Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
UFC Lightweight Championship Eliminator • UFC 317
Saturday, June 15, 2024
Undefeated Prospect
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Former Champion
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ilia Topuria
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Max Holloway | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:34) |
| 2024-02-17 | Alexander Volkanovski | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:32) |
| 2023-06-24 | Josh Emmett | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-10 | Bryce Mitchell | W | Submission (R2, 3:10) |
| 2022-03-19 | Jai Herbert | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:07) |
Last 5 Fights - Charles Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Michael Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Beneil Dariush | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:10) |
| 2022-10-22 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission (R2, 3:16) |
| 2022-05-07 | Justin Gaethje | W | Submission (R1, 3:22) |
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Ilia Topuria Key Advantages
4.69 vs 3.40 significant strikes per minute with devastating finishing power, recently KO'd Max Holloway and Volkanovski
93% takedown defense vs 56% - crucial to neutralize Oliveira's world-class grappling game
16-0 record with 100% win rate and 71.4% finish rate - incredible confidence and championship mentality
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Oliveira's 2.66 submission attempts per 15min create constant danger if fight hits the mat
5-inch reach disadvantage could allow Oliveira to control distance and initiate clinch work
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize superior striking output while maintaining distance and stuffing takedown attempts
Look for early knockout opportunities to avoid later rounds where Oliveira's experience shows
🚀 Charles Oliveira Key Advantages
2.66 vs 1.10 submission attempts per 15min - most submissions in UFC history (21 wins)
34 UFC fights vs 7 - former lightweight champion with proven championship round conditioning
5" reach and 3" height advantage provide significant leverage for striking and grappling control
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Topuria's superior striking output and power could overwhelm in prolonged standup battles
Topuria's 93% TDD could neutralize grappling advantages and force a striking contest
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage to control distance and create takedown opportunities through pressure
Extend fight to later rounds where experience and conditioning become decisive factors
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Undefeated vs Veteran Dynamics
This fight represents the classic clash between undefeated rising star and proven veteran champion. Topuria's perfect 16-0 record brings incredible momentum and confidence, having recently defeated elite featherweights like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Oliveira's championship experience across 34 UFC fights provides invaluable octagon IQ and proven ability to perform under ultimate pressure. The 7-year age gap favors Topuria's explosiveness and recovery, while Oliveira's veteran savvy in championship rounds becomes crucial if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating striker vs. grappler dynamic. Topuria's striking advantages are significant: 37.9% higher output (4.69 vs 3.40 SLpM), superior accuracy (47% vs 55% but higher volume), and better striking defense (64% vs 49%). However, Oliveira's grappling superiority is overwhelming with 141% more submission attempts (2.66 vs 1.10 per 15min) and the most submission wins in UFC history. The key battleground becomes Topuria's elite 93% takedown defense against Oliveira's relentless pressure and takedown attempts.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three critical phases will determine the outcome: (1) Early rounds where Topuria's explosive power and fresh legs pose maximum threat, (2) Takedown battles where Oliveira's pressure meets Topuria's defensive wrestling, and (3) Championship rounds where Oliveira's proven conditioning and late-round finishing ability could overwhelm a fighter with limited 5-round experience. Oliveira's 5-inch reach advantage and superior height create opportunities for clinch work and takedown setups, while Topuria must maintain distance to maximize his striking advantages.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Topuria's path to victory involves utilizing his superior striking output and elite takedown defense to keep the fight standing while hunting for the knockout that has made him famous. His recent performances against elite competition suggest he can handle the pressure of facing a former champion. Early aggression and maintaining distance will be crucial to avoid Oliveira's grappling traps.
Conversely, Oliveira must leverage his physical advantages and championship experience to create grappling opportunities. His proven ability to finish fights in championship rounds becomes paramount if he can survive the early storm and drag Topuria into deep waters where experience and conditioning matter most. The Brazilian's submission threat remains constant throughout all five rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
This compelling matchup (58-42% prediction model) slightly favors Topuria due to his superior striking metrics, elite takedown defense, and undefeated momentum. His recent knockout victories over elite competition demonstrate his ability to perform under pressure. However, Oliveira's championship experience, submission mastery, and proven ability to find ways to win create constant danger. The fight likely plays out as a high-level chess match with Topuria looking for early finishes while Oliveira seeks to extend the fight and create grappling opportunities.Prediction: Topuria by TKO in Round 2, but Oliveira's submission threat and championship experience make this fight far closer than the odds suggest.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive market analysis for this championship eliminator
📊Market Odds
Additional Markets
🤖Analytical Model
Model Totals
💎Value Opportunities
💰Strong Value Bets
⚠️Market Overvaluation
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Detailed outcome modeling based on fighter analytics
🏆Outcome Distribution - Topuria
Superior power + Elite finishing ability
Neutralizes grappling with TDD
Limited submission threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Oliveira
Elite submission skills if fight hits mat
Counter-striking opportunities
Championship rounds experience
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Peak Topuria danger - explosive striking and TDD testing (25% finish probability)
- • 5-10 minutes: Oliveira adjustment period - seeking grappling entries (20% finish probability)
- • 10-15 minutes: Critical momentum shift potential - experience begins to show (20% finish probability)
- • 15-25 minutes: Championship rounds favor Oliveira's proven conditioning and late finishes (35% total)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
High confidence with significant skill vs experience variables
✅Supporting Factors
- • Undefeated 16-0 record with elite finishes
- • Superior striking output (38% advantage)
- • Elite 93% takedown defense
- • Recent victories over championship-level opponents
- • Prime age and momentum
- • Strong value on Oliveira (+350 vs +255 fair)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oliveira's championship experience (34 UFC fights)
- • Elite submission threat (2.66 per 15min)
- • Physical disadvantages (5" reach, 3" height)
- • Moving up in weight class
- • Limited 5-round experience
- • Oliveira's proven late-round finishing ability
🏁Executive Summary
This championship eliminator presents a fascinating clash of styles: undefeated rising star versus proven championship veteran. Topuria's perfect record, superior striking metrics, and elite takedown defense create significant advantages, while Oliveira's submission mastery and championship experience provide constant danger throughout all five rounds.
The betting market appears to slightly overvalue Topuria's chances at -500, creating value on Oliveira at +350. The model suggests this fight is closer to -345/+255, with Oliveira's 28% win probability being undervalued by the market. Additionally, the Under 1.5 rounds at +110 presents value given both fighters' finishing abilities.
Final Verdict: Topuria by TKO in Round 2 (45% probability via finish). The Georgian's explosive early rounds and takedown defense should neutralize Oliveira's primary weapons. However, if Oliveira can survive the early storm and drag this into championship rounds, his experience and submission threat make him dangerous throughout. Value exists on Oliveira's victory and fight finishing early.