Jared Gordon vs Rafa Garcia
UFC Lightweight Division • UFC Fight Night Noche UFC
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Jared Gordon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Thiago Moisés | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 3:37) |
| 2024-06-22 | Nasrat Haqparast | L | Decision (split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Mark Madsen | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 4:42) |
| 2023-04-22 | Bobby Green | NC | No Contest (accidental headbutt) (R1, 4:35) |
| 2022-12-10 | Paddy Pimblett | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rafa Garcia
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Vinc Pichel | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Grant Dawson | L | TKO (ground and pound) (R2, 1:42) |
| 2023-04-15 | Clay Guida | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-17 | Maheshate | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Drakkar Klose | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (38.0 vs 55.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Weighted combination of Takedowns per 15 minutes (TD/15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submissions per 15 minutes. Measures overall grappling effectiveness including wrestling and submission skills.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Strikes Landed/Min
Striking Accuracy
Striking Defense
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Takedowns/15min
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Submissions/15min
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jared Gordon Key Advantages
Elite volume striking (5.67 vs 4.01 SLpM) and superior accuracy (55% vs 43%) create consistent pressure and control of striking exchanges
Veteran experience (16 vs 9 UFC fights) and proven ability to weather storms in high-pressure situations gives mental edge
Superior boxing fundamentals with crisp combinations and footwork advantage in pocket exchanges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Garcia's wrestling pressure and ground control could neutralize Gordon's striking advantages
Garcia's elite submission game (8 career subs) creates constant danger on the ground
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep fight standing, use volume striking and superior boxing to control distance
Utilize superior footwork and takedown defense to keep fight in striking range
🚀 Rafa Garcia Key Advantages
Elite wrestling (3.21 vs 1.83 TD/15) and superior takedown accuracy (43% vs 32%) create dominant ground control opportunities
Dangerous submission game with 8 career submission wins (47% of victories) creates constant ground threat
Reach advantage (70" vs 68") and younger age (31 vs 37) provide physical advantages in extended exchanges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gordon's volume striking and accuracy advantage could overwhelm Garcia if fight stays on feet
Gordon's cardio advantage becomes critical in later rounds where volume striking dominates
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pressure wrestling, secure takedowns early, and work for submissions or ground control
Press the action early with wrestling pressure before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Lightweight Dynamics
This lightweight bout presents a fascinating tactical battle between Gordon's proven volume striking and Garcia's elite grappling credentials. Gordon's superior striking output (5.67 vs 4.01 SLpM) and accuracy (55% vs 43%) create consistent pressure, while Garcia's wrestling advantage (3.21 vs 1.83 TD/15) and submission threat (8 career subs) offer legitimate pathways to victory.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Gordon's 41% striking advantage and superior cardio become increasingly important in later rounds. However, Garcia's grappling advantages are substantial: 75% better takedown rate, superior accuracy (43% vs 32%), and much better takedown defense (77% vs 62%) create legitimate pathways to victory, especially if he can secure early takedowns and control the pace.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and positioning. Garcia's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first two rounds, where his wrestling pressure and reach advantage (70" vs 68") are most effective. His ability to land takedowns early could negate Gordon's striking advantages. Conversely, Gordon's path to victory involves maintaining distance, utilizing his superior volume striking to score points, and pushing the pace in later rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🔮Final Prediction
While Garcia possesses the tools to score takedowns and his grappling advantages are legitimate, Gordon's proven ability to neutralize opponent wrestling combined with superior volume striking gives him the slight edge. The 64-36 split reflects both Gordon's striking ability and the inherent uncertainty when elite grapplers face volume strikers. Expect Gordon's precision striking and takedown defense to neutralize Garcia's grappling advantages, likely resulting in a decision victory for Gordon.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 18.0% | Market: 11.1%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 12.0% | Market: 5.3%
LOW VALUE
Model: 18.0% | Market: 14.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies (Model vs Market)
- • Submissions underpriced — Combined sub paths = 18% (model) vs +800 (11.1%) for "Either Fighter by Submission".
- • Garcia sub longshot mispriced — 12% (model) vs +1800 (5.3%) creates meaningful upside if he turns wrestling pressure into control time and finishing sequences.
- • Decision outcomes overpriced — "Goes the Distance: Yes" -260 (~72.2%) vs model ~60%. "Gordon by Points" -125 (~55.6%) vs model 40% — avoid chasing decision chalk.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jared Gordon
Volume striking and cardio advantage
Accumulated damage and volume pressure
Rare but possible ground advantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Rafa Garcia
Wrestling control and ground dominance
Elite submission threat - 8 career subs
Less likely due to striking disadvantage
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rafa Garcia
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum wrestling pressure and takedown attempts
- • Rounds 1-2: Best chance to secure takedowns and control
- • Early aggression: Must press action before cardio disadvantage emerges
- • Submission hunting: Best chance for ground finishes
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jared Gordon
- • Round 2+: Volume striking and cardio advantages emerge
- • Distance control: Superior footwork and takedown defense
- • Pace control: Volume striking becomes more effective
- • Late dominance: Championship rounds where experience shows
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive lightweight bout with clear advantages
Confidence Level
Strong confidence based on statistical advantages and experience edge
Gordon Win Probability
Volume striking and experience advantages create clear pathway
Garcia Win Probability
Wrestling and submission threat provide legitimate upset potential
🏁Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive lightweight bout with clear advantages
📊Executive Summary
This lightweight bout presents a fascinating tactical battle between Gordon's proven volume striking and Garcia's elite grappling credentials. Gordon's superior striking output (5.67 vs 4.01 SLpM) and accuracy (55% vs 43%) create consistent pressure, while Garcia's wrestling advantage (3.21 vs 1.83 TD/15) and submission threat (8 career subs) offer legitimate pathways to victory.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Gordon's 41% striking advantage and superior cardio become increasingly important in later rounds. However, Garcia's grappling advantages are substantial: 75% better takedown rate, superior accuracy (43% vs 32%), and much better takedown defense (77% vs 62%) create legitimate pathways to victory, especially if he can secure early takedowns and control the pace.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and positioning. Garcia's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first two rounds, where his wrestling pressure and reach advantage (70" vs 68") are most effective. His ability to land takedowns early could negate Gordon's striking advantages. Conversely, Gordon's path to victory involves maintaining distance, utilizing his superior volume striking to score points, and pushing the pace in later rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Garcia possesses the tools to score takedowns and his grappling advantages are legitimate, Gordon's proven ability to neutralize opponent wrestling combined with superior volume striking gives him the slight edge. The 64-36 split reflects both Gordon's striking ability and the inherent uncertainty when elite grapplers face volume strikers. Expect Gordon's precision striking and takedown defense to neutralize Garcia's grappling advantages, likely resulting in a decision victory for Gordon.