Renato Moicano vs Beneil Dariush
Lightweight Division • UFC 317
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Renato Moicano
"Money"
20-6-1
🥇 Top Contender
Physical Comparison
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Beneil Dariush
"Benny"
22-6-1
🌟 Veteran Contender
Physical Comparison
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Renato Moicano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission (R1, 4:05) |
| 2024-09-28 | Benoit Saint Denis | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Jalin Turner | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:11) |
| 2024-02-03 | Drew Dober | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Brad Riddell | W | Submission (R1, 3:20) |
Last 5 Fights - Beneil Dariush
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-02 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:04) |
| 2023-06-10 | Charles Oliveira | L | KO/TKO (R1, 4:10) |
| 2022-10-22 | Mateusz Gamrot | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-05-15 | Tony Ferguson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-02-06 | Diego Ferreira | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 85). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💪 Renato Moicano Key Advantages
Superior striking output at 4.36 per minute vs 3.78, with excellent pressure fighting
Better striking defense at 61% vs 58%, limiting damage taken
Elite submission game with 6 submission wins, dangerous from any position on the ground
Height and leg reach advantages provide better range control and kicking opportunities
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Getting dominated in the clinch against the cage by Dariush's superior wrestling control
Facing sustained wrestling pressure and being controlled on the ground without submission opportunities
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize range and movement to avoid clinch situations, maintain distance control
Apply constant pressure with volume striking, look for submission opportunities in scrambles
💪 Beneil Dariush Key Advantages
Exceptional 81% takedown defense vs 71%, keeping fights standing
Higher submission rate at 0.88 per 15min vs 0.55, dangerous ground game
More UFC experience (23 vs 18 fights) and lower damage absorption rate
Superior grappling composite score at 85 vs 75
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Getting overwhelmed by Moicano's superior striking volume and constant pressure
Fighting at range against the taller opponent with superior striking defense
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance and work in the clinch, look for takedown opportunities in scrambles
Apply pressure and wear down Moicano, capitalize on submission openings
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model analyzing fighting styles, recent form, and statistical advantages
45%
Renato Moicano Win Probability
Strong striking output and submission skills provide multiple paths to victory
55%
Beneil Dariush Win Probability
Experience, grappling edge, and defensive skills give him the slight advantage
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Lightweight Contender Dynamics
This lightweight contender bout represents a fascinating clash between two elite grapplers with contrasting approaches. Moicano brings the pure Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree with exceptional submission skills, while Dariush counters with veteran MMA experience and well-rounded pressure tactics. Both fighters are positioned as legitimate title contenders, making this a crucial matchup for divisional rankings and future title shots.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Moicano's striking volume advantage (+15.3% higher output) and superior defensive positioning (61% vs 58% striking defense). However, Dariush possesses significant advantages in grappling credentials (85 vs 75 composite score) and takedown defense (81% vs 71%). The technical scores are remarkably close (78.5 vs 80), indicating an evenly matched contest where small margins will determine the outcome.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome likely depends on distance management and grappling exchanges. Moicano's height advantage and striking volume will be tested against Dariush's pressure tactics and superior takedown defense. The clinch becomes critical - Moicano needs to avoid prolonged wrestling exchanges, while Dariush must capitalize on close-quarters opportunities to showcase his 60% higher submission rate and veteran grappling experience.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Moicano's path to victory involves utilizing his striking volume to control distance, defending takedowns effectively, and potentially finding submission opportunities in scrambles. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background provides dangerous submission threats when the fight hits the ground on his terms.
Dariush must implement consistent pressure to close distance, mix striking with takedown threats, and leverage his superior grappling experience in extended ground exchanges. His veteran presence and ability to control pace become more pronounced in longer fights, particularly with his superior takedown defense and cardio advantages.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: 50.0%
GOOD VALUE
Market: +800 | Model: ~+400
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56.5% | Market: 54.5%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Dariush's experience - Market doesn't fully consider his veteran edge
- • Overvalues Moicano's striking - Superior striking volume doesn't account for Dariush's defense
- • Submission market inefficiency - Dariush's submission threat underpriced
- • Round props misaligned - Model suggests higher probability of going distance
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🇧🇷Outcome Distribution - Moicano
50% of his wins | BJJ specialist ground game
33.3% of his wins | Superior striking volume
16.7% of his wins | Limited knockout power
🇮🇷Outcome Distribution - Dariush
50% of his wins | Grinding pressure style
36.4% of his wins | Elite submission game
13.6% of his wins | Occasional knockout power
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯Moicano's Window - Early Rounds
- • Rounds 1-2: Establish striking range and volume
- • Distance control: Use height and reach advantages
- • Defensive striking: Avoid clinch and takedown attempts
- • Submission threats: Capitalize on any scrambles
⚡Dariush's Path - Late Dominance
- • Round 3+: Experience and cardio advantage
- • Pressure tactics: Close distance and control pace
- • Grappling exchanges: Superior takedown defense and control
- • Submission opportunities: Late round submission threats
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to close statistical margins
✅Supporting Factors
- • Dariush's experience advantage (23 vs 18 UFC fights)
- • Superior grappling composite (85 vs 75)
- • Better takedown defense (81% vs 71%)
- • Lower damage absorption rate
- • Proven veteran presence in big fights
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Moicano's superior striking volume (+15.3%)
- • Recent losses for Dariush (2 straight)
- • Moicano's momentum and form
- • Small statistical margins overall
- • Both fighters' submission threats
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight contender bout represents one of the most evenly matched fights on statistical analysis. While Moicano brings superior striking volume and defensive positioning, Dariush counters with veteran experience, superior grappling credentials, and better takedown defense.
The betting market appears relatively efficient, with our model providing only slight value on Dariush at even money (+100). The key factors favoring Dariush include his 23 UFC fights of experience compared to Moicano's 18, his superior grappling composite score, and his historically better performance under pressure.
Prediction: Dariush's veteran experience and superior grappling skills should prove decisive in the later rounds of this technical battle. While Moicano presents early striking threats, Dariush's ability to control pace and implement his grappling game gives him the edge in a fight that likely goes the full distance.