Jose Medina vs Duško Todorović
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Jose Medina
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Ateba Gautier | L | KO/TKO – Knee (R1, 3:32) |
| 2024-08-24 | Zach Reese | L | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-03 | Magomed Gadzhiyasulov | L | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-31 | Fernando Filho | W | Decision – Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-15 | César Benítez | W | TKO – Ground & Pound (R1, 2:17) |
Last 5 Fights - Duško Todorović
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Zach Reese | L | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-09 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | L | KO/TKO – Punches (R1, 2:44) |
| 2023-03-18 | Christian Leroy Duncan | L | TKO – Knee Injury (R1, 1:52) |
| 2022-10-15 | Jordan Wright | W | TKO – Ground & Pound (R2, 3:12) |
| 2022-05-21 | Chidi Njokuani | L | TKO – Elbow (R1, 4:48) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Duško Todorović advantage: 57.3%Cardio Score
Jose Medina advantage: 21.3%Overall Rating
Duško Todorović advantage: 13.0%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (35.6 vs 57.9) and Grappling Composite (20.3 vs 29.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Duško Todorović advantage: 62.6%Grappling Composite
Duško Todorović advantage: 47.3%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Jose Medina Key Advantages
Round-1 danger with early-finish history.
Can extend minutes even when out-volumed.
Carries real stopping power in early exchanges; best chance is creating chaos and countering clean as Duško steps in.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
2.18 SLpM at 37% vs 4.79 @ 57%.
31% TDD invites clinch/top minutes.
If backed to the fence, output drops further and counters become harder to find.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sit on counters early, target the body, and keep the fight off the fence.
Chop lead leg on entries, exit on angles to avoid extended exchanges.
⚡ Duško Todorović Key Advantages
+2.61 SLpM and +20% accuracy edges.
Medina's 31% TDD opens control minutes.
Walks opponents to the fence and sustains output; creates natural entries for clinch work and level changes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Susceptible to big shots in R1.
Must avoid clean counters in the first five minutes where Medina is most live.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pin to fence, mix trips, secure top time.
Target body and lead leg to slow counters, then clinch to secure control time.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Statistical Analysis reveals clear advantages
The numbers indicate a pronounced minute-winning edge for Duško Todorović. His 4.79 SLpM at 57% accuracy versus Jose Medina's 2.18 at 37% creates sustained pressure and damage accumulation over time. Coupled with Medina's 31% TDD, Duško has multiple ways to bank control minutes when needed.
⚡Key Matchup Dynamics
In a standard octagon, the extra space still favors the pressure fighter given the stark output differential. Medina's clearest path is an early clean counter before the pace and clinch work settle the fight in Duško's preferred rhythm.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Duško Todorović: walk-down striking to pin to fence, mix in clinch rides and mat returns; decision or late TKO most likely. Jose Medina: early KO via counter while fresh, targeting defensive lapses on entries.
- Duško by TKO R2–R3 via cumulative damage at fence
- Duško by Decision if Medina stays upright but is out-landed
- Medina by KO R1 on clean counter during forward entries
🏁Final Prediction
68-32 model split reflects Duško's significant minute-winning advantages. Pick: Duško Todorović. Expect control through pressure and accuracy; Medina's upset path remains Round 1 power counter.
Betting view: Duško ML or by KO/TKO (moderate price) tienen sentido; exposición opcional a la varianza con Medina KO R1.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 48% finish equity
FAIR VALUE
Model: 72%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 26%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Outcome modeling based on fighter analytics
🏆Outcome Distribution - Duško Todorović
Pressure + accuracy, fence sequences
Minute-winning via volume and control
💥Outcome Distribution - Jose Medina
Early counter windows
Low minute-winning profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 min: Peak Medina danger via counters (highest KO threat)
- • 5-10 min: Duško establishes pressure and clinch entries
- • 10-15 min: Control minutes accrue for Duško; decision/late TKO threat rises
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Duško with live early KO risk from Medina
✅Supporting Factors
- • Duško's output/accuracy edge (+2.61 SLpM, +20% accuracy)
- • Medina's 31% TDD provides clinch/top insurance minutes
- • Better late-round expectation for Duško
- • Clearer decision and attritional TKO paths
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Medina's round-1 KO threat
- • Defensive lapses from Duško in early exchanges
- • Potential variance if counters land clean
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight matchup pits Medina's early counter power against Duško Todorović's sustained pressure and accuracy. The statistical gap in output and efficiency (4.79 @ 57% vs 2.18 @ 37%) combined with Medina's 31% takedown defense provides Duško multiple avenues to bank control minutes when needed.
While Medina can absolutely end the fight in the first five minutes, the likelier cadence favors Duško: walk-down striking to the fence, clinch pressure, and occasional top control. Over three rounds this produces consistent minute-winning, with attritional TKO or decision as primary outcomes.
Bottom Line: The 68–32 model split reflects clear advantages for Duško Todorović across volume, accuracy, and defensive insulation via clinch/top. Pick: Duško Todorovićwith Medina's Round 1 counter KO as the main volatility factor.