jose Leon | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 2:58) |
| 2024-01-21 | Alberto Trujillo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66 vs 0) and Grappling Composite (34 vs 0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Stylistic Dynamics
Costa's UFC-level precision, pace, and 90% takedown defense suggest a control-heavy striking match in the big cage. Coria's debut volatility brings real danger early, but without consistent access to top control his win minutes shrink. The 30‑ft cage amplifies Costa's ability to reset and accumulate clean scoring sequences; Coria's taller frame offers intercepting knees and long kicks but requires early momentum.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Costa owns the decisive defensive‑wrestling anchor and minute‑winning striking profile (4.14 SLpM @ 47% with 57% defense). He converts knockdowns into safe top for ground‑and‑pound rather than risking scrambles. Coria's win conditions: create chaos early, target knees up the middle, or secure quick topside control into arm‑triangle/front‑choke chains.
🎯Key Battle Areas
Location control (takedown denial), minute banking at range, and early‑volatility management. If Costa survives the first five minutes clean, expect rising body work and jab tempo to slow Coria's surges and widen the gap by late R2 into R3.
🏁Final Prediction
Lean Costa. With superior defensive metrics and UFC‑tested output, Costa is favored to control range and minutes. Coria remains live early but faces decreasing access to his finishing routes as the fight settles. Baseline expectation: clear 29‑28/30‑27 decision for Costa with live R2 GNP if a knockdown occurs.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 53.0% | Market: 50.0% | Edge: +3.0% | Fair: -113
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 28.0% | Market: 20.6% | Edge: +7.4% | Fair: +257
LOW VALUE
Model: 46.0% | Market: 45.5% | Edge: +0.5% | Fair: +117
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alessandro Costa
Primary path via minute winning and defense
Ground-and-pound or clean counters
Opportunistic if knockdowns occur
💥Outcome Distribution - Alden Coria
Explosive flurries and knees in R1–R2
Least likely due to minute deficits
Front-choke or arm-triangle chains from top
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Highest volatility for Coria's power and submissions.
- • 5-10 minutes: Costa's accuracy and defense steady the fight at range.
- • 10-15 minutes: Costa pulls away on minutes; late TKO or clear decision path.
Confidence Level
Strong model edge with debut volatility considerations
✅Supporting Factors
- • UFC-tested striking volume and accuracy
- • 90% takedown defense limiting submission routes
- • Proven R2 finishing pattern at UFC level
- • Big cage favors minute-winning strikers
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Debut volatility for Coria (unknown UFC pacing)
- • Early-power and front-choke threats
- • Elevation considerations if pace spikes
🏁Executive Summary
Costa's UFC‑proven minute‑winning style and elite takedown defense create a reliable path in a 3‑round, big‑cage setting. Coria's KO/sub mix carries real early jeopardy but requires immediate momentum; without it, Costa's jab, body work, and resets steadily separate the scorecards.
Round‑by‑round expectations: R1 is Coria's danger window; R2 trends even as Costa's accuracy slows the pace; R3 typically favors Costa on volume and defense. Conditioning and defense advantages compound late for Costa.
Final Verdict: Costa by Decision most likely (29‑28/30‑27), with live R2 TKO. Debut volatility keeps sprinkled outcomes live for Coria, but sustained minutes favor Costa.