Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Noche UFC
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Finisher Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Diego Lopes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Alexander Volkanovski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Brian Ortega | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Dan Ige | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Sodiq Yusuff | W | TKO - Uppercuts & GNP (R1, 1:29) |
| 2023-11-11 | Pat Sabatini | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:30) |
Last 5 Fights - Jean Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Bryce Mitchell | W | Submission - Ninja Choke (R2, 3:52) |
| 2025-02-22 | Melsik Baghdasaryan | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:15) |
| 2024-07-13 | Drew Dober | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 1:28) |
| 2024-06-29 | Charles Jourdain | W | TKO - Uppercut (R2, 1:22) |
| 2024-01-13 | Westin Wilson | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (46 vs 55) and Grappling Composite (77 vs 61). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Diego Lopes Key Advantages
Elite submission threat with 2.1x more submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.9 vs 0.9)
Significant reach advantage (72" vs 69") and height edge allow control of striking distance
Proven 5-round endurance vs Volkanovski - longer fight favors his cardio advantage
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Silva's superior accuracy (52% vs 47%) and power could catch Lopes in early exchanges
Silva's elite 86% TD defense could neutralize Lopes' limited takedown attempts
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage to set up long-range entries and submission attempts
Survive early storm, push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Jean Silva Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 12 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 47%) and volume (4.87 vs 3.70 SLpM) create constant pressure
Elite 86% TDD vs 67% - will be crucial against Lopes' grappling pressure
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Lopes thrives
Lopes' submission volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Lopes at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This featherweight clash presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Lopes' elite grappling credentials and Silva's devastating knockout power. Silva enters as the betting favorite (-210) but faces a legitimate championship-level threat in Lopes, who has already challenged for the title against Alexander Volkanovski. The statistical analysis reveals contrasting paths to victory that could make this one of the most technically intriguing fights of the year.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Silva's 19.6% striking advantage (55 vs 46 composite score) versus Lopes' 26.2% grappling superiority (77 vs 61). Silva's perfect 100% UFC finish rate and 4.87 SLpM output create immediate danger, while Lopes' 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes and proven championship cardio offer late-round advantages. The key battle will be Silva's 86% takedown defense against Lopes' opportunistic grappling entries.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Silva's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (72" vs 69") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Lopes' late-round advantages. Conversely, Lopes' path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🔮Final Prediction
While Lopes possesses the tools to score a late submission or decision victory, Silva's knockout power and striking advantages create multiple pathways to victory throughout the fight. The 60-40 split in favor of Silva reflects both his devastating finishing ability and the inherent unpredictability of fights between elite grapplers and power strikers. Expect a competitive, tactical battle where the winner emerges through either Silva's precision striking or Lopes' championship-tested cardio and submission skills.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 63.0% | Market: 41.7% | Edge: +21.3%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 40.0% | Market: 31.3% | Edge: +8.7%
SECONDARY VALUE
Model: 32.0% | Market: 26.7% | Edge: +5.3%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 18.0% | Market: 14.8% | Edge: +3.2%
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 20.0% | Market: 17.4% | Edge: +2.6%
SMALL VALUE
Model: 23.0% | Market: 20.0% | Edge: +3.0%
⚠️Overpriced / Fades (per model)
- • Jean Silva ML (-260) — Market 72.2% vs Model 60.0% (−12.2%)
- • Silva by KO/TKO (−120) — Market 54.6% vs Model 35.0% (−19.6%)
- • Silva Wins Inside Distance (−145) — Market 59.2% vs Model 40.0% (−19.2%)
- • Either Fighter by KO/TKO (−190) — Market 65.5% vs Model 45.0% (−20.5%)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Lopes
Primary path to victory via grappling
Championship rounds via cardio advantage
Opportunistic counter-striking
💥Outcome Distribution - Silva
Main finishing method - one shot power
Volume striking path to victory
Limited submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Silva
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum power and striking precision advantage
- • Rounds 1-2: 80% of his finishes occur here based on power stats
- • Distance control: Must utilize striking volume and accuracy early
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling exchanges with submission threat
🎯Progressive Dominance - Lopes
- • Round 3+: Superior cardio conditioning and championship experience
- • Accumulation: Grappling pressure wears down opponent over time
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all 5 rounds
- • Late finish: Higher submission rate in championship rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages and stylistic matchup
✅Supporting Factors
- • Silva's 100% UFC finish rate and knockout power
- • Superior striking metrics (52% vs 47% accuracy)
- • Elite takedown defense (86% vs 67%)
- • Strong early-round finishing ability
- • Historical striker vs grappler patterns favor finisher
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lopes' superior grappling composite (77 vs 61)
- • Significant reach advantage (72" vs 69")
- • Proven championship cardio and 5-round experience
- • Elite submission threat (1.9 per 15 minutes)
- • Featherweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight main event presents a fascinating tactical battle between Silva's explosive finishing power and elite takedown defense against Lopes' championship-tested grappling and superior cardio conditioning. While Silva's 100% UFC finish rate and 4.87 SLpM output create immediate danger, Lopes' 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes and proven 5-round durability offer legitimate late-round threats that could determine the outcome.
The statistical analysis favors Silva's 19.6% striking advantage and superior defensive metrics, particularly his elite 86% takedown defense that should keep the fight standing. However, Lopes' 26.2% grappling superiority and championship experience create genuine pathways to victory, especially if the fight extends past the first two rounds where Silva's power and volume are most effective.
Prediction: Silva's proven ability to finish fights early, combined with superior striking metrics and elite takedown defense, gives him the edge in this competitive main event. The 60-40 split reflects both Silva's finishing ability and the inherent uncertainty when elite grapplers face powerful strikers. Expect Silva's precision striking and takedown defense to neutralize Lopes' grappling advantages, likely resulting in a knockout victory within the first three rounds to establish Silva as a legitimate featherweight contender.