Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Saturday, April 11, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
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Kyler Phillips
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Charles Jourdain
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kyler Phillips
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | Vinicius Oliveira | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Rob Font | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Pedro Munhoz | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Raoni Barcelos | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Marcelo Rojo | W | Submission (Triangle Armbar) (R3, 1:48) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Charles Jourdain
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Davey Grant | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R1, 2:45) |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Victor Henry | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R2, 3:18) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Jean Silva | L | TKO (Uppercut) (R2, 1:22) |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Sean Woodson | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Ricardo Ramos | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R1, 3:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (68.0 vs 35.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kyler Phillips Key Advantages
Phillips averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Jourdain's meager 0.34—a 6.8x differential that represents the defining battleground of this fight. Against one of the poorest takedown defenders in the division, Phillips will hit takedowns at an even higher rate. Phillips' 45% takedown accuracy against Jourdain's 47% takedown defense creates a probabilistic framework where approximately 1 in 2 takedown attempts succeeds. With Phillips attempting 2-3 takedowns per round (based on TD15), this translates to 1-2 successful takedowns every 5 minutes. Phillips' wrestling arsenal includes single legs, double legs, clinch takedowns, and body lock throws—he can chain entries together and vary his approach to prevent Jourdain from developing defensive counters. Jourdain's historically poor takedown defense (across 16 UFC fights) is not a technical anomaly but a systematic weakness that Phillips is built to exploit. This isn't just a statistical advantage but a stylistic mismatch.
Despite being 1 inch shorter, Phillips holds a significant 3-inch reach advantage (72" vs 69"). This unusual physical dynamic—shorter but with superior reach—suggests Phillips has exceptional arm length, likely from his wrestling background where longer limbs provide positional control advantages. His 60% striking defense combined with longer arms creates effective defensive framing that prevents Jourdain from landing his power shots cleanly. The 30-foot cage amplifies reach advantage significantly—Phillips can jab and move backwards, forcing Jourdain to close 3 inches of extra distance just to engage. This extended range allows Phillips to set up takedowns with the jab, measure Jourdain from distance, and force him to overcommit on entries— creating opportunities for counters and clinch transitions. In clinch ranges, Phillips' longer reach allows him to establish underhooks more easily and control Jourdain's head position for takedown setup. It's a subtle but decisive advantage in distance fighting.
Phillips' 76% takedown defense vs Jourdain's 47% represents a massive 29-point gap that creates an asymmetry favoring Phillips dramatically. While Jourdain rarely shoots (0.34 TD15), his dangerous guillotine attempts often come from scrambles or desperation entries when he's being controlled. Phillips' elite defensive wrestling (76% TD Def) means he can escape bottom position efficiently, limiting submission exposure time. His 60% striking defense and lower absorption rate (3.83 SApM vs 4.27) compound this advantage—Phillips takes less damage per exchange while maintaining consistent output across all three rounds. Over 15 minutes, this means Phillips suffers significantly less cumulative damage (60-65 total strikes absorbed vs Jourdain's 65-70+), which impacts decision scoring and mental fatigue. Phillips can execute his defensive gameplan with confidence, knowing his defensive metrics across all domains (striking, wrestling, and submission threat) are superior.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Jourdain's guillotine choke is his signature weapon—he's won his last 3 fights by guillotine (Grant, Henry, Ramos), making him one of the most dangerous guillotine artists in the UFC. Phillips' wrestling-heavy approach requires level changes that inherently expose the neck. Jourdain's 18% clinch striking rate shows he's comfortable in close quarters, and his 0.59 submissions per 15 minutes suggests constant submission threat. If Phillips ducks under carelessly or shoots with poor head position, Jourdain can snap on the guillotine and end the fight instantly—as he's demonstrated repeatedly.
Jourdain's 5.43 SLpM output and 49% striking accuracy give him a clear edge in sustained striking exchanges. His 0.51 knockdowns per fight average is significantly higher than Phillips' 0.37, and Jourdain's power shots carry genuine fight-ending potential—as demonstrated by his 8 career KO/TKO wins. If Phillips gets drawn into firefights instead of implementing his wrestling gameplan, Jourdain's superior power and volume can overwhelm him. Phillips' 43% striking accuracy suggests he's less efficient in pure striking exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Phillips must prioritize shot selection that minimizes neck exposure. Body-lock takedowns (where Phillips drives through Jourdain's torso from behind) keep his head completely safe. Outside singles (attacking the far leg from an outside angle) keep Phillips' head on the exterior of Jourdain's hips. Ankle picks from distance, knee taps, and trips from the clinch minimize neck exposure while accessing the ground. Phillips' 2.31 TD15 rate provides enough volume (2-3 attempts per round) to keep Jourdain defensive without over-committing. Shot selection variation is critical—if Phillips becomes predictable, Jourdain's guillotine timing improves. Phillips' 72-inch reach allows him to use the jab to set up entries, measuring Jourdain and closing distance before shooting. This two-phase attack (jab-then-shoot or jab-then-clinch) gives Jourdain limited time to counter-time a guillotine. Jourdain's 47% takedown defense suggests his guillotine works best against panicked, desperate entries—Phillips must shoot with controlled desperation, maintaining composure even when being countered.
Once Phillips secures top position, his priority is heavy top pressure with ground-and-pound, avoiding scrambles where submissions happen. His 15% ground striking rate (0.76 per fight based on 5.07 overall SLpM) shows he's comfortable working from top position, but more importantly, he can control Jourdain without needing aggressive scrambling. By maintaining heavy hips, Phillips' weight pins Jourdain to the mat, limiting scramble distance and escape angles. Wrist control and collar tie allow Phillips to control Jourdain's posture while striking—short elbows and ground-and-pound accumulate significant damage. Judges reward consistent top control and damage over submission attempts. Phillips' cardio advantage (12:20 avg duration vs 11:51) ensures he can sustain heavy pressure throughout all three rounds without gassing. By R3, Jourdain will have accumulated 6-9 minutes of grinding control time that decisively wins on scorecards (10-9 rounds for Phillips). This methodical approach—avoid scrambles, maintain position, grind damage— is the blueprint for beating Jourdain, a striker who needs chaos and open space to thrive.
🚀 Charles Jourdain Key Advantages
Jourdain has won his last 3 fights by guillotine choke—an extraordinary streak that makes him one of the most dangerous submission artists in the bantamweight division. His 0.59 submissions per 15 minutes and 6 career submission wins (38% of total) demonstrate this is not luck but elite technique. Against a wrestler like Phillips who will inevitably shoot for takedowns, Jourdain's guillotine becomes a fight-defining counter-weapon. His ability to snap on the choke during level changes has ended fights against Victor Henry and Davey Grant in devastating fashion, and Phillips' wrestling-heavy approach feeds directly into this trap.
Jourdain's 5.43 SLpM output with 49% accuracy outpaces Phillips' 5.04 SLpM at just 43% accuracy. This 6-point accuracy gap means Jourdain lands more efficiently while throwing at higher volume—a dangerous combination for Phillips to absorb over three rounds. His 0.51 knockdowns per fight demonstrate genuine fight-ending power, and his diverse attack distribution (53% head, 28% body, 19% legs) makes him hard to defend against. Switch-stance ability allows Jourdain to attack from both orthodox and southpaw, creating unpredictable angles that disrupt Phillips' defensive rhythm. His 88% career finish rate (with 8 KO/TKOs and 6 submissions) means when Jourdain lands cleanly, he has elite finishing instinct. Against a wrestler like Phillips, Jourdain's early-round finishes (7 R1, 5 R2 victories) demonstrate the power of his opening combinations. His 4 Performance of the Night bonuses confirm this is not volume without precision—Jourdain combines action with fight-ending capability.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Jourdain's 47% takedown defense is one of the worst among ranked bantamweights, and against a wrestler averaging 2.31 TD15, he faces a real risk of being controlled on the mat for extended periods. The asymmetry is stark: Phillips' 76% takedown defense vs Jourdain's 47% creates a 29-point gap that prevents effective scrambling. Phillips can continuously press for takedowns knowing his base is significantly harder to move. Once Phillips establishes top position, his 15% ground striking rate and heavy hip pressure allow him to work ground-and-pound without fear of reversal. Jourdain's only 2 decision wins in 16 career victories demonstrate he's a finisher who struggles when offense is neutralized. In a grinding match, his advantages evaporate. The longer he's controlled on the mat, the more ground he loses on the scorecards, and his submission timing becomes the only viable escape route—which Phillips will defend against with careful positioning.
Jourdain's 69-inch reach is 3 inches shorter than Phillips', which creates difficulties when the fight stays at range. Phillips can jab and control distance without Jourdain being able to return fire effectively. The 30-foot cage provides Phillips ample room to circle and use his reach to manage distance and set up takedown entries. Jourdain needs to close distance to be effective, but this involves crossing the danger zone where Phillips' longer arms can intercept and redirect him into clinch situations that favor the wrestler.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jourdain's optimal strategy is to maintain high striking volume and body work to force Phillips into reactive takedown attempts. When Phillips shoots, Jourdain should welcome the neck exposure and look to snap on his signature guillotine choke. His clinch work (18% of strikes from clinch) positions him well to catch underhooks and transition to front headlocks. The Canadian's 3-fight guillotine streak demonstrates he's refined this weapon to an elite level, and Phillips' wrestling-first approach provides exactly the type of entries Jourdain thrives against.
When the fight stays standing, Jourdain should press forward with high-volume combinations targeting head and body. His 5.43 SLpM with 49% accuracy can overwhelm Phillips' 43% accuracy in firefights. The key is to diversify targets (53% head, 28% body, 19% legs) to prevent Phillips from establishing a defensive rhythm. Early damage is critical—Jourdain finishes most of his wins in R1 (7) and R2 (5), and his 0.51 KD rate suggests he can create fight-ending moments when he connects cleanly. An early knockdown or significant damage could force Phillips to abandon his wrestling gameplan entirely.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a dual-edged dynamic in this matchup. The larger cage initially benefits Phillips' reach advantage (72" vs 69"), allowing him to jab from distance and set up takedown entries with more runway. However, Jourdain's switch-stance movement and high output (5.43 SLpM) allow him to cut angles and close distance effectively in the larger space. The key dynamic is whether Phillips can use the extra space to implement his wrestling without Jourdain being able to time counter-guillotines on his entries.
In the fence game, the larger perimeter gives Jourdain more space to create angle and momentum on his back foot, making it harder for Phillips to trap him in corners for extended clinch wrestling. Conversely, Phillips can use the cage to press Jourdain and load his takedowns with momentum, while Jourdain's escape angles become slightly wider. In a 3-round fight format, the larger cage slightly favors Phillips' methodical approach as it gives him room to manage distance and avoid the pocket exchanges where Jourdain is most dangerous.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This fight presents a classic grappler vs finisher dynamic. Phillips' 2.31 TD15 vs Jourdain's 0.34 represents a 6.8x wrestling volume differential, while Jourdain's 47% takedown defense is the statistical weakness that Phillips will target. However, Jourdain's 0.59 Sub/15 and signature guillotine transform Phillips' greatest weapon into a potential trap. The submission threat is not academic—three straight guillotine victories demonstrate technical mastery and timing against comparable competition.
The striking comparison slightly favors Jourdain (5.43 SLpM at 49% vs Phillips' 5.04 at 43%), but Phillips' superior defensive metrics (60% StrDef vs 57%, 3.83 SApM vs 4.27) suggest he takes less damage in exchanges while maintaining efficiency. Phillips' cardio profile (12:20 avg) vs Jourdain's (11:51) indicates Phillips can sustain output over three rounds while sapping Jourdain's ability to maintain his action-fighting pace.
The fight will be decided by whether Phillips can wrestle safely enough—with proper head position and methodical shot selection—to avoid Jourdain's neck attacks while accumulating enough control time to win on the scorecards. Jourdain's path requires keeping the fight standing, closing distance on his entries, and creating chaos that prevents Phillips from systematically implementing his wrestling-centered gameplan.
🧩Key Battle Areas
1) Head Position on Entries: This is THE critical variable. Phillips must shoot from a position where his head stays on the outside of Jourdain's hips. Typical wrestling entries (ducking under, headlock-position doubles) naturally expose the neck. Phillips will likely need to favor ankle picks, low singles with arm drags, and clinch-based trips that keep his shoulders above Jourdain's waist, minimizing guillotine access. Jourdain's last three opponents all failed to maintain proper position, paying the ultimate price.
2) Early Takedown Opportunity: Phillips' wrestling volume (2.31 TD15) against Jourdain's poor takedown defense (47%) should create multiple takedown opportunities, but early rounds are critical. If Phillips can establish at least one clean takedown in R1 without eating a guillotine, he'll build confidence and control the narrative. Jourdain will be more aggressive defending once he senses Phillips' wrestling is coming—his counter-timing improves with awareness.
3) Striking Range Management: If Jourdain can keep the fight standing and pressure with his 5.43 SLpM volume, his power advantage (0.51 KD avg) and 49% striking accuracy give him genuine KO equity in any exchange. Phillips' superior striking defense (60% vs 57%) helps, but staying outside Jourdain's power range will require constant movement and distance management.
Verdict: If Phillips maintains clean head position and secures early takedowns, his wrestling advantage should be decisive over three rounds. If Jourdain keeps the fight standing long enough to force Phillips into reactive wrestling from distance, his power punching and guillotine timing create genuine upset equity.
🏁Final Prediction
Most Likely Outcome: Phillips by Decision (30%)— Phillips establishes wrestling control early, avoids the guillotine trap through careful shot selection and head positioning, and accumulates control time and points over three rounds. His superior cardio allows him to increase pressure in later rounds, and judges reward the consistent control narrative despite Jourdain's volume on the feet. This outcome assumes Phillips executes his gameplan with technical precision—safe entries, heavy top pressure, avoid scrambles.
Jourdain by Submission - Guillotine (20%) — Phillips gets careless on an entry or shoots with his head down in a scramble, and Jourdain capitalizes with lightning reflexes. His three-fight guillotine streak demonstrates this is not a one-time occurrence but a developed skill against wrestling opponents. The submission could come as early as R1 if Jourdain's timing is perfect. This is the upset lane, and it's very real.
Phillips by KO/TKO (15%) — Phillips secures top position but leans too heavily on ground-and-pound, accumulating damage that forces early ref stoppage. This path is viable if Phillips gets comfortable in top control and Jourdain turtles up rather than scrambling.
Jourdain by KO/TKO (14%) — Jourdain keeps the fight standing and catches Phillips with power shots or counters as Phillips commits to takedown entries. Jourdain's 0.51 KD average and 8 career KO/TKO wins demonstrate he has genuine finishing power that can end fights from striking exchanges.
Assessment: This is a competitive fight where style matchup matters more than raw statistics. Phillips is the better fighter on paper and favored by the betting market, but Jourdain's guillotine specialist status—three straight submission wins—makes him a dangerous underdog with a clear path to victory. The fight hinges on execution and execution only: can Phillips execute safe wrestling, or will one mistake end the fight instantly?
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 49% | Fair: +104
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Guillotine trap is real – Jourdain's 3-fight guillotine streak vs a wrestler creates genuine submission equity.
- • Phillips' losing streak matters – Two consecutive decision losses may affect confidence and urgency.
- • Jourdain's momentum – Back-to-back finishes and Performance bonuses suggest peak form at bantamweight.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kyler Phillips
Primary path via wrestling control and safe top game
Ground-and-pound accumulation from top position
Back-takes from dominant wrestling positions
💥Outcome Distribution - Charles Jourdain
Primary threat via guillotine on takedown entries
Volume striking and pocket exchanges
Requires winning striking exchanges consistently
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
R1: Feeling Out Round
Both fighters assess each other's distance and timing. Jourdain leads with his high volume (5.43 SLpM), looking to establish dominance in the striking exchanges and gauge Phillips' reflexes. Phillips will feel out the range with his jab (72" reach) and attempt to establish the idea of wrestling—testing Jourdain's takedown defense without fully committing early. Jourdain's 47% TD defense suggests he'll give up takedowns, but R1 is about establishing confidence and technique rather than pure numbers. Phillips' early shot placement is critical—if he shows clean entries, Jourdain becomes more cautious. If Jourdain catches him with power in an exchange, he can build momentum. This round sets the tone for the entire fight.
R2: Pressure & Accumulation
Phillips increases volume if he got positive results in R1. His wrestling engine kicks into higher gear, and he chains takedowns together (2.31 TD15 average suggests multiple attempts per round). Jourdain's takedown defense continues to struggle, but he gains familiarity with Phillips' shot selection. If Phillips lands clean takedowns, R2 is where he establishes control and begins banking minutes. Phillips' cardio (12:20 avg) allows him to increase pace without fatigue, while Jourdain's (11:51 avg) suggests he'll feel the grinding pressure by late R2. However, if Jourdain successfully defended early wrestling and landed power shots in R1, R2 becomes a battle for momentum where he continues pressuring and looking for the guillotine opportunity on a panicked Phillips entry.
R3: Championship Cardio
If the fight reaches R3 competitive, Phillips' cardio advantage becomes decisive. He can increase wrestling pressure knowing there's only 5 minutes left—Jourdain has no time to counter. Phillips' 12:20 average duration suggests he peaks in late rounds, while Jourdain's 11:51 suggests he tires. A competitive R3 favors Phillips heavily. Conversely, if Jourdain is ahead on the scorecards coming into R3, Phillips must take greater risks, potentially leading to desperate takedown attempts that expose his neck—Jourdain's guillotine becomes a real threat when Phillips is fighting from behind. If either fighter secured dominant position (top control or striking dominance), R3 becomes about damage accumulation and decision margins. The championship round format (same 5 minutes as R1 and R2, not extended) means Phillips' consistency advantage prevails in close fights.
⚡Window of Opportunity - Charles Jourdain
- • First 5 minutes: Highest guillotine and striking equity before wrestling control sets in.
- • Bait the shot: Invite takedown attempts to set up guillotine counter-traps.
- • Volume bursts: Pressure with combinations in open space before clinch engagements.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Kyler Phillips
- • Safe takedowns: Head-position-first entries to avoid guillotine counter.
- • Cage control: Press Jourdain to fence, limit space for volume striking.
- • Ground-and-pound: Accumulate control time and damage from top position.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via wrestling, tempered by guillotine risk and Phillips' 2-fight skid
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (4.87 vs 0.72 TD15)
- • Superior striking defense (67% vs 48% StrDef)
- • Better cardio profile (12:20 avg duration, 75% cardio score)
- • Strong TD defense (76%) limits reversal risk on ground
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Jourdain's guillotine trap on takedown entries (3 straight sub wins)
- • Phillips on 2-fight losing streak, potential confidence issues
- • Jourdain's higher striking volume (5.11 SLpM) and action-fighting style
- • Big cage gives Jourdain more space for volume striking
🏁Executive Summary
Kyler Phillips' well-rounded wrestling game should create a clear tactical advantage against Charles Jourdain in this bantamweight contest. Phillips' 4.87 TD15 vs Jourdain's 0.72 creates a massive 6.8x takedown volume differential, and his superior striking defense (67% vs 48%) allows him to minimize damage while working his entries. However, Jourdain's recent three-fight submission winning streak — all by guillotine — creates a dangerous counter-weapon that directly threatens Phillips' takedown-heavy approach. The 30-foot cage gives Jourdain space to utilize his higher striking volume (5.11 SLpM vs 4.72), but Phillips' ability to close distance and control the clinch should compress that space over three rounds. Phillips' 2-fight losing streak introduces uncertainty, but both losses came by decision to ranked opponents, suggesting his skills remain intact.
Prediction: Phillips by Decision most likely (30% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and top control; Jourdain's primary upset lane is Submission (20%) via guillotine counters on Phillips' takedown entries. This fight hinges on whether Phillips can secure safe takedowns with proper head position, or whether Jourdain can catch him in the guillotine trap that has defined his recent success.