David Martinez vs Carlos Vera
UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - David Martinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Saimon Oliveira | W | KO/TKO (punches) (R1, 4:38) |
| 2024-10-01 | Xavier Franklin | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-28 | Jose Zarauz | W | KO/TKO (R4, 4:17) |
| 2022-10-07 | Axel Osuna | W | KO/TKO (punches) (R4, 4:14) |
| 2022-05-27 | Arturo Vergara | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:08) |
Last 5 Fights - Carlos Vera
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Josias Musasa | W | Submission (RNC) (R1, 3:16) |
| 2024-02-17 | Rinya Nakamura | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-23 | Isaiah Gutierrez | W | Submission (Guillotine) (R1, 1:41) |
| 2022-04-24 | Kale Moniz | W | Submission (Guillotine) (R3, 3:18) |
| 2021-12-19 | Peter Caballero | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
David Martinez advantage: 34.1%Cardio Score
David Martinez advantage: 16.8%Overall Rating
David Martinez advantage: 24.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.9 vs 45.6) and Grappling Composite (25.0 vs 19.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
David Martinez advantage: 37.9%Grappling Composite
David Martinez advantage: 25.6%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Strikes Landed/Min
Striking Accuracy
Striking Defense
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Takedowns/15min
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Submissions/15min
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Dynamics
Three‑round bantamweight bout in a 30‑ft cage. Extra space helps the lower‑volume mover (Vera) survive early, but it also rewards efficient pressure. Martinez closes distance well, jabs into the right hand and works the body before exiting with frames/knees. If altitude is a factor, sustained pace favors the 26‑year‑old's output/defense profile; Vera benefits from slower exchanges and clean resets to long range where his accuracy matters most.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Martinez owns the striking minutes (5.40 vs 1.53 SLpM; 67% vs 50% StrDef). Vera has a cleaner accuracy rate (57% vs 52%) and the higher submission rate (1.64/15), but 25% TD defense creates positional risk on the fence where Martinez's knees score highly. Martinez rarely needs takedowns to win minutes; Vera needs clean entries or scrums where the neck is exposed.
🎯Key Battle Areas
1) Pocket entries and clinch breaks: Martinez's frame‑to‑knee vs Vera's guillotine/RNC. 2) Distance control: if Vera keeps long range, his accuracy shows; if Martinez collapses space, volume and damage optics snowball. 3) Pace at altitude: longer exchanges accentuate the youth/output edge.
🏁Final Prediction
Projection: Martinez 76-24. Most frequent script is Martinez by KO/TKO inside three; decision live if Vera survives the early surge. Vera's submission path remains credible but narrower.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 48%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - David Martinez
Wins minutes behind output and defense
Power in transitions and pocket exchanges
Lower submission equity
💥Outcome Distribution - Carlos Vera
Low power finishing
Slow-paced path
Primary finishing method
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Martinez damage moments; Vera survival and reads
- • 5-10 minutes: Vera accuracy/sub entries; Martinez body work
- • 10-15 minutes: Output gap and optics push cards to Martinez
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
Clear edges with submission variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Output and defense gap (SLpM, StrDef)
- • Youth/athletic curve
- • KO equity in pocket exchanges
- • Vera's 25% TD defense
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Front-headlock submissions
- • Small UFC sample size
- • Large cage mitigation of pressure
🏁Executive Summary
The numbers outline a striker‑vs‑scrambler match: Martinez's pace and defensive profile generate consistent scoring while Vera's accuracy and front‑headlock threats create episodic danger. In a large cage, Vera's survival improves, but fence sequences still favor Martinez given the TD‑defense gap (100% vs 25%) and knees in transition. If altitude is in play, the youth/output curve tilts late exchanges toward Martinez.
Final Verdict: Martinez by KO/TKO (Round 2–3) most often; Martinez by decision is viable if Vera withstands the early surge. Vera's upset route is a clean guillotine/RNC during a scramble or a slow‑paced out‑fight leading to a close decision.