JJ Aldrich vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Saturday, April 11, 2026 • Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg • 30ft Octagon
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JJ Aldrich
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (55.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (35.0 vs 45.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Key Matchup Insights
Volume vs Accuracy
Aldrich lands more strikes per minute (3.96 vs 3.65) but Horth is significantly more accurate (55% vs 47%). This creates an interesting dynamic where Aldrich pressures with volume while Horth picks her shots.
Defensive Edge
Horth holds advantages in both striking defense (67% vs 61%) and takedown defense (79% vs 68%). She absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.20 vs 4.32), suggesting superior evasiveness.
Finishing Ability
Horth has a higher UFC finish rate (25% vs 10%) with 1 TKO in the UFC. Aldrich predominantly wins by decision (9 of 10 UFC wins), making her path to victory a grinding 3-round battle.
Experience Factor
Aldrich brings 16 UFC fights of experience compared to Horth's 6. However, Horth is on a 2-fight win streak with momentum on her side, while Aldrich has gone 3-3 in her last 6 UFC appearances.
Takedown Dynamics
While neither fighter is a prolific wrestler, Horth's 79% takedown defense vs Aldrich's 68% creates a significant gap. Aldrich's low takedown accuracy (27%) means grappling won't be a viable path to victory, forcing her to win on the feet.
Physical Advantages
Horth holds a 2-inch height advantage (5'7" vs 5'5") and 5-inch reach advantage (72.5" vs 67.5"). Combined with her superior striking accuracy, these physical dimensions allow her to control distance and land clean counters from range.
Recent Form
Horth enters on a 2-fight win streak including her TKO of Bledá, while Aldrich is 3-3 in her last 6 UFC fights with all wins by decision. Momentum and finishing confidence favor Horth, who has shown improving striking power and composure.
Fight Analysis Breakdown
JJ Aldrich Key Advantages
Aldrich's southpaw volume output (3.96 SLpM) creates constant pressure. Her 16 UFC fights of experience allow her to control pace and grind through three-round decisions. She has won 11 of 14 fights by decision, proving her ability to accumulate scoring minutes.
Aldrich's 16 UFC fights vs Horth's 6 creates a significant experience gap. She has fought in diverse situations and can make tactical adjustments mid-fight, which becomes critical in close rounds.
Aldrich's southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox fighters like Horth. The open-stance matchup favors Aldrich's inside leg kicks and left straight counters, while disrupting Horth's distance management and rhythm.
Aldrich has proven her championship-level cardio by maintaining consistent output across all three rounds in 11 UFC decision wins. Her ability to push a relentless pace without fatigue can wear down opponents mentally and physically, especially those less experienced in grueling battles.
Unfavorable Scenarios
Horth's finishing power (1 TKO win in UFC vs Bledá) is dangerous. If Aldrich gets caught clean on the feet, Horth has the power to end the fight — as she demonstrated with her recent TKO of Tereza Bledá.
Aldrich absorbs 4.32 strikes per minute with only 61% striking defense. Against Horth's 55% accuracy, she could take significant damage over three rounds.
Likely Gameplan
Aldrich should pressure forward with volume combinations, use her southpaw angles to disrupt Horth's counter-striking rhythm, and initiate clinch work to neutralize Horth's accuracy advantage at range.
Maintain relentless forward pressure with 1-2-3 combinations to force Horth into defensive mode. Use feints and constant movement to disrupt her counter-striking reads. Target the body early to slow Horth's movement and drain her gas tank for later rounds.
Exploit open-stance dynamics with inside leg kicks to Horth's lead leg and left straights down the pipe. Circle to Horth's power side to neutralize her right hand while setting up left hooks. Use the southpaw stance to create awkward angles that disrupt her defensive timing.
Jamey-Lyn Horth Key Advantages
Horth's 55% striking accuracy vs Aldrich's 47% means she lands cleaner, more impactful shots. Combined with 67% striking defense and absorbing only 3.20 strikes per minute, Horth is far more efficient in exchanges.
With 1 TKO in 4 UFC wins (25% UFC finish rate), Horth has shown finishing ability. Her recent TKO of Tereza Bledá demonstrates improved striking power. Against Aldrich's 61% striking defense and high absorption rate, Horth could find the finish.
Horth's size advantages (5'7" vs 5'5", 72.5" reach vs 67.5") combined with superior accuracy create ideal counter-striking conditions. She can maintain distance, force Aldrich to close the gap, then punish entries with clean power shots and head kicks.
Horth's recent form reflects elite-level performance against quality competition. Her 2-fight win streak with wins over Demopoulos and Bledá builds confidence and momentum, while Aldrich enters off a mixed 3-3 stretch in her last 6 UFC bouts showing inconsistency.
Unfavorable Scenarios
Aldrich's relentless volume (3.96 SLpM) could overwhelm Horth's counter-striking game. If Horth can't find clean counters against southpaw pressure, the fight becomes a grinding decision where Aldrich's experience prevails.
With only 6 UFC fights and losses to Dudakova and Cortez (both decisions), Horth hasn't been tested in close, gritty wars. Aldrich's experience in those situations could prove decisive.
Likely Gameplan
Horth should maintain range, use her 2" height advantage and accurate counter-striking to punish Aldrich's volume entries. Look for head kicks and clean combinations when Aldrich overcommits, then swarm for the finish.
Use jab and teep kicks to maintain 5-inch reach advantage, forcing Aldrich to close distance repeatedly. Circle away from Aldrich's power left hand while setting up right hand counters. When Aldrich enters the pocket, pivot out with combinations rather than engaging in phone booth exchanges.
After landing clean counters that hurt Aldrich (watch for wobbles or defensive shell), transition from counter-mode to controlled aggression. Use measured combinations with cage positioning to cut off exits, then look for the finish with power punches. Avoid reckless brawling — maintain technical discipline even when pursuing the stoppage.
Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Detailed Analysis Summary
Striking Dynamic
Aldrich's southpaw volume (3.96 SLpM) vs Horth's accuracy (55%) creates a clear stylistic clash. Horth absorbs far fewer strikes (3.20 vs 4.32 SLpM absorbed) while landing a higher percentage. Over three rounds, Horth's efficiency should translate to cleaner, more damaging strikes.
Defensive Disparity
Horth's defensive edge is significant: 67% vs 61% striking defense, 79% vs 68% takedown defense. This means Aldrich will struggle to land clean shots or secure takedowns, limiting her paths to victory significantly.
Grappling Neutralization
With Horth's 79% takedown defense significantly outpacing Aldrich's 27% takedown accuracy, wrestling exchanges will favor Horth decisively. Aldrich attempts only 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, making grappling an unlikely path to victory. Both fighters have minimal submission threats (0.0 SubPer15), ensuring this fight stays primarily on the feet where Horth's striking advantages compound.
Momentum & Psychology
Horth enters with significant psychological advantages: 2-fight win streak including a finish, and improvement trajectory with her recent TKO. Aldrich's 3-3 record in her last 6 UFC fights shows inconsistency, while all three wins came by decision — suggesting difficulty imposing her will. Horth's confidence from recent finishing success could prove decisive in close exchanges.
Physical & Technical Edge
The combination of Horth's physical advantages (2" height, 5" reach) with superior technical metrics (55% vs 47% accuracy, 67% vs 61% defense, 3.20 vs 4.32 SLpM absorbed) creates a compounding effect. She can control distance, force Aldrich into the pocket, then counter with power shots. Aldrich must close the distance to be effective, but Horth's longer frame and better defense make penetrating range dangerous.
Final Prediction
Most likely outcome is Horth by Decision (30%) through superior accuracy and defensive work outscoring Aldrich's volume. Horth by KO/TKO (18%) via clean counter-striking represents her secondary path. Aldrich's best chance is grinding out a decision (25%) through relentless pressure and veteran fight IQ. However, the statistical, physical, and momentum advantages all point to Horth as the rightful favorite with a 58% overall win probability.
Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
Market Odds
Analytical Model
Value Opportunities
BEST VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Fair: -122
Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
Outcome Distribution - JJ Aldrich
Volume pressure and veteran scoring through three rounds
Southpaw power shots accumulate damage over time
Unlikely path given 0.0 SubPer15
Outcome Distribution - Jamey-Lyn Horth
Superior accuracy and defense outscoring Aldrich's volume
Clean counter-striking or head kick finish
2 career submissions show finishing versatility
Fight Timeline Analysis
Round-by-Round Prediction
Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge to Horth via efficiency, tempered by Aldrich's experience and competitive history
Supporting Factors
- Horth's superior striking accuracy (55% vs 47%)
- Significant defensive edge in both striking and takedowns
- Higher UFC finish rate (25%) and recent knockout win
- Horth absorbs far fewer strikes per minute
Risk Factors
- Aldrich's 16-fight UFC experience vs Horth's 6
- Aldrich's southpaw stance creates awkward angles
- Horth's two UFC losses came by decision in close fights
- Women's flyweight bouts tend toward close decisions
Executive Summary
Jamey-Lyn Horth's statistical profile gives her a meaningful edge in this Women's Flyweight bout. Her 55% striking accuracy is significantly higher than Aldrich's 47%, and her defensive metrics (67% StrDef, 79% TDDef, 3.20 absorbed per min) outclass Aldrich's across the board (61%, 68%, 4.32). Horth's 66.7% finish rate with 4 KO/TKOs suggests she has the power to end fights, while Aldrich's 21.4% finish rate makes her reliant on decision wins.
Prediction: Horth by Decision is the most likely single outcome (30%), with Horth by KO/TKO (18%) as her secondary path. Aldrich's best chance is a grinding decision (25%) through relentless southpaw volume and veteran fight IQ. The fight likely goes to the scorecards (55%) given the three-round format and both fighters' recent tendency toward full-length bouts.