Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos
Women's Strawweight • UFC Fight Night Noche UFC
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tatiana Suarez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Weili Zhang | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Jessica Andrade | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:31) |
| 2023-02-25 | Montana De La Rosa | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 2:51) |
| 2019-06-08 | Nina Nunes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2018-09-08 | Carla Esparza | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R3, 4:33) |
Last 5 Fights - Amanda Lemos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Iasmin Lucindo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Submission - Arm-triangle Choke (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-02-17 | Mackenzie Dern | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Weili Zhang | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-05 | Marina Rodriguez | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 0:54) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (67 vs 45) and Grappling Composite (54 vs 19). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Tatiana Suarez Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (57% vs 54%) and takedown defense (80% vs 59%) create fortress-like protection
Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five round durability in championship fights
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lemos's knockout power (53% of wins) and reach disadvantage could create dangerous exchanges
Must weather Lemos's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio superiority becomes decisive
🚀 Amanda Lemos Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create consistent pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Suarez thrives
Suarez's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Suarez at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
🏁Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
📊Executive Summary
This women's strawweight rematch presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Suarez's previous victory over Pereira provides both psychological and tactical advantages, particularly her superior defensive striking (57% vs 54% StrDef) and exceptional takedown defense (88%) that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis favors Suarez's defensive metrics and superior cardio. Suarez's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds where his wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Lemos's striking advantages are substantial (91.3 vs 89.7 composite), with his volume (5.26 vs 8.07 SLpM) and precision creating legitimate pathways to victory, especially if she can keep distance.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Lemos's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where her power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. Her ability to land clean shots early could negate Suarez's late-round advantages. Conversely, Suarez's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing her superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where her cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Lemos possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and her striking advantages are legitimate, Suarez's proven ability to neutralize her opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives her the edge. The 70-30 split reflects the genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with the winner likely emerging through either Lemos's explosive early power or Suarez's patient defensive discipline ultimately prevailing in the later rounds, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds (Moneyline)
🤖Analytical Model (Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 20.0% | Market: 11.1% | Edge: +8.9%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 23.0% | Market: 16.0% | Edge: +7.0%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 30.0% | Market: 22.0% | Edge: +8.0%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 55.0% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: +3.8%
SMALL VALUE
Model: 28.0% | Market: 25.0% | Edge: +3.0%
⚠️Overpriced / Fades (per model)
- • Tatiana Suarez ML (−425) — Market 80.9% vs Model 70.0% (−10.9%)
- • Suarez by Submission (+175) — Market 36.4% vs Model 24.0% (−12.4%)
- • Suarez Wins Inside Distance (+110) — Market 47.6% vs Model 32.0% (−15.6%)
- • Over 2.5 (−115) — Market 53.5% vs Model 45.0% (−8.5%)
- • Goes the Distance: Yes (+105) — Market 48.8% vs Model 45.0% (−3.8%)
- • Either Fighter by Submission (+160) — Market 38.5% vs Model 27.0% (−11.5%)
- • Amanda Lemos by Points (+600) — Market 14.3% vs Model 7.0% (−7.3%)