Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
UFC Flyweight Championship • UFC 317
Saturday, June 29, 2024
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
29-5-0
🏆 Current Champion
Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25-11-0
🥇 #1 Contender
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexandre Pantoja
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Kai Asakura | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:05) |
| 2024-05-04 | Steve Erceg | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Brandon Moreno | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Alex Perez | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Kai Kara-France
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | Steve Erceg | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:04) |
| 2023-06-03 | Amir Albazi | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Brandon Moreno | L | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R3, 4:34) |
| 2022-03-26 | Askar Askarov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-11 | Cody Garbrandt | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:21) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (82 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Alexandre Pantoja Key Advantages
Elite submission threat with 4.5x more submission attempts per 15 minutes
Proven ability to perform under championship pressure with 4-fight win streak
2.74 takedowns per 15min vs 0.61 - massive grappling pressure advantage
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kara-France's superior reach and striking defense could force Pantoja to take risks closing distance
Kara-France's explosive power and high R1 finish rate could catch Pantoja during entry attempts
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use striking to set up takedown entries, chain attempts together to overcome strong TDD
Once on the ground, prioritize control and submission attempts over ground strikes
🚀 Kai Kara-France Key Advantages
Elite 65% striking defense vs 50% - excellent defensive awareness
Outstanding 88% TDD vs 68% - will be crucial against Pantoja's pressure
2" reach advantage with higher striking output - can control distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges could lead to submission vulnerability against Pantoja's BJJ
Getting caught in the clinch could allow Pantoja to work his superior wrestling game
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Pantoja at range, punish entry attempts with strikes
Focus on maintaining vertical base, use scrambles to create separation rather than engage
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This championship clash features the quintessential grappler vs striker dynamic that has defined many of the sport's greatest title fights. Pantoja, as the defending champion, brings the psychological advantage of having already proven himself on the biggest stage, evidenced by his current 4-fight win streak and ability to finish fights across multiple rounds. His championship experience includes victories over former champions and top contenders, demonstrating his ability to elevate his game when it matters most.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Pantoja's 26.2% grappling advantage is primarily driven by his elite submission rate (0.89 attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.00) and superior takedown volume (2.74 vs 0.61 per 15 minutes). However, Kara-France's striking metrics tell a compelling counter-narrative: his 30% superior striking defense (65% vs 50%) and exceptional 88% takedown defense create a defensive fortress that could neutralize Pantoja's primary weapons.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Kara-France's reach advantage (69" vs 67") and superior striking output could establish early dominance; the grappling transitions where Pantoja's takedown pressure meets Kara-France's elite 88% defense; and the championship rounds where Pantoja's superior cardio score (82 vs 79) and proven championship endurance could become decisive factors. Kara-France's 9 first-round finishes suggest early aggression, while Pantoja's submission threat remains constant throughout all five rounds.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Pantoja's path to victory involves successfully implementing his pressure wrestling game, weathering Kara-France's early striking flurries, and dragging the fight to the later rounds where his championship experience and submission threats become increasingly dangerous. His 66.7% finish rate suggests he rarely needs the scorecards when executing his game plan effectively.
Conversely, Kara-France must leverage his physical advantages early and often. His superior reach, striking defense, and takedown defense create a perfect storm for keeping the fight standing. His 60% finish rate and tendency to end fights in Round 1 (9 finishes) or Round 3 (8 finishes) suggests he either finishes early or finds his rhythm in the later rounds. The key for Kara-France is avoiding extended ground exchanges where Pantoja's submission skills become paramount.
🏁Final Prediction
While Kara-France possesses the tools to win this fight and his striking advantages are legitimate, Pantoja's championship pedigree, grappling dominance, and proven ability to find ways to win in hostile environments give him the slight edge. The 60-40 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the championship variables at play. Expect a competitive, technical battle that showcases the very best of both the striking and grappling arts, with the winner likely emerging in the championship rounds through either Pantoja's submission skills or Kara-France's defensive counter-striking game.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 32.1%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: ~16.7%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.3% | Market: 48.8%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Pantoja's championship status - Market doesn't fully consider Kara-France's defensive improvements
- • Undervalues Kara-France's striking advantages - Superior striking defense and reach not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward grappling - Market overreacts to Pantoja's submission finishes
- • Ignores takedown defense statistics - Kara-France's 88% TDD vs Pantoja's 47% TDA creates value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Pantoja
41.7% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
33.3% of his wins | Championship rounds
25% of his wins | Less common but possible
💥Outcome Distribution - Kara-France
62.5% of his wins | Main finishing method
37.5% of his wins | Volume striking path
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kara-France
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum striking advantage and TDD effectiveness
- • Rounds 1-2: 60% of his finishes occur here (9 R1 + 6 R2)
- • Distance control: Must utilize reach and defensive striking early
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling exchanges
🎯Progressive Dominance - Pantoja
- • Round 3+: Championship experience and cardio advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: Takedown pressure wears down TDD over time
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all rounds
- • Late finish: Higher submission rate in championship rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Pantoja's championship experience
- • Superior grappling credentials
- • Proven finishing ability
- • Strong cardio for 5 rounds
- • Historical grappler vs striker patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Kara-France's 88% takedown defense
- • Superior striking defense metrics
- • Physical reach advantage
- • Dangerous early in fights
- • Flyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight championship bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Pantoja's elite grappling and championship experience against Kara-France's superior striking metrics and physical advantages. While Pantoja's 26.2% grappling advantage and proven finishing ability (0.89 sub attempts per 15 minutes) create clear paths to victory, Kara-France's 88% takedown defense and 30% superior striking defense present significant obstacles.
The betting market appears to overvalue Pantoja's championship status while underestimating Kara-France's defensive improvements and physical advantages. Our model suggests the market has miscalculated the probability distribution, creating exceptional value in Kara-France as a +212 underdog when our model projects closer to +150.
Prediction: This fight likely comes down to whether Kara-France can maintain distance and utilize his defensive advantages for the full 25 minutes, or if Pantoja's relentless pressure and championship experience eventually break through. The narrow 60-40 edge reflects the genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with the winner likely emerging through either Kara-France's defensive striking game or Pantoja's late-round submission threats.