Raquel Pennington vs Norma Dumont
UFC Fight Night Noche UFC • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Raquel Pennington
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-05 | Julianna Peña | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Mayra Bueno Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Ketlen Vieira | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-09 | Aspen Ladd | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-18 | Macy Chiasson | W | Submission (Guillotine choke) (R2, 3:07) |
Last 5 Fights - Norma Dumont
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | Irene Aldana | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Germaine de Randamie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Chelsea Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-22 | Karol Rosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-10 | Danyelle Wolf | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 76). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Raquel Pennington Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (57% vs 54%) and takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create fortress-like protection
Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five round durability in championship fights
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Dumont's knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can fight with single clean strike
Must weather Dumont's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Norma Dumont Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Pennington thrives
Pennington's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Pennington at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Pennington's methodical defensive approach and Dumont's knockout power. Having already defended the championship, Pennington enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. Her superior defensive striking (61% vs 66%) and exceptional cardio endurance proven over multiple five-round fights present challenges for Dumont who must overcome the champion's fortress-like defense.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Pennington's 42% cardio advantage (78 vs 74) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds, while Dumont's striking accuracy advantage (50% vs 49%) and superior wrestling threat (1.72 vs 0.83 TD/15min) provide alternate pathways to victory. However, Dumont's 0% submission rate limits ground finishing opportunities despite superior takedown success.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three critical phases will determine the outcome: (1) Early rounds where Dumont's technical superiority and wrestling threat pose maximum danger, (2) Mid-fight transitions where Pennington's defensive metrics and submission threat (0.62 vs 0.00 per 15min) create opportunities, and (3) Championship rounds where Pennington's proven conditioning advantage becomes decisive. Dumont's superior takedown accuracy (57% vs 28%) creates potential pathways to control, while Pennington's submission finishing ability provides constant danger on the ground.
🔮Final Prediction
While Pennington possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and her submission threat remains constant, this compelling matchup slightly favors Pennington due to her defensive metrics, superior cardio, and proven championship conditioning. The 54-46% prediction model accounts for Pennington's path to victory involving weathering the early storm and late-round specialization ultimately prevailing, likely resulting in a decision victory for the champion.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: ~35%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~35%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 44.4% | Market: 40%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Pennington's defensive metrics - Market doesn't account for Dumont's superior technical striking
- • Undervalues Dumont's wrestling advantage - Superior takedown accuracy and control not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward experience - Market overreacts to Pennington's championship experience
- • Ignores Dumont's finishing potential - Dumont's technical superiority vs Pennington's defensive approach creates value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Pennington
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Strong submission threat historically
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Dumont
Primary path to victory via technical superiority
Limited submission threat historically
Minimal knockout threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Peak Dumont danger - technical superiority and wrestling threat (25% finish probability)
- • 5-10 minutes: Pennington adjustment period - defensive metrics begin to show (20% finish probability)
- • 10-15 minutes: Critical momentum shift - cardio advantages become apparent (35% total advantage to Pennington)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Competitive rematch with multiple variables
✅Supporting Factors
- • Former champion defending status
- • Superior cardio score (78 vs 74)
- • Elite takedown defense (63% vs 72%)
- • Submission finishing threat (0.62 vs 0.00)
- • Proven 3-round experience
- • Strong defensive striking metrics
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dumont's superior technical metrics
- • Wrestling threat (1.72 vs 0.83 TD/15min)
- • Striking accuracy disadvantage
- • Recent loss affecting confidence
- • Dumont's current win streak momentum
- • Close statistical margins overall
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight showdown presents a compelling clash between Pennington's championship experience and defensive solidity versus Dumont's technical superiority and finishing power. The 54-46% prediction model slightly favors Pennington based on her proven championship conditioning and defensive metrics, though Dumont's superior striking accuracy and wrestling threat create constant upset potential.
The statistical analysis shows razor-thin margins across multiple key metrics, with Pennington's cardio advantage potentially decisive in later rounds while Dumont's technical edges could prove critical early. Both fighters possess legitimate paths to victory through their respective strengths, making this an exceptionally competitive matchup.
Final Verdict: Pennington by Decision (54% probability). The former champion's defensive metrics, proven cardio, and submission threat provide narrow advantages, though Dumont's technical superiority and current momentum make this fight closer than betting markets suggest. Expect a competitive three-round battle with the winner determined by tactical adjustments and conditioning.