Zach Reese vs Sedriques Dumas
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Zach Reese
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Duško Todorović | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Azamat Bekoev | L | TKO (ground & pound) (R1, 3:04) |
| 2024-08-24 | José Daniel Medina | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Julian Marquez | W | TKO (uppercut & hammerfists) (R1, 0:20) |
| 2023-12-02 | Cody Brundage | L | TKO (slam & punches) (R1, 1:49) |
Last 5 Fights - Sedriques Dumas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | L | TKO (left hook to ground strikes) (R1, 2:49) |
| 2024-08-03 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Nursulton Ruziboev | L | TKO (uppercut & ground punches) (R1, 3:18) |
| 2023-10-21 | Abu Azaitar | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Cody Brundage | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Technical Score
Zach Reese advantage: 50.0%Cardio Score
Zach Reese advantage: 25.0%Overall Rating
Zach Reese advantage: 38.0%Striking Composite
Zach Reese advantage: 15.4%Grappling Composite
Zach Reese advantage: 105.1%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Strikes Landed/Min
Striking Accuracy
Striking Defense
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Takedowns/15min
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Submissions/15min
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Zach Reese Key Advantages
2.88 takedowns per 15min with 58% accuracy vs 1.25 and 35% for Dumas; consistent control threat.
Higher output (4.28 SLpM) and superior accuracy (54%) create sustained scoring and finishing windows.
1.2 submissions per 15 vs 0.2 for Dumas; strong finishing equity on the mat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lower striking defense (43%) leaves counters available at range.
2" reach disadvantage can allow Dumas to score from outside if pace slows.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force wrestling exchanges each round to bank minutes and create finishing chances.
Attack legs/body to slow movement and corner Dumas against the fence.
🚀 Sedriques Dumas Key Advantages
79" reach, long kicks and jab help keep fight at distance and reduce exchanges.
Absorbs less (2.50 SApM) with measured output; can frustrate reckless entries.
Prefers decisions with movement and feints, minimizing chaotic exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
40% takedown defense makes prolonged clinch/ground time a key risk.
Vulnerable when opponents force fast starts and collapse distance early.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stick-and-move, jab and calf kicks, deny cage-cutting sequences.
Drag fight to the cards where his range tools and defense can edge rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Matchup Dynamics
Classic pressure-grappler vs range kickboxer. Reese's superior offensive metrics (volume, accuracy, takedowns, subs) and stronger finishing profile contrast with Dumas' low-tempo, defense-first approach designed to reach the judges' scorecards.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Reese leads most UFC stat categories (4.28 vs 2.10 SLpM, 58% vs 35% TDAcc, 1.2 vs 0.2 Sub/15). Dumas' edges are 55% striking defense and +2" reach. The key hinge is wrestling: if Reese secures 1–2 entries per round, control time and damage accumulate fast.
🎯Key Battle Areas
Cage cutting and clinch control vs outside footwork and jabs. Big cage favors movement, but Reese's takedown volume tends to compress space over time.
🏁Final Prediction
Lean: Zach Reese 66%-34%. Expect Reese to secure periodic takedowns and create dominant positions. Dumas' decision path exists through range control and limiting exchanges, but the wrestling and submission pressure give Reese the edge.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 36.0% | Market: 21.1% | Edge: +14.9%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 20.0% | Market: 13.3% | Edge: +6.7%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 16.0% | Market: 13.3% | Edge: +2.7%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Zach Reese
Primary path via control and defense
Ground-and-pound or standing flurries
Armbar/RNC threats in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Sedriques Dumas
Counters at range
Best route via pace control
Lower submission output historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯Progressive Control - Reese
- • Round-by-round clinch and takedown attempts accumulate control time
- • Finishing windows via ground strikes and submissions
- • Body/leg kicks to reduce Dumas' mobility
🧭Decision Route - Dumas
- • Stick-and-move with low volume, jab and calf kicks
- • Frame in clinch and reset to center to avoid mat
- • Minimize exchanges, keep optics clean for judges
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Clear stylistic edges but early volatility
Confidence Level
Projection favors wrestling/finishing dynamics; big cage tempers certainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear superiority in takedown volume and accuracy
- • Higher offensive output and accuracy on the feet
- • Real submission threat vs low sub attempts
- • Recent 15-minute performances sustain pace
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Reese's historical R1 volatility (early losses)
- • Dumas' reach and defensive reads in open space
- • Big cage aids movement; altitude/pace could matter
🏁Executive Summary
Reese carries the broader, more reliable toolkit for three rounds. Wrestling volume, top control, and submission pressure combine with superior offensive output to generate multiple paths to win. Dumas remains a live underdog only if he keeps the fight clean at range and suppresses grappling exchanges with footwork, frames, and exits.
Round-by-round, expect Reese to bank minutes through clinch entries and level changes, forcing scoring optics even in slower phases. Dumas' best window is early before Reese establishes the cage-cut and mat returns; otherwise his path narrows to a lower-tempo decision predicated on movement and jabs.
Bottom line: model projects 66–34 Reese with finishing equity via ground-and-pound or opportunistic subs. Decision equity still present for both, but sustained wrestling pressure is the decisive lever in a 3-round format.