Alice Pereira vs Montserrat Rendon
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night Noche UFC
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Experience Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alice Pereira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Samara Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-31 | Karla Lacerda | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:13) |
| 2024-04-28 | Kristiane Silva | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:50) |
| 2023-11-25 | Sharolayne Almeida | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:30) |
| 2023-08-18 | Raquel de Andrade | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:04) |
Last 5 Fights - Montserrat Rendon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-23 | Darya Zhelezniakova | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Tamires Vidal | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-28 | Brittney Cloudy | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-19 | Claudia Zamora | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-11-19 | Kristina Pettigrew | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and the ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score for a holistic view of fighter capability combining skill level and physical conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Alice Pereira Key Advantages
Clean straight shots and counters; most live early.
Longer frame and faster reactions at striking range.
Controls striking distance; straight shots land first and last when in space.
Clean 1–2s and intercepting shots threaten entries, especially in Round 1.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rendon's cage control and takedown cycles reduce striking space.
If stuck on the cage, output drops and takedown defense gets tested repeatedly.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stay off fence, work 1–2s, punish entries with knees/uppercuts.
Circle off, jab feints, punish level changes with uppercuts/knees.
🚀 Montserrat Rendon Key Advantages
54% TD accuracy; proven clinch pressure and control minutes.
Style and metrics trend toward round-winning control and retention of top position.
Comfortable at UFC pace; durable in 15-minute fights.
Comfortable grinding fights at UFC tempo; cardio holds up to sustain control time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low accuracy (28%) and 3.90 SApm can leave defensive gaps.
Most vulnerable in open space early; must avoid clean counters while closing distance.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press to fence, shoot head-inside singles, stack minutes on top.
Mix head‑inside singles with trips and mat returns; keep Alice on fence to bank minutes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
- • Best paths: KO/TKO (33%), Decision (4%)
- • Needs clean exits from clinch, first-layer TDD holds
- • Best path: Decision (52%)
- • Secondary: Low KO/sub equity (4%/4%) via attrition or opportunistic subs
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Match Dynamics
Rendon's wrestling and control minutes are reliable over three rounds, while Alice's explosive striking offers a real upset path early. The unknown in Alice's TDD creates volatility.
Key leverage points: cage positioning, first shot defense, and scramble urgency after failed shots.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Projected composites: Alice 66/50 strike/grapple vs Rendon 47/68. UFC metrics back Rendon's takedown game (3.00 TD/15, 54% TDAcc, 100% TDD).
Volume vs control: Alice needs 25–35 sig strikes landed to flip optics; Rendon needs 6–8 minutes of control or 2–3 takedowns with damage.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Center control and first-layer TDD for Alice vs. fence wrestling and resets for Rendon. Scorecards likely favor Rendon if clinch time accrues.
- Jab vs level change timing
- Underhooks and head position along the fence
- Ref separation tolerance if stalemates occur
🏁Final Prediction
Pick: Montserrat Rendon 60%-40%. Most common path is decision for Rendon; Alice's KO equity remains the main risk.
Leans: Rendon Dec, Alice KO hedge.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive market analysis for this matchup
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Totals
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 52.0% | Market: 33.3% | Edge: +18.7%
Model projects control‑minutes and clinch cycles favor Rendon over 3 rounds. Volume suppression and fence work tilt cards.
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 50.0% | Market: 32.6% | Edge: +17.4%
Early finishing windows: Pereira’s R1 KO pressure and Rendon’s fence‑ride to opportunistic subs make the total underpriced.
LOW VALUE
Model: 33.0% | Market: 22.2% | Edge: +10.8%
Pereira’s early power and height/reach leverage create KO clusters in R1–R2, especially before clinch slow‑downs set in.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies (Model vs Market)
- Decision outcomes discounted: Rendon by Points priced at 33.3% vs model 52% (clear edge on control minutes and cage time).
- Totals misalignment: Under 2.5 at 32.6% while model sits at 50% given Pereira early KO clusters and Rendon opportunistic subs.
- Avoid decision chalk on Pereira by Points (+135 ≈ 42.6%) — model only 4% decision equity on her side; mismatch to narrative.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Montserrat Rendon
Control minutes path
Accumulation/GnP
Occasional subs
💥Outcome Distribution - Alice Pereira
Main finishing route
RNC flashes
Lower-prob path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0–5 min: Alice most dangerous; counters on level changes
- • 5–10 min: Rendon clinch volume rises; cage riding time grows
- • 10–15 min: Optics favor Rendon with sustained control
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence; debut variables for Alice
✅Supporting Factors
- • Rendon's proven UFC clinch/wrestling game
- • Alice's KO threat early with size/speed
- • Three-round format favors control minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Uncertain Alice TDD vs UFC-level wrestling
- • Rendon's low accuracy can allow counters
- • Debut variance and judging optics
🏁Executive Summary
Expect Rendon to pursue clinch pressure into takedowns and top control to bank rounds. Alice is most dangerous early at range, where her straight shots and speed can punish entries. Three-round structure increases the value of control minutes.
If Alice defends the first wave of shots and keeps the center, the fight swings toward her power. If Rendon consistently pins to the fence and chains takedowns, judges favor her. Scramble urgency and damage on top are swing factors.
Final view: Lean Montserrat Rendon by decision with respectable early KO threat for Alice Pereira. Betting approach favors small exposure on Montserrat Rendon Decision with a hedge on Alice Pereira KO lines.