Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Opponent Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Claudio Puelles
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-24 | Fares Ziam | L | Split Decision (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Dan Hooker | L | TKO – Body Kick (R2, 4:06) |
| 2022-04-23 | Clay Guida | W | Submission – Kneebar (R1, 3:01) |
| 2021-12-04 | Chris Gruetzemacher | W | Submission – Kneebar (R3, 3:25) |
| 2021-06-05 | Jordan Leavitt | W | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Joaquim Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Drakkar Klose | L | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Clay Guida | W | Decision – Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | TKO – Ground-and-pound (R3, 3:25) |
| 2022-10-01 | Jesse Ronson | W | TKO – Flying knee & punches (R2, 3:02) |
| 2021-06-19 | Ricky Glenn | L | TKO – Punches (R1, 0:37) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TDs per 15min, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense, and Submission Attempts per 15min. Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Claudio Puelles Key Advantages
Elite leg-lock series and 1.17 submissions per 15 minutes create constant danger in scrambles.
3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes; persistence finishes singles against the fence.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low-volume kickboxing makes him trail on the cards when stuck at distance.
Historical weakness to body attacks as seen vs Hooker.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain single-legs to trips and hunt kneebar transitions on scrambles.
Use left teeps to the midsection to sap Silva's gas tank.
🚀 Joaquim Silva Key Advantages
3.66 SLpM vs 1.56; wins minutes on the feet and forces defensive grappling.
53% striking defense and 69% TDD help keep the fight upright.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lower-body submission awareness can be tested in scrambles.
High-output rounds can fade his gas tank; late rounds favor opponent.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab–low-kick, keep center, sprawl & brawl to force stand-ups.
Push pace early where finishing chances peak before wrestling takes over.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Big cage favors the striker. Silva resets angles and forces longer entries, where Puelles' level changes are more telegraphed.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Puelles owns the grappling volume advantage (3.17 TD15; 1.17 Sub15) and is most dangerous in transitions. Silva counters with superior SLpM (+2.10), better striking defense (53%) and 69% TDD to keep it upright.
⏱️Key Battle Windows
Silva's finishing window peaks in the first seven minutes. If the fight extends, Puelles' grinding style increases win equity as Silva's output fades.
🏁Final Prediction
Pick: Joaquim Silva by KO/TKO, Round 2. Minute-winning tools at range plus a cardio cliff for Silva late; submission danger from Puelles keeps him live but the striker's path is clearer early.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 35.0% | Market: 18.2% | Edge: +16.8%
Volume edge, early power windows and Puelles’ body‑shot vulnerability create elevated KO equity in R1–R2.
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 68.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +16.8%
Binary finish paths: Silva KO clusters and Puelles submission game both live; variance favors non‑decision.
LOW VALUE
Model: 39.0% | Market: 21.1% | Edge: +17.9%
Aggregates Silva’s KO upside with Puelles’ small but live standing TKO scenarios; still materially underpriced.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies (Model vs Market)
- KO paths discounted: Silva KO 35% (model) vs +450 (18.2%).
- Decision overvalued: Goes the Distance −125 (55.6%) vs model 32% decision total.
- Submission market is sharp: Puelles by Sub +300 (25.0%) vs model 24% — minimal edge, avoid as primary.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Puelles
Primary finishing path
If he extends control time
Low likelihood
💥Outcome Distribution - Silva
Main finishing method
Minute-winning on the feet
Opportunistic only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Silva volume and power at range
- • Better strike and takedown defense
- • Puelles relies on lower-percentage entries in open space
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Puelles' kneebar sequences can end the fight at any moment
- • Silva cardio variability after high-output rounds
- • Scramble-heavy sequences increase variance
🏁Executive Summary
Statistical edges lean striker-friendly: Silva's superior volume, precision and takedown defense should win most minutes. However, Puelles remains dangerous throughout with leg-locks and chain wrestling.
Prediction: Joaquim Silva by KO/TKO in Round 2 with a moderate confidence rating. If Silva can survive late grappling sequences, he should secure the decision or finish.