Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule
UFC Fight Night • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jesus Aguilar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Rafael Estevam | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Stewart Nicoll | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:39) |
| 2024-02-24 | Mateus Mendonça | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Shannon Ross | W | KO/TKO - Overhand Right (R1, 0:17) |
| 2023-02-04 | Tatsuro Taira | L | Submission - Triangle-Armbar (R1, 4:20) |
Last 5 Fights - Luis Gurule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Ode Osbourne | L | TKO - Left Hook & GNP (R2, 1:54) |
| 2024-10-15 | Nick Piccininni | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-22 | Jacob Silva | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R4, 2:32) |
| 2024-04-21 | Alberto Trujillo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-22 | Gerardo Graniel | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66 vs 55) and Grappling Composite (82 vs 22). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, pace, and finishing tendencies. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense, and Submission Attempts per 15min. Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jesus Aguilar Key Advantages
64% of career wins by submission; averages 1.8 attempts per 15 minutes and finishes quickly once grounded.
Mixes single-legs into fence with body-lock trips; flows immediately to back-takes and chokes.
Absorbs just 1.1 sig-strikes/min with 59% striking defense — elite defensive metrics for flyweight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low stand-up volume can allow Gurule's output to build leads if takedowns stall.
35% TD accuracy and 40% TDD mean stuffed shots can lead to bottom positions.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab-level change, single to body-lock on the fence, trip finishes; immediately ride hips to back-takes.
Keep strike volume conservative at range; force clinch cycles to suppress Gurule's output and accumulate control time.
Prioritize mat-returns to hooks, trap wrists, attack RNC/guillotine chains; finish in rounds 1–2 if openings appear.
🚀 Luis Gurule Key Advantages
5.34 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy — well above division averages.
50% of career wins by KO/TKO, often via straight-right counters and calf-kick flurries.
First-layer defense is solid and forces scrambles when he anticipates shots.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Once grounded he concedes wrists and back-takes, creating submission danger.
Reactive TDD fades; exits with chin high lead to clean counters absorbed (3.74 SApM).
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep center, pump double-jab/low-kick combinations, circle to open side, and sprawl to stay upright.
Refuse guard; scramble to feet and target body late to sap Aguilar's shot speed.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
A classic grappler-versus-kickboxer dynamic. Aguilar's submission game and control sequences are positioned to neutralize Gurule's output if the fight hits the mat, while Gurule's path relies on pace, space, and clean counters inside the first two rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Aguilar holds decisive grappling advantages: 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes versus 0.68, 1.83 submission attempts versus none, and a far lower damage intake (1.10 SApM). Gurule's 5.34 SLpM and 49% accuracy are legitimate weapons, particularly in an open cage.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early range striking favors Gurule; clinch and mat sequences favor Aguilar. Scrambles at the cage are the hinge moments — if Aguilar converts rides to back control, submission equity spikes; if not, Gurule's output begins to snowball on the feet.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Aguilar's path: level changes off the jab, body-locks to mat returns, ride the hips to back-takes and neck attacks. Gurule's path: keep center, win the jab/low-kick battle, sprawl and separate, accumulate volume and hunt counters.
🏁Final Prediction
Expect Aguilar to create and convert grappling cycles in the first two rounds. Gurule's early volume and power are real threats, but the superior submission game tilts the bout toward Aguilar. Pick: Aguilar by submission in rounds 1–2.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Aguilar
Primary finishing path
Control-driven scorecards
Less frequent but live
💥Outcome Distribution - Gurule
Main finishing method
Volume striking path
Minimal submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Gurule
- • First 7–10 minutes: maximum striking edge and TDD effectiveness
- • Keep center and maintain stance discipline to deter level changes
- • Target body to reduce shot speed late
🎯Progressive Dominance - Aguilar
- • Increased cage pressure and chain wrestling as the fight matures
- • Mat returns to back-takes create submission sequences
- • Safer on damage profile; can bank control time
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear grappling edge tempered by Gurule's early striking danger.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant submission threat and control sequences
- • Better defensive metrics (SApM 1.10 vs 3.74)
- • Higher grappling volume (TDs and subs per 15)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Gurule's early pace and power striking
- • Large cage favors movement and range kicking game
- • Aguilar's takedown entries can be read and countered
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup is defined by clear style polarity: Aguilar's top-control and back-take game versus Gurule's volume striking and pocket power. Aguilar owns decisive edges in ground threat and damage mitigation (1.10 SApM), which compound over time as clinch cycles stack control and submission equity.
Gurule's danger window is front-loaded. If he keeps center, jabs in combination and punishes level changes, he can bank minutes and create real KO equity. However, extended grappling consistently tilts the minute-winning toward Aguilar, whose finishing mechanics are more reliable once positional control is established.
Prediction: Jesus Aguilar by Submission (Round 1–2). If early finishes don't materialize, Aguilar by Decision remains live through accumulated control and ride time.